UK held back by staff shortages, Brexit and mortgage costs, says top economist

 

UK held back by staff shortages, Brexit and mortgage costs, says top economist

 

Paul Johnson responds to IMF warning that UK will be weakest major G7 economy this year

Britain the only G7 economy forecast to shrink in 2023

 

Larry Elliott Economics editor

Tue 31 Jan 2023 10.30 GMT

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/31/uk-staff-shortages-brexit-mortgage-paul-johnson-imf

 

A shortage of workers, expensive mortgages and the continuing effects of Brexit are all weighing on the economy as the UK shapes up to be the weakest major G7 economy this year, the head of a leading thinktank has said.

 

Paul Johnson, the director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said there were special factors holding back growth in the UK as politicians and analysts responded to a warning from the International Monetary Fund that the UK economy would shrink by 0.3% in 2023.

 

Speaking on Radio 4’s Today Programme on Tuesday, Johnson said the UK’s performance did not look quite so bad if 2022 and 2023 were considered together, since the IMF estimated growth of 4.1% last year would be the highest in the G7.

 

But Johnson said other countries were not being affected to the same extent as the UK by shortages of labour – identified by the IMF as one factor holding back the UK. Johnson said the UK labour force had half a million fewer people than before the pandemic as a result of people retiring early and fewer EU immigrants.

 

“That’s not affecting any other country in Europe … That’s a particular challenge for us,” the IFS director said. The continuing “challenges from Brexit” and the rapid impact of higher interest rates on mortgage costs were also factors, he added.

 

Despite the gloomy IMF forecasts in its World Economic Outlook update, the Bank of England is expected to raise interest rates on Thursday by 0.5 percentage points to 4%. Threadneedle Street is, however, also likely to upgrade its forecasts for the economy after a its stronger-than-envisaged performance in late 2022.

 

The transport minister, Richard Holden, said the IMF had been wrong before and predicted the UK would do better than expected this year. Speaking on Times Radio, Holden said: “They’ve been wrong in the last two years, the OECD were also wrong over the last two years. I think Britain can beat those predictions.”

 

Rachel Reeves, Labour’s shadow chancellor, said: “Britain has huge potential – but too many signs are pointing towards really difficult times for our economy, leaving us lagging behind our peers.

 

“The government should be doing all it can to make our economy stronger and to get it growing. It is the only way that we can move beyond lurching from crisis to crisis as we have been for far too long. Labour has a proper plan for growth that will get our economy back on track.”

 

Sophie Lund-Yates, a lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: “The UK is facing some specific problems, including its overexposure to high energy retail prices, which are weighing on household budgets. The UK also has a significant labour problem, which was initially caused by Brexit but has been made worse by a shrinking workforce since the pandemic.

 

“Mortgage rates are also prohibitively high in the UK, which adds further pressure to the economy because it limits how much money people will spend on non-essentials. Ultimately, the UK has a productivity and demand problem, which when put together creates a very difficult environment.

 

“There’s a chance the UK could muster a better performance than the IMF is predicting, given upgrades to expectations from other bodies in recent months.”

UK economy to do ‘worse than Russia’, warns IMF on Brexit anniversary

Why is the UK economy doing worse than the rest of the G7?

 

Explainer

Why is the UK economy doing worse than the rest of the G7?

 

Factors behind IMF’s latest forecast which shows UK will be only large economy to contract this year

Union flag flying in Britain on 31 January this year, the date marking the 3rd anniversary of Brexit when the UK left the EU.

 

Richard Partington Economics correspondent

@RJPartington

Tue 31 Jan 2023 16.07 GMT

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/jan/31/why-the-uk-economy-is-shrinking-fast

 

The International Monetary Fund has warned that Britain is expected to be the only large industrialised country to face a shrinking economy this year.

 

The Washington-based fund upgraded its forecast for most leading economies but said it expected the UK economy to contract by 0.6% this year – a level 0.9 percentage points worse than that which it had pencilled in just three months ago, and slower even than that for sanctions-hit Russia.

 

Here are five reasons why the UK is suffering a worse performance.

 

Cost of living

With inflation above 10%, household budgets can be stretched. While the annual growth in consumer prices is expected to slow this year – with Rishi Sunak setting a target to halve the inflation rate – the cost of living is still rising, though at a slightly slower rate than late in 2022.

 

The IMF said “still-high energy retail prices” would continue to weigh on households. The government has capped energy bills for typical usage at £2,500 annually on average, rising to £3,000 a year from April, and lasting until 31 March 2024.

 

After a fall in wholesale gas prices early this year some analysts expect bills could fall below the cap to about £2,200 from July. However, this figure is still about double the level late in 2021.

 

Tax increases

The IMF said “tighter fiscal and monetary policies” would also hit people this year – referring to tax and spending measures set by the Treasury and interest rates from the Bank of England.

 

After the financial meltdown triggered by Liz Truss’ “mini budget” Jeremy Hunt reversed the majority of those unfunded tax cuts. Higher taxes could dampen consumer spending power and weigh on business investment. By 2027-28 tax as a share of GDP is set to reach the highest level since the second world war.

