The Guardian view on snap elections in Greece Elections in Greece will raise the stakes over Europe’s austerity policies.

The Guardian view on snap elections in Greece

Elections in Greece will raise the stakes over Europe’s austerity policies

Editorial

The Guardian, Monday 29 December 2014 / http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/dec/29/guardian-view-on-snap-elections-greece

The election that the Greek prime minister, Antonis Samaras, has called after losing his gamble over the presidency on Monday represents the start of an even more uncertain era in Europe. The political forces set in motion by austerity policies designed to cope with the still unresolved economic crisis are coming to the fore everywhere, undermining established parties, changing the way countries are governed, and reshaping popular attitudes.

New parties, as well as older but previously marginal ones, have grown apace. Some are getting closer to power, or at least to a share in it. If Syriza, the Greek radical leftist party, wins the elections scheduled for 25 January – and its chances of doing so are deemed to be good – it will have achieved such power, even if it has to rule in coalition. It will perhaps go down as the first true anti-austerity, as well as unashamedly anti-capitalist, party to come to office in Europe after 2008 changed the rules of the game. It might well set a precedent for other new parties, notably Podemos in Spain, which has burst from nowhere to become a serious rival to the ruling People’s party and the opposition Socialists. The question a Syriza victory could raise is whether a specifically anti-austerity party in a small country can force a change in an economic strategy for the whole eurozone that has been largely crafted by Germany, and which that nation has until now shown little readiness to change.

Until now, the European austerity regime has been administered by mainstream parties, such as the Socialists in France, even though they have argued with Berlin and Brussels over the degree and extent of such policies. Greece is a small country which had been storing up, and hiding, its economic problems for years before the larger global crisis tipped it over the edge, or would have done had the European Union not intervened. Since then it has been on life support by way of repeated injections of European money, but it has also had the life drained out of its society by the policies it has been forced to implement. Every Greek government since has had to try to square this dismal circle.

The Samaras administration had been under intense pressure in recent negotiations over what support Europe would offer after the current bailout ends in February and what fresh cuts and economies it could give in return. Mr Samaras, uncertain whether he could sustain another austerity round if he left things as they were, chose the risky course of turning the choice of a new president into what was in effect a vote of confidence that would have strengthened his fragile two-party coalition, had he won it.

He lost it in part because Europe pushed too hard, and Europe must now face the consequences. It is still conceivable that he and his allies could win the election. But whatever government emerges, the immediate question will be, as before, what deal can be made between Greece and Europe on economic support. The context, however, will be different, first because Greece will by then be very close to completely running out of money, and second because, if it is Syriza, it will be demanding far softer terms, as well as pitching for early debt forgiveness.

Europe, which in essence means Germany, will then have to decide whether to continue to play the hard man or to give Greece room to manoeuvre. This is exactly what Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, does not need. The German view has been that the problems of the southern tier, while far from solved, had been contained and that it was now possible to concentrate on the structural and competitiveness issues faced by France and Italy, and indeed Germany itself. Now the Greek issue is back at the top of the agenda.

The new European commission, under Jean-Claude Juncker, who has already sought to buy more time for the French and Italians, is likely to try to blunt the sharp edges of German rigour and may even relish the opportunity presented by Greece to demonstrate independence of Berlin. Even if Syriza fails to gain a victory, it will almost certainly not fall very far short of one. For Brussels and Berlin, this will pose in a sharper form than before the question of how they can go on demanding the implementation of policies that have been passionately rejected by electorates in member countries.