Spanish elections: voters head to polls in most hotly contested election in recent history
Little
is certain about the outcome of Sunday’s election as four parties
vie for power against the backdrop of economic hardship
Ashifa Kassam in
Madrid
Sunday 20 December
2015 05.09 GMT
Spaniards head to
the polls on Sunday to cast their ballots in one of the most
unpredictable general elections in the country’s recent history.
The election is
expected to deliver the final blow to the two-party dominance that
has characterised the country’s politics since the return to
democracy. The conservative People’s party and the Socialists, both
of whom have alternated in power for decades, are expected to lose
seats to anti-austerity party Podemos and centre-right Ciudadanos.
With all four
parties regularly polling above 15%, little else about the outcome of
Sunday’s election is certain. As Spaniards emerge from a
debilitating economic crisis and grapple with issues such as
double-digit unemployment, cuts to public services and the ongoing
exodus of job-seekers from the country, much of the campaign has been
focused on the need for political and institutional transformation.
“I’m convinced
that Spaniards will ask for change,” Ciudadanos’ leader, Albert
Rivera, 36, told supporters in Madrid on Friday as the election
campaign drew to a close. “I’m convinced that these years of
weariness, of corruption ... are coming to an end.”
In Valencia,
Podemos’ Pablo Iglesias urged supporters to channel the hardship of
recent years into political change. “We’re ready to lead a new
transition in this country,” said the 37-year-old. “This is the
moment that all the difficulties and obstacles they’ve put in our
way start to make sense, because we’ve made it to the end of the
campaign with the possibility of winning.”
Both of the emerging
parties have sought to capitalise on the discontent of Spaniards with
the establishment parties, promising to increase transparency and
crack down on corruption. Despite their vast differences in political
ideology, both are promising constitutional reform, an overhaul of
the electoral system and an untangling of politics from the country’s
judiciary.
On Friday, as the
campaign came to a close, the Socialists asserted their position as
the traditional rival of the conservative People’s party (PP).
“There’s only one colour – the red of the Socialists – that
will bring political change to Spain,” leader Pedro Sánchez, 43,
told supporters in Madrid.
His party promises
to reform the constitution as a response to the push for independence
in Catalonia and says it will scrap controversial legislation passed
by the PP that imposed steep fines for protesters, expanded religious
studies in schools and made it easier for companies to fire workers.
In contrast to his
rivals’ message of change, Mariano Rajoy, the prime minister, has
urged Spaniards to cast their vote for continuity, warning that
change could risk derailing the tepid economic recovery. “Playing
around with experiments and novelties is something that a country
like this one ... cannot allow in any way,” Rajoy, 60, told
supporters in Valencia. “To take a step backwards now, to return to
the old, tired, boring policies ... would be an error that we can’t
allow as a nation.” His party is pledging to create 2m jobs in the
next four years.
Polls suggest Rajoy
and the PP will emerge as the most voted force in Sunday’s
election. The last poll by the country’s Centre for Sociological
Research (CIS), published two weeks ago, suggested the PP could win
as many as 128 seats on Sunday, but fail to hold on to the absolute
majority they won in the 2011 elections.
How the other three
parties will stack up remains to be seen. Polls have put all of them
in varying positions in recent weeks, with Ciudadanos and Podemos
often vying for third and fourth place and the Socialists in second.
Polls suggest one in three voters are still undecided ahead of
Sunday’s election.
In a campaign that
has pitted emerging parties versus traditional ones, support for
either side often mirrors the country’s urban and rural divide.
Ciudadanos and Podemos are more likely to gain support from younger,
urban voters while older, rural voters are more likely to cast their
vote for the PP or the Socialists.
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It’s a divide that
could yield a boost for Spain’s traditional parties, as the
country’s electoral system gives more weight to votes from rural
areas than urban ones. Spaniards who are 55 and older – a
demographic that has grown by more than a million since the 2011
election – are more likely to support the PP and are also more
likely to vote.
Sunday’s election
is expected to usher in a new era of coalitions and compromises at
the national level. Many analysts predict the PP will join forces
with Ciudadanos to govern, with Rajoy hinting earlier this week that
his party would be open to the possibility of an alliance to prevent
a coalition between leftist parties.
Rivera, the leader
of Ciudadanos, has said he will not join a government that he does
not lead, but said on Friday that his party would abstain from a vote
of confidence in order to allow the party with the most seats to
govern.
The Socialists have
said they are open to various possibilities, but have rejected the
idea of a coalition with the PP, while Podemos’ Iglesias has said
he is open to working with others in government, but noted it would
be hard for his party to find common ground with the PP.
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