 

Last September the IMF criticised the plans of the former prime minister Truss in a rare public rebuke, urging her to reconsider to prevent stoking inequality. Sunak is under pressure from the Conservative right for tax cuts. Others have suggested higher taxes on wealth could help balance the books.

 

Higher interest rates

The Bank of England is poised to raise interest rates on Thursday for the 10th time since late 2021, with an increase in the base rate to 4%. Economists expect this higher cost of borrowing to add to pressure on households and businesses.

 

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As many as 2.7 million home owners with short-term, fixed-rate, mortgages are expected to pay at least £100 a month more to refinance their borrowing at the higher rates. With consumers and firms likely to rein in their spending to help meet higher borrowing costs, this could weigh on economic activity.

 

Labour shortages

Britain has suffered a decline in employment since the Covid-19 pandemic, fuelled by rapid growth in economic inactivity – a term used by statisticians to define when working-age adults are neither in a job nor looking for work. Older workers have retired early and there have been record levels of long-term sickness.

 

Unemployment in the UK could be three times higher than shown by official government figures, according to the Centre for Cities thinktank, which has said that more than three million working-age adults who report themselves as economically inactive could be added to official jobless figures.

 

Tougher post-Brexit migration rules are also adding to the shortages. The thinktanks UK in a Changing Europe, and the Centre for European Reform, estimate there that there is a shortfall of more than 300,000 workers due to the end to “free movement”.

 

Brexit

Business leaders warn that Brexit red tape and costs are harming UK trade. After an initial 40% drop in UK exports to the EU in the first month after the end of the Brexit transition period, overall trade volumes recovered. However, the UK has lagged behind the performance of other large economies.

 

According to figures from the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis – which tracks trends in global trade – UK goods export volumes remained 3.3% below their 2018 average in October, in contrast to an average 4.4% increase seen across all advanced economies.

Watch in full: Special programme on UK economy after IMF warning

Sunak tries to remain above fray as public sector strikes continue

 

Analysis

Sunak tries to remain above fray as public sector strikes continue

Heather Stewart

PM likely to find it increasingly difficult to stay out of debate as industrial action escalates

 

Rishi Sunak has largely chosen to stay out of the public debate over industrial action.

Tue 31 Jan 2023 15.00 GMT

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jan/31/sunak-tries-to-remain-above-fray-as-public-sector-strikes-continue

 

As teachers prepare to join the latest wave of industrial action battering Rishi Sunak’s government this week, there is little sign of either side backing down.

 

Teachers in England and Wales will strike on Wednesday, alongside university staff, train drivers and 100,000 civil servants across scores of separate workplaces.

 

Nurses and ambulance workers will follow next week in an unprecedented joint stoppage, raising the stakes in their long-running dispute yet higher.

 

“People are adding it to a long list of ‘things wrong with the country’,” says James Johnson, of the pollsters JL Partners.

 

Sunak’s strategy appears to be to hold firm, perhaps in the hope that public support falls away, helping to squeeze striking workers into settling for minor concessions.

 

Ministers hope they can confine these to the coming year’s pay round, after Jeremy Hunt’s March budget. No 10 has suggested any pay rise above about 3.5% would have to come with improvements to “productivity and efficiency”.

 

But union leaders have continued to insist their members need more money now, to help them cope with double-digit inflation and start to reverse years of real-terms cuts.

 

“Good leaders are good listeners, something that seems to be beyond this government,” says Gary Smith, general secretary of the GMB. “Ambulance workers and NHS staff have been telling ministers that our health service is in crisis because it can’t recruit and retain the people it needs. The starting point is to talk pay now.”

 

One Labour frontbencher suggested the government might be hoping the teachers’ strikes, which kicked off in England and Wales this week and have been running in Scotland for some time, have enough impact on the public’s lives to undermine any sympathy they might have.

 

“They’re obviously holding out for the teachers, because that tends to be the least popular of any strike. I think they are absolutely counting on that as being the tipping point,” they said, suggesting this was a misreading of the public mood.

 

Recent polling by Ipsos put support for teachers’ strikes at 41%, with 33% opposed. Public support for the nurses’ strikes waned significantly, from 59% in November to 45% this month, as the dispute drags on. But that still outweighed the 30% of those surveyed who were against.

 

And, crucially for any hopes ministers may have of winning the PR battle, when asked whom they blamed for the strikes continuing, 57% said the government.

 

Luke Tryl, of the thinktank More in Common, which carries out focus groups (including for the Guardian) says: “Part of the reason the government strategy of ‘stick it to the unions’ isn’t working, is that people’s approval of the government is so low, that their general inclination is not to take the government’s side on the issue.”

 

Union insiders believe it has also helped their cause that many of the current crop of general secretaries are some distance from the stereotype of the “union baron” – not least because they are women.

 

Christina McAnea of Unison, Pat Cullen of the Royal College of Nursing and Sharon Graham of Unite have repeatedly stressed the parlous state of public services, as well as the demands of their cash-strapped, burnt-out members.

 

The University and College Union’s Jo Grady is a 38-year-old academic, whose specialist subject is trade unions and pension disputes. As a collective, they hardly give the impression of being shadowy union fat cats.

