sábado, 15 de julho de 2017

The Guardian view on Brexit policy: time for Britain to get real / Brexit followed by Corbyn in No 10 would put UK flat on its back – Tony Blair

The Guardian view on Brexit policy: time for Britain to get real

By the time MPs get back after the summer, there will only be a year left to sort the UK’s relationship with the EU. Here is an agenda that the country could agree on
  ‘Political debate about Brexit has struggled to move on from the 2016 referendum and has barely begun to adjust to the result of the 2017 election.’

Friday 14 July 2017 18.49 BST Last modified on Friday 14 July 2017 22.00 BST

Next week, parliament goes into recess for the summer. Save for a few days in September, MPs are not scheduled to be back at Westminster until 9 October. By then, six of the 24 months allotted for negotiating the UK’s exit from the European Union and Britain’s future relationship with the EU will have passed. In practice, there will only be a year remaining until all the big issues are supposed to be provisionally settled and the process of confirmation begins. As the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, keeps saying, the clock is ticking.

British politics and British society remain in denial about what is at stake, about the issues involved, and about the wasted time so far. Political debate about Brexit has struggled to move on from the 2016 referendum and has barely begun to adjust to the result of the 2017 election. Many in Britain continue to refight the referendum. Ministers remain divided, vague and in too many cases merely flippant. The public remains largely in the dark about the decisions that ministers are on the verge of having to take. That has to change. The country’s future is on the line. Millions of livelihoods are affected.

Summer holidays are not an ideal time to face realities, but the realities must be faced, and faced now – and be explained and debated. Before parliament returns in the autumn, Britain must try to clarify the future relationship it seeks, not just in terms of sovereignty, law and alliances, but in terms of the economy, jobs and standards of living too. An agenda is required on which progressive MPs of all parties might broadly agree.

The starting point for this process is to agree to seek as soft a Brexit as is practically possible. In essence, a soft Brexit puts the economy first. It requires government to commit to making a deal within the time available, not allowing the process to drive off a cliff, unfinished, at the end. That means making it clear that Britain embraces the inevitability of transitional arrangements.

Having accepted that practicality, the first item of business is to agree the terms of departure from the EU. The UK has already conceded that these issues must be dealt with first. Three main items have to be addressed here: EU and UK citizens’ rights in one another’s jurisdictions; the Irish border; and the financial bill payable by the UK. On rights, the aim must be maximal not minimal, and the UK must accept an arbitration system that does not exclude the European court of justice. On Ireland, the goal must be identical border practicalities to those that now exist. On the bill, Britain should pay what it owes to the EU as long as the transitional period continues. In practice that means paying over a longer period of time.

The next imperative is to secure the British economy and the prosperity of the public in the long term. That would be best done by remaining within both the single market and the customs union for the duration of the transitional period and, perhaps, beyond. That is not at odds with Brexit. The UK would still cease to be a member of the EU. This would put the UK at a disadvantage, because it will no longer be a single market rule-maker. That, though, is what the public voted for in 2016.

Remaining within the single market would, however, mean accepting freedom of movement broadly as it exists at present. Many assumptions are made about the public view on this issue. The country now has to decide its priorities and where it stands. Are economic security and social stability enhanced or weakened by accepting freedom of movement? Progressives should seek to win the argument for the former. Even if the decision is to leave the single market, however, the case for remaining in the customs union endures. To leave the customs union would be devastating to modern supply chains. Staying is vital to a positive outcome on the Irish border question. It would also protect the UK against unfavourable trade deals with countries like the US that could undermine UK food and farming regulations.

If Britain is to remain inside the single market and the customs union, while leaving the EU, it must also soften its current resistance to the jurisdiction of the European court of justice. The ECJ is no more a threat to sovereignty than is any other international arbitration system or court to which the UK adheres. Only fanatics obsess about the ECJ. There is no reason for it to be a deal breaker. A more open UK approach to arbitration solutions and the ECJ would also make it easier for the UK to remain within or attached to some of the devolved regulatory agencies that the same fanatics insist on leaving. These include Euratom and the European medicines and environment agencies.

