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EDITORIAL
Certeza
e incógnitas dos votos espanhóis
DIRECÇÃO EDITORIAL
20/12/2015 - PÚBLICO
Ditado
o fim do bipartidarismo, resta saber que alianças emergirão das
eleições espanholas de hoje.
O sistema eleitoral
espanhol favorece o bipartidarismo mas este tem os dias contados. Não
porque o sistema eleitoral tenha mudado, mas porque os principais
partidos, os que até aqui têm rodado no poder, sofreram uma forte
erosão diante do eleitorado. Por isso, se em eleições anteriores
tudo se decidia entre o PP e o PSOE, ficando em vantagem ora um ora
outra, agora o pódio será disputado não por duas mas por quatro
partidos. Isto não significa, porém, que haja mudanças de monta.
Visto de uma forma simplista, é como se a alternância a dois agora
se jogasse a quatro, ficando apenas por saber que “fatia” dos
votos expressos terá cada uma das formações em disputa na primeira
linha. Ontem, em editorial, o diário El País dizia que, mais do que
partidos ou programas em disputa, foram os seus líderes que na
campanha desempenharam o papel principal, foram eles o “produto”
exposto, não os seus partidos. E isto terá reduzido a “oferta”
eleitoral a quatro pessoas: Rajoy (PP), Sánchez (PSOE), Iglesias
(Podemos) e Rivera (Cidadãos), alinhando as novas forças políticas
num jogo que não difere muito do das velhas, das quais deveriam
demarcar-se. Escreve ainda o El País que “os partidos tradicionais
trataram de não perder terreno, e os emergentes, sem herança a
defender, criaram uma dinâmica contra as opções de sempre, que não
foi acompanhada por verdadeiras demonstrações de uma nova
política.” Cautelas à esquerda e à direita, cabe agora ao
eleitorado espanhol projectar no voto tudo aquilo que o move, e que
vai da herança ainda morna dos revoltados de 2011, os que ocuparam
as ruas e ruidosamente exigiram mudanças, e o descrédito face ao
desempenho das forças tradicionais. Nas sondagens, este desencanto
expressa-se de forma clara. Nas legislativas anteriores, PP e PSOE
somavam entre 70 a 80% dos votos. Nestas, poderão não passar dos
50% Isto enquanto o Cidadãos e o Podemos já ultrapassam a barreira
dos 15%. Consoante os votos reais, expressos hoje, assim será o
futuro governo de Espanha, assentando mais depressa numa aliança
PP-Cidadãos do que PSOE-Podemos. Ou seja, tal como sucedeu em
Portugal nas recentes legislativas, a ausência de uma maioria
absoluta pode fazer deslocar o poder para uma aliança parlamentar
que não seja a mais óbvia. E se por aqui, contrariamente às
expectativas dos vencedores e à “norma” habitual, o governo
acabou por ser entregue ao PS com apoio parlamentar do PCP e do
Bloco, em Espanha os dois maiores partidos (PP e PSOE), se as
eleições confirmarem a sua tendência de queda, terão de
sujeitar-se a negociações com os emergentes (Cidadãos e Podemos).
Isto, por si só, não é garantia de uma nova política. Mas
corresponde verdadeiramente a um novo ciclo, mais imprevisível mas
também mais desafiador. Isto se a capacidade de fazer pactos e obter
consensos for levada a sério pelos partidos em disputa e se desses
acordos e negociações sair algo que corresponda aos anseios de
mudança do eleitorado. Dizem que durará pouco, mas a nova
legislatura espanhola pode ser uma agradável surpresa.
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Spain’s
election will be felt across the whole continent
OPINION
Owen Jones / Friday
18 December 2015 06.00 GMT
The
country’s political convulsions and the rise of Podemos show that
the fight against austerity did not die with Syriza in Greece
“Yes we can!” –
“¡Sí se puede!” – is the deafening chant that closes the
rallies. Except they feel less like political meetings and more like
rock concerts. On Sunday, millions of Spaniards will vote in their
country’s general election – not since the death of Franco has
Spain faced such a dramatic political transformation.
Podemos – Spanish
for “we can” – is a party less than two years old, but a
combination of discontent and optimism means the party and its allies
could win dozens of seats in the Spanish parliament, a political
ascent lacking precedent in postwar western Europe. A combination of
economic crisis, a brutal programme of cuts, and disillusionment with
a political elite widely regarded as corrupt and venal spurs on its
support. This election matters – not just for Spain, but for Europe
too.
Travelling across
Spain – and full disclosure, I’m here to support Podemos –
reveals a country with a huge level of political engagement. In A
Coruña, Galicia, hundreds of young people cram into a room, debating
violence against women, the democratisation of the economy, and
workers’ rights.
I meet the mayor,
Xulio Ferreiro, who was swept to power along with other
Podemos-backed candidates in many cities in May’s local elections.