 

“We all know that the last 13 years have taken the NHS to breaking point,” Graham says. ‘“We have over 130,000 unfilled vacancies and more people are leaving every day. So the strikes have huge public support because the public understands that these workers who came out in the pandemic are fighting not only for better pay but also to save the NHS from this act of national self-harm being perpetuated by the government.”

 

Some cabinet ministers have appeared more hardline than others in recent weeks.

 

The transport secretary, Mark Harper, has allowed the Rail Delivery Group to make a fresh offer in the long-running rail dispute, which is currently being considered by the RMT.

 

That marked a sharp contrast to his predecessor the keenly political Grant Shapps, who declined to meet with rail unions.

 

The health secretary, Steve Barclay, has appeared to flip-flop between an amenable “my door is open” approach, to a much more accusatory tone, warning that striking ambulance workers had “made a conscious choice to inflict harm on patients”, for example. Reports that he was preparing to offer a one-off hardship payment to unblock the talks earlier this month were quickly denied.

 

Unison’s head of health, Sara Gorton, who has been involved in the negotiations, says: “It looked like the tide had begun to turn with some ministers finally prepared to talk about pay. But now it feels as if the government’s digging in, and strikes are set to escalate.”

 

At the same time, the government is pressing ahead with its minimum service levels bill. Aimed at blunting future strikes, the unions see the controversial legislation as a declaration of war. Keir Starmer has said a Labour government would repeal it.

 

I have never seen an abdication of leadership like this in all my days

Some Conservative MPs, including the former party chair Jake Berry, have dared to suggest the £1,400 across-the-board offer for nursing staff is “too low” and should be increased.

 

But Hunt has stuck carefully to the line that he cannot revisit this year’s pay deals, for fear of unleashing a fresh round of inflation.

 

A Treasury source says: “We’ve already been clear that we’re not reopening this year’s pay process. We’re going to keep saying that, because it’s not changing.

 

“We don’t want to do anything that risks embedding high prices into our economy for any longer than is necessary.”

 

Kate Bell, the TUC’s deputy general secretary, argues that the Treasury’s stance makes little economic sense.

 

“Of course we’ve had a high inflationary environment, but I think everyone is pretty aware that it’s come from external factors, not internal pay pressure,” she says. “We’re now facing a very real threat of a recession, and government’s key message seems to be, ‘We’d like to hold down the pay of public sector workers.’”

 

She adds that private sector pay growth has been running at more than twice the rate of the public sector (7.1% in the latest official data, against 3.3% for public sector workers). A number of industrial disputes in the private sector – between the Communication Workers Union and call centre workers at BT, for example – have been settled with additional pay increases.

 

Sunak, whose leadership has been in the spotlight over sleaze, has largely chosen to stay out of the public debate over industrial action, aside from repeatedly describing the government’s approach as “reasonable”.

 

Graham says: “If any private sector strike was at the stage of the NHS dispute the chief executive would be in the room negotiating. Rishi Sunak is effectively the government’s chief executive and should be leading the negotiations. Instead he is posted missing.

 

“I have never seen an abdication of leadership like this in all my days.”

 

With more strike days planned across the NHS – including a simultaneous stoppage by nurses and ambulance workers next week – it seems unlikely Sunak will be able to remain above the fray for much longer.

Press Preview: Wednesday's papers

Helena Bonham Carter Throws Major Shade At Harry: 'The Crown Shouldn't Continue After His Memoir'

‘I don’t think they should carry on’: Helena Bonham Carter says Netflix should have ended The Crown in 2020

 

‘I should be careful,’ show’s former star said while sharing controversial view

 

Jacob Stolworthy

https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/helena-bonham-carter-the-crown-netflix-b2271418.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2koY9DUdL7238XbxEmGXUXHZakzxUbHW155d6tqEIWPQog16V8XdX37Z8#Echobox=1674996983

 

Helena Bonham Carter has said she thinks Netflix should have ended The Crown before the latest season.

 

The actor made the claim despite starring in the show just two years ago.

 

Bonham Carter joined the cast for its third season, succeeding Vanessa Kirby as Princess Margaret.

 

Her time on the show came to an end when season four was released in November 2020, following which she was replaced by Lesley Manville.

 

However, the Harry Potter actor, who said she “should be careful” with how she words her opinion, believes the show should have ended with season four.

 

“I don’t think they should carry on, actually,” she told The Guardian.

 

“I’m in it and I loved my episodes, but it’s very different now.”

 

She continued: “When The Crown started, it was a historic drama, and now it’s crashed into the present. But that’s up to them.”

 

Bonham Carter has long been vocal about her belief that the show had a “moral responsibility” to add disclaimers to the start of each episode to indiciate it is a work of “dramatised” fiction.

 

“I do feel very strongly, because I think we have a moral responsibility to say, ‘Hang on guys, this is not … it’s not a drama-doc, we’re making a drama,’” she said while promoting the series in 2020.

 

Helena Bonham Carter doesn’t think ‘The Crown’ should still be on

 

However, she praised showrunner Peter Morgan for his extensive research, which she called “amazing”, adding: “That is the proper documentary. That is amazing and then Peter switches things up and juggles.”

