Spain
edging towards Socialist-led coalition as negotiations begin
Marathon
political talks expected before government can be formed but leftwing
parties’ balance of power puts Mariano Rajoy’s future as PM in
doubt
A
Socialist-led coalition is shaping up to be the most likely to rule
Spain as rival politicians laid down ground rules on Monday ahead of
what are expected to be marathon political negotiations needed to
form the country’s next government.
Ashifa
Kassam in Madrid
Monday
21 December 2015 19.18 GMT
The conservative
People’s party (PP) won 123 seats in Sunday’s election and 29% of
the vote, leaving it a long way short of a majority in the 350-seat
legislature. As the results came in, the party leader, Mariano Rajoy,
vowed he would try to stay on as prime minister, despite a set of
results that left him with few options to do so. “I will try and
form a stable government,” Rajoy told cheering supporters on
Sunday. “Spain needs stability, security, confidence and trust.”
But with leftwing
parties holding the balance of power in Spain’s parliament, the
result is likely to mirror recent political events in Portugal, where
the conservatives won the October election but fell to a socialist
government backed by leftist parties just days later.
Billed as Spain’s
most vibrant and plural election in recent years, the vote chipped
away at the country’s decades of two-party dominance and yielded a
result that thrust the country into weeks – if not months – of
political horse trading.
In the coming days
and weeks, King Felipe VI, who took over from his embattled father
last year, will reach out to all parties to hear their positions and
name the party that will have the chance to try and form a
government. If the candidate fails to obtain an absolute majority,
followed by a simple majority in a vote of confidence, the king must
put forward a new candidate. If no government is formed within two
months, new elections must be held.
On Monday morning,
as many in Spain waded through the potential scenarios, the Socialist
party ruled out any possibility of backing the PP. “The Socialists
will vote no to Rajoy. We’re going to vote no to the PP,” said
César Luena, one of the party’s senior officials.
The Socialists came
second in Sunday’s election, earning 90 seats and 22% of the vote.
Despite a result that ranked as their worst ever, the party is now
central to the question of what comes next. “Spaniards voted for
change and the left and we’re going to translate that to the
confidence vote,” said Luena.
Anti-austerity party
Podemos, which won 69 seats and 21% of the vote, said it would also
block any attempt by Rajoy to form a government. “On no account
will Podemos allow the PP to govern,” the leader, Pablo Iglesias,
told reporters on Monday, ruling out the possibility of even
abstaining during the vote of confidence. “The PP cannot form part
of the future government of this country,” said Iglesias.
By contrast,
Ciudadanos’s leader, Albert Rivera, said his party would abstain
from the confidence vote to allow the PP to form a minority
government and urged the Socialists to do the same. “The Socialists
need to show that they’re thinking more about Spain than what’s
left of their party,” Rivera told Spanish media on Monday. “Spain
cannot allow itself to be Greece. Spain cannot allow itself to be a
chaotic country.”
In the lead-up to
the election, analysts predicted that Ciudadanos would be a key
player in propping up a PP minority. The centre-right party won only
40 seats on Sunday, however, not enough to shield the PP from the no
votes promised by the Socialists and Podemos. Rivera has consistently
said he will not enter any kind of pact with the PP.
As a result a
Socialist government backed by Podemos seems increasingly likely.
While both parties
will find common ground in the appeal for change, the pairing comes
with its perils; whereas the Socialists have pushed for
constitutional reform to address the issue of Catalan independence,
Iglesias said on Monday that a referendum on independence would be
crucial for any party to secure Podemos’s support. Both parties
will also have to weigh the risk of alienating their voter base, made
up of rural, older voters in the case of the Socialists, and for
Podemos, voters intent on doing away with the establishment parties.
As Podemos ran under
coalitions in several regions, any agreement with the Socialists
could potentially be complicated by the stamp of approval needed from
several other leftist movements, such as Barcelona en Comú or
Compromís in Valencia.
An alliance of the
Socialists and Podemos would likely still need the support of other
parties to advance their agenda, whether it be Ciudadanos or regional
parties, such as the Republican Left of Catalonia and Artur Mas’s
Democratic Convergence party. The necessity of more votes could
amplify the importance of the smattering of separatist parties in the
parliament and see the Socialists wrestled into concessions on
Catalan independence as the price of gaining support. The option of
Ciudadanos as a partner is complicated by Rivera’s strong stance in
backing Rajoy as leader of the next government.
If the Socialists
are able to gather enough support to form a government they could
find themselves at loggerheads with the country’s senate – which
emerged from Sunday’s election with a PP majority – as the party
tries to push forward initiatives such as constitutional reform.
On Monday, the PP
urged its rivals to take a step back and consider the bigger picture.
“I am asking everyone to show responsibility, because the stability
of Spain is at stake, progress in the economic recovery is at stake,”
PP official Fernando Martínez-Maillo told broadcaster Cadena Ser.
The messy affair has
shone new light on the role of King Felipe. While his father Juan
Carlos’s abdication sent tens of thousands of Spaniards into the
streets to demand a referendum on the future of the monarchy, polls
suggest Felipe’s approval levels have since risen. His growth in
popularity has been explained by his careful prudence, with speeches
that steer clear of the push for democratic and institutional
regeneration in Spain.
But Sunday’s
election result will likely force the king to wade into the crux of
the issue, with the monarch central to what comes next. With Felipe
set to deliver his televised Christmas eve speech on Thursday, many
will be watching carefully for clues on what the future of the
country’s government could look like.
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