Would we start from where we are now if we could avoid it? Absolutely not. The Guardian opposed UK withdrawal from the EU. Brexit is still the wrong course for this country. But the decision to leave was taken, so it must be honoured, but honoured in a manner which does least harm to the nation and its interests, in particular to those who stand to suffer most from it. This means prioritising the economically vulnerable, whether they are UK or EU citizens. But it also means being constructive about the concerns of the devolved parts of the UK that voted remain, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Unless and until the national mood clearly changes, which it may and which we hope in time that it will, Brexit is a reality. There is no groundswell for a second vote on the issue at the moment. But nor is there a groundswell for paying a high economic price for Brexit. The imperatives are to take the strategic view and to do least damage to the things that matter most. The leave vote was a vote to withdraw from the EU, but it was not a vote to become a poorer, less secure or less law-abiding nation. It was not a vote to build walls against the world, or to turn our back on Europe, of which the geography and culture ensure we shall always be part.

Brexit followed by Corbyn in No 10 would put UK flat on its back – Tony Blair

Former Labour prime minister issues warning in lengthy article published by his own political institute

Peter Walker Political correspondent
Saturday 15 July 2017 07.01 BST

Tony Blair has warned that the combination of Brexit followed by a Jeremy Corbyn government would soon leave Britain “flat on our back”, arguing that a deeply divided country needs a fundamental rethink of its political ideas.

In another demonstration of his partial return to domestic politics, the former prime minister praised Corbyn’s performance in the general election, but argued that greater scrutiny of the Labour leader’s policies could derail the next campaign. In a lengthy article released by his own political institute, the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, Blair said an “unchanged Corbyn programme” introduced at the same time as Brexit would prove disastrous for the country.

“If a rightwing populist punch in the form of Brexit was followed by a leftwing populist punch in the form of unreconstructed hard-left economics, Britain would hit the canvas, flat on our back and be out for a long count,” he wrote.

Blair warned the party he led for 13 years that, however unexpectedly good the party’s showing in the 8 June election, it could not automatically expect victory soon. “The Labour party should be cautious in thinking ‘one more heave’ will deliver victory next time,” Blair said. “The Corbyn campaign was a positive factor in the election result; but the determining factor was the Tory campaign.

“The Corbyn enthusiasm, especially amongst the young, is real, but I would hesitate before saying that all those who voted Labour voted to make him prime minister, or that they supported the body of the programme rather than its tone. I think they thought that the likelihood was that the Tories would be the government, but were determined to neuter the mandate.”

In the next election, Labour’s economic policies “will come under vastly greater scrutiny”, Blair warned. However, he conceded he “did not foresee” the Labour gains made in the election, and hailed Corbyn’s role in this.

“I pay tribute to Jeremy Corbyn’s temperament in the campaign, to the campaign’s mobilisation of younger voters, and to the enthusiasm it generated,” he said. “His supporters shouldn’t exaggerate it; but his critics, including me, shouldn’t understate it. He tapped into something real and powerful, as Bernie Sanders has in the USA and left groups have done all over Europe.”

Much of the article concerned Blair’s continued opposition to Brexit, which he has previously called on remain-minded voters to seek to overturn.

Along with the comments, Blair’s institute has released polling conducted on its behalf which shows, among other findings, that the majority of Britons are split on whether they would like a so-called soft or hard Brexit. “The British people’s attitude to Europe is ambivalent,” Blair said. “They do think Brexit means Brexit and, for now, there is no groundswell for a second referendum.

“But they want a strong relationship with Europe. A majority oppose hard Brexit. The opposition to free movement of people, once you break it down, is much more nuanced.”

Overall, he concludes, the UK “is deeply divided – between young and old, metropolitan and outside the cities, better off and worse off”.

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