 

The latest season of The Crown focuses on the breakdown of Charles and Diana’s marriage, and the sixth and final season will controversially feature scenes depicting Diana’s death.

 

Bonham Carter will next be seen playing TV star Noelle Gordon in Russell T Davies’ Nolly. it will be available to stream on iTVX from 2 February.

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Ukraine wants to join EU within two years, PM says

 

Ukraine wants to join EU within two years, PM says

 

Brussels says: ‘Not so fast.’

 

BY SUZANNE LYNCH

JANUARY 30, 2023 4:00 AM CET

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-eu-membership-two-years-prime-minister-denys-shmyhal/

 

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has a tight two-year timetable for securing EU membership that is bound to dominate discussions at this week’s historic EU-Ukraine summit, the first to take place on Ukrainian soil.

 

The problem? No one within the EU thinks this is realistic.

 

When EU commissioners travel to Kyiv later this week ahead of Friday’s summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the heads of the European Commission and Council, their main task is likely to involve managing expectations.

 

Shmyhal himself is imposing a tough deadline. “We have a very ambitious plan to join the European Union within the next two years,” he told POLITICO. “So we expect that this year, in 2023, we can already have this pre-entry stage of negotiations,” he said.

 

 

French President Emmanuel Macron said last year it could be “decades” before Ukraine joins. Even EU leaders, who backed granting Ukraine candidate status at their summit last June, privately admit that the prospect of the country actually joining is quite some years away (and may be one reason they backed the idea in the first place.) After all, candidate countries like Serbia, Turkey and Montenegro have been waiting for many years, since 1999 in Ankara’s case.

 

Ukraine is a conundrum for the EU. Many argue that Brussels has a particular responsibility to Kyiv. It was, after all, Ukrainians’ fury at the decision of President Viktor Yanukovych to pull out of a political and economic association agreement with the EU at Russia’s behest that triggered the Maidan uprising of 2014 and set the stage for war. As European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen put it: Ukraine is “the only country where people got shot because they wrapped themselves in a European flag.”

 

Ukraine’s close allies in the EU such as Poland and the Baltic countries strongly support Kyiv’s membership push, seeing it as a democracy resisting an aggressor. Many of the EU old guard are far more wary, however, as Ukraine — a global agricultural superpower — could dilute their own powers and perks. Ukraine and Poland — with a combined population of 80 million — could team up to rival Germany as a political force in the European Council and some argue Kyiv would be an excessive drain on the EU budget. 

 

Short-term deliverables

Friday’s summit in Kyiv — the first EU meeting of its kind to take place in an active war zone — will be about striking the right balance.

 

Though EU national leaders will not be in attendance, European Council officials have been busy liaising with EU member states about the final communiqué.

 

Some countries are insisting the statement should not stray far from the language used at the June European Council — emphasizing that while the future of Ukraine lies within the European Union, aspirant countries need to meet specific criteria. “Expectation is quite high in Kyiv, but there is a need to fulfill all the conditions that the Commission has set out. It’s a merit-based process,” said one senior EU official.

 

Ukraine is a conundrum for the EU. Many argue that Brussels has a particular responsibility to Kyiv | Sergei Supinsky/AFP via Getty Images

Still, progress is expected when Zelenskyy meets with von der Leyen and European Council President Charles Michel.

 

Shmyhal told POLITICO he hopes Ukraine can achieve a “substantial leap forward” on Friday, particularly in specific areas — an agreement on a visa-free regime for industrial goods; the suspension of customs duties on Ukrainian exports for another year; and “active progress” on joining the SEPA (Single Euro Payments Area) payments scheme and the inclusion of Ukraine into the EU’s mobile roaming area. 

 

“We expect progress and acceleration on our path towards signing these agreements,” he said.

 

Anti-corruption campaign

The hot topic — and one of the central question marks over Ukraine’s EU accession — will be Ukraine’s struggle against corruption. The deputy infrastructure minister was fired and deputy foreign minister stepped down this month over scandals related to war profiteering in public contracts.

 

“We need a reformed Ukraine,” said one senior EU official centrally involved in preparations for the summit. “We cannot have the same Ukraine as before the war.”

 

Shmyhal insisted that the Zelenskyy government is taking corruption seriously. “We have a zero-tolerance approach to corruption,” he said, pointing to the “lightning speed” with which officials were removed this month. “Unfortunately, corruption was not born yesterday, but we are certain that we will uproot corruption,” he said, openly saying that it’s key to the country’s EU accession path.

 

He also said the government was poised to revise its recent legislation on the country’s Constitutional Court to meet the demands of both the European Commission and the Venice Commission, an advisory body of the Council of Europe. Changes could come as early as this week, ahead of the summit, Shmyhal said.

 

Though Ukraine has announced a reform of the Constitutional Court, particularly on how judges are appointed, the Venice Commission still has concerns about the powers and composition of the advisory group of experts, the body which selects candidates for the court. The goal is to avoid political interference.

 

Shmyhal said these questions will be addressed. “We are holding consultations with the European Commission to see that all issued conclusions may be incorporated into the text,” he told POLITICO.

