The Guardian view
on the chances for successful US
intervention in Iraq
There is no simple confrontation between Iraq and Isis, but a three-cornered contest
between Iraq ’s
major regions, with further contests within each
Editorial
The Guardian, Monday 11 August 2014 / http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/11/guardian-view-us-intervention-iraq
President Obama had no real alternative to
the air strikes he ordered last week against Islamic State (Isis) forces. The
Yazidis and Christians of the region are in flight, and Kurdish territory
proper, even the city of Erbil ,
could be at risk. Quite apart from the threat to the future of Iraq as a whole, the US
and Britain
have a humanitarian duty to the endangered minorities, and a debt of honour to
the Kurds.
But that does not mean that this
intervention is going to be either an easy or an effective one. For one thing,
it comes after years in which the attempts of America and its allies to reshape
Iraq have gone spectacularly wrong, illustrating again and again how disastrous
has been the combination of ignorance and incompetence which has marked so many
of the coalition’s efforts in that country.
For another, it comes at a time of extreme
political volatility in every part of Iraq . There is of course no simple
confrontation between Iraq
and Isis . Instead there is a three-cornered
contest between Iraq ’s
major regions, with further contests within each part. The most extreme of
these regional contests, potentially, may be that between Isis and northern
Sunni tribal and factional groups. But the Shia south is also divided, as
Monday’s manoeuvres and counter-manoeuvres in Baghdad over the status of prime minister
Nouri al-Maliki showed. So is Kurdistan , where
longstanding rivalry between political parties and leading families has never
been overcome, and where the peshmerga, the region’s army, although nominally
united, still reflects those divisions.
The fact that Kurdistan has been a relative
success story, compared with other parts of Iraq, has obscured the fact that it
has many of the weaknesses of a typical oil-dependent state, including
corruption, too many people on the government payroll, and a foreign labour
force to do the menial as well as some of the expert jobs. This oil-based
inflation of employment extends to the armed forces, criticised as too large,
uncoordinated, too lightly equipped, and with poor logistical support.
Professional armies do not run out of ammunition after a couple of days of
combat, as some Kurd units are said to have done.
The US
is gingerly re-inserting itself into the complex political and military
landscape of Iraq ,
and Mr Obama is right to use very cautious language to describe his aims. His
Republican critics are wrong to demand a bigger and tougher air campaign,
which, as soon as it began to cause civilian casualties among ordinary Sunnis
in the north, could have the counter-productive effect of strengthening Isis . The British MPs demanding RAF participation in the
bombing as well as in the humanitarian missions, and a recall of parliament,
are equally mistaken. Let’s not make ourselves out to be more important than we
are. In any case, such bridges should be crossed when we come to them, if we
do.
Much could go wrong. First, it is not
guaranteed that American air power and the weapons it has said it will supply
to the Kurds will redress the balance between Isis
and the peshmerga. If they do, that will inevitably strengthen Kurdish demands
for independence, or something close to it. Then, even if the Kurds are able to
defend their own turf, it does not necessarily follow that they will have the
capacity, or the will, to go beyond that and attack Isis
in the Arab areas of the north.
Second, it is not guaranteed that the
inclusive government the Americans, and probably the Iranians, want to see in Baghdad will come into being or be able to mount a serious
challenge to Isis . Mr Maliki will remain an
important political player, whether or not the post of prime minister goes to
somebody else. A government plagued by Shia rivalries would not be well placed
to reach out to the northern Sunni communities who are now either with Isis or just keeping their heads down.
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