Dressed in casual jeans, jumper and shirt, he is a far cry from the
opulence of the city hall. It is a reminder that protesters have
become rulers. In Asturias – where miners in 1934 revolted against
a rightwing government before the civil war – thousands of people
waving purple balloons chant “remontada”, or “comeback”,
referring to Podemos’s apparent upturn in the polls. In a
working-class district of Barcelona, supporters of Podemos’s allies
En Comú Podem cheer Ada Colau, their new crusading mayor, who came
to prominence as an anti-eviction champion.
Given what has
happened to Spain, it would perhaps be more surprising if this
political convulsion had not taken place. Unemployment peaked at a
quarter of the workforce in 2013, and remains above 20%. The crisis
was particularly ruinous for young people, nearly half of whom remain
out of work, a total only eclipsed in the European Union by
austerity-ravaged Greece. Many of those driven into the ranks of the
unemployment were stripped of benefits, leaving them destitute.
For many of those in
work, life is increasingly defined by precariousness and insecurity.
According to the Financial Times, only 7% of new work contracts
signed in July were for permanent jobs; before the crash, it was
closer to 12%. In June, over a quarter of new fixed-term employment
contracts lasted a week or less, up from just under 16% before the
crash. This is the lot of middle-class and working-class Spaniards
alike.
In 2014, nearly a
hundred families were thrown out of their homes every day. The
economic recovery has been accompanied by booming child poverty:
according to the EU, one in three Spanish children now risk poverty
or social exclusion. Services have been decimated too: Madrid cut
13.6% of spending on health between 2009 and 2013.
You might expect
PSOE – Spain’s equivalent of the Labour party – to be the
beneficiaries, but this technocratic outfit was in power when the
crisis hit and began the process of cutting. PSOE shows the same
signs of morbidity afflicting European social democracy: the
fragmentation of its traditional base, and its acceptance of market
economics and austerity at the expense of supporters.
Election speeches
here are peppered with references to the indignados, a huge movement
against the entire political elite which took to the streets in the
run-up to the 2011 election that evicted PSOE. The movements had two
major political outcomes: the creation of Podemos at the beginning of
2014, which went on to take five seats in the European parliament
just four months later; and sweeping gains for anti-austerity
movements in last May’s local elections, with so-called “mayors
of change” taking power in cities across the country. Podemos’s
rise was meteoric: months after its foundation, some polls put the
party in first place.
The first thing you
notice about a Podemos rally is a rejection of the style of the old
left: no red flags, no speeches peppered with socialism. As one
candidate for En Marea, an ally of Podemos in Galicia, put it to me,
she doesn’t answer the problems of farmers by whipping out a copy
of Das Kapital. The Podemos strategy appeared to be vindicated.
But the party
suffered a number of setbacks. When Syriza swept to power in Greece
at the beginning of 2015, Podemos’s leader, Pablo Iglesias, forged
a close alliance with Syriza’s Alexis Tsipras. EU leaders were
aware that any success for Syriza would boost similar movements
elsewhere, and in Spain most of all – which partly explains their
determination to impose a humiliating austerity agreement. The Greek
capitulation damaged Podemos.
Then there is the
backlash against the burgeoning Catalan independence movement. Like
David Cameron stirring anti-SNP hostility so successfully in
Britain’s general election, so the Spanish government has tapped
into anti-Catalan resentment, damaging the pro-referendum (though not
pro-independence) Podemos.
After years of
economic trauma, any sign of recovery undoubtedly benefits the
incumbent government. And Podemos’s role as the new, fresh
outsiders was robbed by the rise of Ciudadanos (Citizens), led by the
telegenic Albert Rivera, who first came to prominence when he
appeared naked in a campaign poster, cupping only his manhood.
Originating in
Catalonia as a vigorously anti-independence movement, the party
attracted derisory support in national opinion polls at the beginning
of the year. Although portrayed as centrist equivalents of Britain’s
Liberal Democrats, Ciudadanos blends free-market ideology and
libertarianism on drugs and sex work, while in Catalonia it proposed
banning the burqa. Some of its leading figures and candidates have
suggested limiting abortion rights and removing healthcare from
immigrants. Ciudadanos subsequently became the darlings of the
mainstream media and surged past Podemos, apparently consigning
Iglesias’s then-flagging party to fourth place.
Yet the election
campaign has transformed Podemos’s fortunes. The latest polls put
Podemos on 20%, four points ahead of Ciudadanos and just five points
behind the ruling party, an indication of how much Spanish politics
has fragmented. Though we must treat polls with scepticism, the old
party system is on course to be dealt a crippling blow, even if a
weakened Popular party clings on to power, possibly propped up by
Ciudadanos.
Even if Podemos only
wins, say, 13%, it would be a dramatic breakthrough for a party
founded only last year. Let’s not get swept away: Syriza was the
great hope of the left at the start of 2015. But Spain is not Greece,
and Podemos shows there’s life in the movement yet. Europe’s
rulers should take note.
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