 

Nonetheless, the symbolic power of this week’s summit is expected to send a strong message to Moscow about Ukraine’s European aspirations.

 

European Council President Michel used his surprise visit to Kyiv this month to reassure Ukraine that EU membership will be a reality for Ukraine, telling the Ukrainian Rada (parliament) that he dreams that one day a Ukrainian will hold his job as president of the European Council.

 

“Ukraine is the EU and the EU is Ukraine,” he said. “We must spare no effort to turn this promise into reality as fast as we can.”

 

The key question for Ukrainians after Friday’s meeting will be how fast the rhetoric and promises can become a reality.

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Qatargate: EU ombudsman tells Parliament to beef up ‘limited’ ethics committee

 

Qatargate: EU ombudsman tells Parliament to beef up ‘limited’ ethics committee

 

The assembly’s ethics body operates largely in secret.

The ombudsman sent a largely positive-sounding letter to Metsola, welcoming her "determination" to clean up the Parliament |

 

BY EDDY WAX

JANUARY 30, 2023 12:52 PM CET

https://www.politico.eu/article/qatargate-eu-ombudsman-emily-oreilly-european-parliament-ethics-committee-corruption-roberta-metsola/

 

A European Parliament committee tasked with policing the behavior of MEPs should be strengthened in the wake of the Qatargate corruption scandal, EU Ombudsman Emily O’Reilly told Parliament President Roberta Metsola on Monday.

 

The ombudsman sent a largely positive-sounding letter to Metsola, welcoming her “determination” to clean up the Parliament and praising some of her 14 proposals such as creating an integrity portal on the institution’s website and introducing a strict cooling-off period banning former MEPs from lobbying the Parliament.

 

O’Reilly also zoomed in on the Parliament’s only ethics body, an advisory committee formed of five MEPs whose role is to ensure that MEPs stick to an ethics code that sets out integrity rules in areas like financial conflicts of interests, declaring gifts or paid-for foreign trips. The committee’s MEPs are appointed by the president and advise her on how to sanction MEPs who fall foul of the rules. The committee operates largely in secret, only publishing one report per year which doesn’t name specific MEPs who’ve been punished.

 

“The Advisory Committee monitors the Code of Conduct but has limited powers. Addressing this implies strengthening the independence of the Committee, granting it powers proactively to monitor, investigate and ensure compliance with ethics rules, and providing it with sufficient resources,” O’Reilly wrote in her letter to Metsola. O’Reilly, whose recommendations aren’t binding, added that there should be more transparency about the way the ethics body operates.

 

Metsola’s plan is already facing resistance from senior MEPs, while there are attacks from the left that the proposals fall short of what MEPs voted for in December. One of Metsola’s 14 points focuses on “strengthening the Code of Conduct Committee” but gives little detail about how this will be achieved, according to a version of the plans dated January 12.

 

O’Reilly also called on Metsola to publish a timeline of the next steps on the internal reforms. “I look forward to the detailed proposals giving effect to the general approach you have outlined, to see how the reform will be implemented in practice,” the ombudsman wrote.

 

Sarah Wheaton contributed reporting.

In full: Defence Secretary Ben Wallace answers questions on the British ...

The Problem with Britain’s Economy | UK Economy

Crise da Habitação em Lisboa gera onda de movimentos cívicos com vontade de sair à rua. “Temos de agir agora”

 

Crise da Habitação em Lisboa gera onda de movimentos cívicos com vontade de sair à rua. “Temos de agir agora”

 

A crise na Habitação já atinge tudo e todos e todas as classes. A sociedade civil une-se e dá o seu tempo por um novo movimento apartidário em torno do direito à habitação. Quem são estes movimentos e quais as suas lutas?

 

por Ana da Cunha e Daniela Oliveira

24.01.2023

https://amensagem.pt/2023/01/24/habitacao-crise-lisboa-casas-jovens-movimentos-civicos-grupos-manifestacao-pessoas-futuro-sair-rua/

 

A vida da investigadora Ana Gago mudou quando recebeu um telefonema da senhoria a anunciar que teria de sair de casa dentro de uma semana. O mesmo aconteceu com Rafael Pinheiro, formado em Jornalismo e a viver num T1 em Sintra por 500 euros. “Percebi que era insustentável”, diz ele. Saiu e regressou para a casa dos pais.

 

Ambos quiseram tornar essa luta, que era deles, numa luta de todos.

 

Ana levou-a para o seu trabalho, investigando sobre habitação, gentrificação, desalojamento, turismo urbano. Tornou-se membro da associação Habita!, e hoje é uma das dinamizadoras do Movimento Referendo pela Habitação, que tem enchido as ruas de Lisboa com cartazes e testemunhos da enorme e grave crise da habitação na cidade.

 

Para Rafael, hoje com 30 anos, foi preciso que a crise de habitação atingisse um “cúmulo novo”, como ele descreve, para entrar em ação. “A maioria das pessoas que eu conheço, do ponto de vista habitacional, está numa situação precária”. Essa urgência levou-o a unir-se ao amigo Christopher Alves, de 28 anos e da área do audiovisual, para lançar a petição “Pela Proteção do Direito à Habitação Contra a Especulação Imobiliária”.

 

Ana e Rafael são exemplos de uma nova luta que se começou a travar perante uma crise bem real e que todos começam a sentir na pele, ou de alguém que conhecem: jovens adultos de todas as classes não conseguem sair de casa dos pais ou vivem enclausurados em casas partilhadas, famílias não conseguem ter filhos, casais não se conseguem separar, idosos são obrigados a escolher entre pagar medicamentos ou a renda.

 

A situação não é nova, mas a onda de descontentamento tem-se propagado pelas redes sociais, dando conta de novos dados que apontam que o preço médio das casas em Lisboa é mais alto do que em Madrid ou Milão (da plataforma Casari), e de que Portugal está entre os dez países da zona euro onde rendas e preços das casas mais sobem (dados da Eurostat).

 

O direito pela habitação sai à rua

Nas redes, várias figuras públicas congregam testemunhos e insatisfação. A jornalista Diana Duarte começou por falar do seu caso no Instagram, e acabou com a caixa de correio entupida com a quantidade de mensagens de horror.

 

“Tenho reunido alguns testemunhos”, conta Diana. “Histórias de pessoas que vivem em caves, outras com baratas. Há quem não consiga ter filhos, há casais que com dois salários não conseguem comprar casa”.

 

O que era uma conversa de redes sociais acabou por se tornar num movimento quando Diana uniu esforços com o humorista Diogo Faro para começar a organizar uma manifestação, que se pretende apartidária, e que vai sair às ruas no dia 1 de abril.

 

O movimento já está anunciado, sedimentado em encontros, telefonemas, grupos de WhatsApp. “Não nos fazia sentido que fosse cada um para seu lado. É preciso unir esforços!”

 

Esta semana, a jornalista e entrevistadora do programa A Minha Geração na Antena 3 partihou uma story no Instagram onde dava conta de muitas das questões que afligem os que neste momento precisam de uma casa e não a conseguem arranjar.

 

Rafael Pinheiro explica por palavras dele o fenómeno que hoje se está a viver: “Há pessoas que estavam despolitizadas e que agora estão cada vez com mais vontade de sair à rua”.

 

Se a crise da habitação não é nova, novos são muitos daqueles que estão a despertar de outra forma para o problema. “O ativismo tem aumentado. Dantes podia haver contestação, mas era muito mais restringida às redes sociais. Agora, a crise instalou-se de tal forma… o receio do futuro motivou as pessoas”, diz Christopher.

 

É isso que a conjuntura atual tem provocado: que novas vozes se levantem por um direito que consideram delas e cuja ausência lhes congela vidas, futuro e planos. Este sentimento de estagnação e de não conseguir fazer nada sobre isso é o que perpassa nas redes sociais. Mas não só. Também já há raiva.

 

“Medidas recentes como os vistos gold e os nómadas digitais levaram a que as pessoas se sentissem mais ofendidas”, argumenta Christopher. “E quando se começa a sentir a ofensa, as pessoas partem para outro tipo de movimentação, de contestação”.

 

Uma petição ou um “pequeno programa político”

Rafael despertou para a luta ao lidar com a crise de habitação na pele. Mas agora também os seus pais estão a sofrer: “A casa onde vivem foi comprada por uma empresa de investimento imobiliário e não lhes foi dada a oportunidade de exercer o direito de preferência”. Neste momento, a empresa está a pedir o dobro do valor pelo qual comprou a casa, e está pressionar os pais para sair.

 

Christopher, que já conhecia Rafael desde os tempos da faculdade, juntou-se à luta do amigo. Ele, que sempre teve consciência política, tem amigos que vivem esta crise habitacional com grande preocupação, mesmo que agora não seja o seu caso. “Julgo que só há uma forma de estar na vida e é a ajudar, fazendo algum ativismo”, diz ele. “Ninguém está imune”.

 

Rafael e Christopher ainda equacionaram a hipótese de avançar com uma iniciativa legislativa de cidadãos ou com uma proposta de referendo, mas sentiram que não teriam o “know-how” para tal. O resultado final é esta petição, que Rafael vê como um “pequeno programa político” e que já reuniu mais de 5 mil assinaturas.

 

Algumas das alterações da lei exigidas na petição:

 

·      Revogação do direito à oposição à renovação de contrato de arrendamento pelas empresas em imóveis nos quais habitem inquilinos com contrato de arrendamento;

·      Limites máximos aos valores de arrendamento;

·      Proibição de que o senhorio exija outros valores para além do mês de caução;

 

Para levarem a petição à Assembleia da República, são necessárias 7500 assinaturas. Mas Rafael está ciente que a luta é difícil: “Nós sabemos quais são as sensibilidades atuais do Parlamento, e sabemos que é muito improvável que haja uma resposta adequada”.

 

Entretanto, mais três amigos juntaram-se à luta, e agora são cinco a gerir as páginas das redes sociais onde fazem uma ampla divulgação da petição, com Rafael mais responsável pelos textos e Christopher pela parte gráfica.

 

O referendo pelo direito à habitação e contra o Alojamento Local sem regras

No dia em que o Movimento Referendo pela Habitação ocupou o Largo do Intendente para recolher assinaturas, ouvia-se: “O diagnóstico está feito! Temos é de agir agora”. Ana Gago, a liderar o protesto, resumia: “Estamos a canalizar todo o descontentamento numa ação concreta”.

 

Ou seja, um referendo. Ela, que já anda na luta há algum tempo, uniu-se a um grupo de estudantes, investigadores, trabalhadores, reformados portugueses e estrangeiros que tinham como objetivo criar um referendo que travasse o Alojamento Local em prédios de habitação.

 

O mote deu-se quando a Câmara Municipal de Lisboa aprovou um novo prolongamento por seis meses da suspensão aplicada à emissão de novas licenças de AL em 11 freguesias.

 

Para o referendo ser submetido a votação na Assembleia Municipal, são necessárias 5 mil assinaturas. Mas Ana não quer ficar por aqui: “Só com mais assinaturas se criará uma base forte de apoio de forma a que os deputados não possam votar contra a implementação do referendo”.

 

As questões a levar à Assembleia Municipal são as seguintes:

 

·      Concorda em alterar o Regulamento Municipal do Alojamento Local no sentido de a Câmara Municipal de Lisboa, no prazo de 180 dias, ordenar o cancelamento dos alojamentos locais registados em imóveis destinados a habitação?

·      Concorda em alterar o Regulamento Municipal do Alojamento Local para que deixem de ser permitidos alojamentos locais em imóveis destinados à habitação?

·      Caso a primeira pergunta seja aprovada, o movimento acredita que a Câmara Municipal de Lisboa será obrigada a devolver aos Alojamentos Locais a sua função habitacional. Se a segunda pergunta for aprovada, evita-se que a autarquia volte a permitir o registo de alojamentos locais em imóveis destinados a habitação.

 

 

Os jovens, os despejos, as ocupações

A luta de Rafael e de Ana começou há muito para outras pessoas. Há quem reivindique o direito à habitação há mais de cem anos, na verdade, como é o caso da Associação dos Inquilinos Lisbonenses. Mas a maioria dos movimentos terá surgido quando palavras como “gentrificação” ou “turistificação” entraram no léxico da cidade.

 

São exemplos disso a Habita!, que surgiu em 2005/2006, inicialmente para apoiar os imigrantes nos bairros da periferia que estavam a ser demolidos pelas Câmaras Municipais para desalojar, vender ou comprar terrenos. Entretanto, a associação tem travado outras lutas, apoiando quem não tem acesso ao mercado de arrendamento.

 

Na mesma lógica, em 2017 surgia o Morar em Lisboa, quando um conjunto de associações redigiu uma Carta Aberta dirigida ao governo, aos deputados, ao município e aos cidadãos. “A carta surgiu numa altura em que a habitação ainda não merecia a atenção que hoje tem”, admite Maria de Lurdes Pinheiro, presidente da Associação do Património e População de Alfama (APPA), que integra o Morar em Lisboa desde o início.

 

Para ela, o Morar em Lisboa incentivou a mudança: “Na altura, ia haver eleições autárquicas e nenhum programa eleitoral contemplava a preocupação com a habitação”. Imagine-se. Há apenas seis anos.

 

Com o movimento, organizou-se uma manifestação de reivindicação, debates e reuniões. Dois anos mais tarde, surgia a muito aguardada Lei de Bases da Habitação, reivindicada na Carta Aberta. Mas Maria de Lurdes diz que em pouco alterou o cenário na altura: “A especulação imobiliária mantém-se, a gentrificação mantém-se”.

 

“O excesso de turismo na cidade, esta facilitação da entrada e permanência de pessoas que não tem ligação à cidade, como os nómadas digitais, tudo isto está a transformar a cidade num tabuleiro de monopólio, retirando casas a quem vive, estuda e trabalha em Lisboa”, acusa Teresa Mamede, da Habita!.

 

Mas que novas realidades têm sido expostas pela mais recente crise habitacional? “Os jovens têm muitos problemas no arrendamento privado”, diz Teresa. “Os contratos não renováveis são um mecanismo que está a ser muito usado pelos senhorios para poderem trocar de inquilinos, subindo muito as rendas”.

 

Mas o problema não fica por aqui. Mesmo aqueles com contratos renováveis podem ter problemas: senhorios que os forçam a sair, cortando-lhes a água ou a luz, causando-lhes medo. E há quem recorra à tática das cauções, exigindo um ano de renda adiantada.

 

As dificuldades do mercado de arrendamento não se limitam aos jovens. E Maria de Lurdes sabe isso bem, já foi presidente da Junta da extinta freguesia de Santo Estevão e muitas vezes ainda acompanha os despejos dos mais idosos. “A questão da habitação é muito complicada, o turismo afasta e expulsa as pessoas do bairro de Alfama”.

 

É uma realidade que muitas vezes leva a situações de ocupação selvagem de casas devolutas. Situações complexas que quer a Habita!, quer a APPA acompanham. “Estamos a acompanhar um grupo de pessoas que ocuparam uma casa da Câmara há alguns anos. A Câmara enviou-lhes uma carta para saírem voluntariamente”, conta Maria de Lurdes.

 

“Estas pessoas querem pagar uma renda mas não têm hipótese disso. E não conseguem aceder aos programas de apoio à habitação. Ou ficam em filas de espera durante anos… E esta decisão de ocupar as casas vazias é, no nosso entender, legítima”, defende Maria João Costa, da Habita! e da Stop Despejos.

 

São lutas às quais se juntam estas novas vozes. Não querem, de longe, substituir-se uns aos outros. “Queremos encorajar as pessoas a abrirem-se a estes movimentos”, diz Rafael Pinheiro.

 

Especialmente neste momento crítico, em que se atinge um “ponto sem retorno”, acrescenta. “Tem que ver com a inflação, com o clima económico que se gerou com a guerra, e tem que ver com o acumular de uma série de alterações legislativas que começaram em 1990 e se arrastaram ao longo do tempo… esse acumular trouxe-nos aqui”.

 

ANA DA CUNHA

Nasceu no Porto, há 26 anos, mas desde 2019 que faz do Alfa Pendular a sua casa. Em Lisboa, descobriu o amor às histórias, ouvindo-as e contando-as na Avenida de Berna, na Universidade Nova de Lisboa.

O que mudariam os jovens no país? Tectos para rendas e fim das propinas

 

 JOVENS

O que mudariam os jovens no país? Tectos para rendas e fim das propinas

 

Estudo da Católica inquiriu 900 jovens sobre modos de participação sociais e cívicos. Renovar os quadros, apoiar o empreendedorismo e acabar com os recibos verdes são algumas das sugestões.

 

Ana Bacelar Begonha

30 de Janeiro de 2023, 13:22

https://www.publico.pt/2023/01/30/p3/noticia/mudariam-jovens-pais-tectos-rendas-fim-propinas-2036921

 

Além de aferir a participação política dos jovens, concluindo que os jovens são activos politicamente, um novo estudo da Universidade Católica para o Conselho Nacional de Juventude (CNJ) elabora um retrato sobre a capacidade de emancipação dos mais novos que, à primeira vista, parece positivo. Do universo de mais de 900 jovens inquiridos, entre os 18 e os 30 anos, 48,2% estão empregados e 46,5% dizem “viver razoavelmente”, existindo apenas 19,9% que consideram “ser difícil viver com o rendimento que auferem”.

 

Estas percentagens podem, contudo, estar relacionadas com o facto de o grosso dos jovens serem estudantes (58,8%) e ainda viverem com a família (83%) ou numa casa da família (72,8%). Especialmente, se tivermos em conta que a maioria dos jovens que “dizem ser muito difícil viver com os seus rendimentos” vivem numa casa arrendada (46,7%).

 

O estudo

O "Estudo sobre a participação política juvenil em Portugal: resultados de um inquérito online e de grupos de discussão com jovens" foi realizado no âmbito do projecto "Politicamente desperto: mais informação, melhor participação", por Raquel Matos, Mónica Soares, Joana Torres e Rui Leandro Maia. Os autores realizaram um inquérito online a 931 jovens entre os 18 e os 30 anos de idade, entre 23 de Fevereiro e 31 de Maio de 2022, e entrevistas a 12 grupos de foco de jovens.

 

Na verdade, 67,3% “admite viver numa situação precária” devido aos baixos salários, ao vínculo laboral, à falta de progressão na carreira ou à dificuldade de conciliar a vida profissional com a familiar.

 

O estudo sugere, por isso, que os jovens passam por “múltiplas dificuldades de emancipação”, sendo as suas maiores preocupações “a falta de oportunidades laborais”, a “precariedade”, os “baixos salários” e “o acesso a habitação” — uma realidade que se torna mais clara pelo facto de 63,1% dos inquiridos se sentir “dependente financeiramente da sua família”.

 

Estes constrangimentos têm múltiplas consequências, nomeadamente, a nível da participação política, mas também da capacidade de os jovens terem filhos. Não chegam a 7% os participantes do estudo que já têm filhos, embora 75,8% demonstrem essa intenção.

 

Quanto às expectativas para o futuro das gerações mais novas, os inquiridos sinalizam a contratação de jovens, a renovação das carreiras da função pública, a segurança e a aposta em iniciativas comunitárias e populares. Por outro lado, os jovens são críticos dos valores praticados no mercado habitacional, da justiça, do sistema de impostos ou do sistema de ensino.

 

E têm soluções para os problemas que os afectam: renovar os quadros, apoiar o empreendedorismo, criar quotas para a contratação de jovens ou acabar com os recibos verdes.

 

Especificamente na área da habitação, propõem regular o mercado com tectos máximos para as rendas, bolsas de apoio à habitação e ajudas do Estado para o pagamento da entrada na compra de casa.

 

No ensino, querem mais estágios nas licenciaturas (que defendem que "devem ser remunerados sem excepções"), acabar com as propinas e criar melhores condições de acesso às bolsas de estudo.

 

Na saúde, o foco está em aumentar a oferta de consultas de saúde mental e o número de psicólogos ou ainda "o reforço geral do SNS [Serviço Nacional de Saúde]".

 

Já sobre mobilidade, pedem mais transportes públicos no interior e passes sociais até aos 30 anos.

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