Germany's Conservative Meltdown
The Approaching End to Merkel's
Tenure
With the chancellor
under heavy fire from Bavarian conservatives, Germany's political landscape may
be facing radical upheaval. Angela Merkel might lose her job and the country's
traditional center-right partnership could soon end. By DER SPIEGEL Staff
June 22, 2018 06:56
PM
"At some point, I would like to find the right time to
leave politics," Angela Merkel said. "That's a lot more difficult
than I had imagined. But I don't want to be a half-dead wreck when I leave
politics."
The comments came in response to a question about her life
goals outside of politics way back in 1999. Merkel had just become
secretary-general of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and sat down for an
interview with the photographer Herlinde Koelbl for her book "Spuren der
Macht" (Traces of Power).
That was also the year in which Merkel's rise within the CDU
began, along with the almost revolutionary restructuring of the party. In
subsequent years, Merkel jettisoned so many traditional CDU positions that it
is more accurate to speak of a re-founding of the party than a process of
modernization. Many conservatives have since been unable to recognize their old
party. And all the while, discomfort with Merkel's leadership continued to
grow, year after year, within the Christian Social Union (CSU), the CDU's
Bavarian sister party.
Since fall 2015, when almost a million people arrived in
Germany as a result of Merkel's liberal refugee policies, this discomfort has
mutated into open rejection. And now, in June 2018, the CSU has had enough,
even if there isn't currently an obvious trigger for their vexation aside from
approaching Bavarian state elections scheduled for mid-October. They would like
to see the immediate end of the Merkel era -- there is really no other way to
interpret comments made recently by CSU party leadership. And to achieve that
goal, they are prepared to sacrifice the decades-long partnership between the
two conservative parties.
"Merkel's political approach has reached the end of its
tether," says a CSU parliamentarian. Discussions about Merkel within the
CSU are characterized by rage and malice. And CSU leader Horst Seehofer is
threatening to defy Merkel's constitutionally guaranteed power to determine
policy guidelines.
Formally, the chaos we are seeing in the German political
landscape these days stems from just one of the 63 items on Seehofer's
so-called "masterplan" for reforming refugee policy: his call for
people to be turned back from the German border if they have already applied
for asylum or been registered as a refugee in another European Union member
state. For quite some time, the CSU itself seemed unsure as to exactly who it
wanted to turn away at the border, but the main thing was to take a tough line.
The Fall of Merkel?
Merkel, meanwhile, views such a policy as the kind of
unilateral German move that she would like to avoid. She insists that there
must be a "European solution," by which she means a reform of EU
migration policy negotiated with all of Germany's European Union partners.
In truth, though, it's not about that one item on Seehofer's
list. The CSU would like to put an end to the refugee policy that is closely
linked with Merkel's name. If Seehofer and his party fulfill their promise to
soon begin turning people back from the border -- on which no senior CSU
politician leaves any doubt -- then Merkel would only be left with two options:
that of abandoning her own convictions or of consummating the break between the
CDU and CSU.
Ironically, it is Merkel's own sister party has triggered
the most significant political crisis in her almost 13-year tenure as
chancellor. It remains unclear how it will end, but chatter about the
chancellor's potentially imminent demise has now become a constant at every
water cooler in Berlin.
In hindsight, it seems as though the conflict we are now
seeing between the CDU and CSU is but the logical final act of a link that has
always been slightly neurotic, but which transformed into open distrust and
even hate since the fall of 2015. The steady stream of "compromises"
on refugee policy could only briefly conceal just how bad the atmosphere had
become in this partnership. These sister parties haven't been friends for quite
some time.
According to a survey commissioned by DER SPIEGEL, the
majority of German citizens believe that the CDU and the CSU should split and
go their separate ways. And if that were in fact to happen, and there are
plenty of indications it might, it wouldn't just be the end of Merkel's tenure.
It would also herald the end of a party system that has shaped Germany for the
last 70 years and provided a fair degree of stability, particularly when
compared to Germany's neighbors. And it would mark the beginning of a
government crisis: It seems unrealistic to expect that the CDU and SPD would
stay in power as a minority government or that they would bring the Greens on
board to replace the CSU. At SPD headquarters in Berlin, preparations are
already being made for new elections this fall.
Merkel still has a week to avoid the break. She hopes to be
able to come up with her "European solution" to the refugee problem
by July 1, the CSU having opted to give her a brief respite even though there
are some in the party who argued against doing so.
The way the chancellor is being pushed around by her sister
party these days has degenerated into an embarrassing political spectacle.
Still, the chancellor has chosen to confront the challenge and is fighting hard
to retain her hold on power. Or at least her hold on her office.
Much More at Stake
But it is difficult to imagine how Merkel and the CSU
leadership will be able to yet again arrive at one of those compromises that
have repeatedly been exposed as nothing but a chimera over the years. The
mutual mistrust in the two camps is simply too great. What is currently taking
place in Bavaria and Berlin is unprecedented in the history of the partnership
between the two parties. To be sure, there has been significant turbulence in
the past, most famously in 1976 when the alliance almost broke apart for good.
But the conflict today is deeper and more bitter. And far more is at stake.
On Monday, the Shakespearean drama currently being staged by
the two conservative parties was on full display. Following a crisis meeting
between the two party leadership committees, Merkel and Seehofer held press
conferences at exactly the same time to issue their latest threats against each
other. Political partners generally try to avoid concurrent press events.
Adversaries, however, do not.
The result was that Seehofer in Munich had to be told by a
journalist what Merkel had just said minutes before in Berlin. Namely that the
question of turning back refugees at the border touched on her constitutional
privilege to determine government policy. The journalist then asked what
Seehofer, as German interior minister, had to say about that.
Seehofer stopped short. "She didn't wave around her
policy guideline competence when talking to me. That would be rather unusual between
two party chairs," he finally said.
It wasn't the only unusual incident of the past few days.
Both Merkel and Seehofer called meetings of their party leadership committees
to ensure they had the necessary support in the conflict between the sister
parties.
Even before the CSU meeting, of course, there had been
little doubt that the party would back Seehofer. After he had sketched out the
basics of his "masterplan" to party leaders -- a plan that nobody had
seen aside from him and the chancellor -- Bavarian Governor Markus Söder, who
has mounted a significant challenge within the CSU to Seehofer's leadership,
made it clear that the CSU was determined to implement every single point of
the plan. "There is no going back. That's what people are expecting from
us," he said. At the conclusion of the meeting, former party head and
honorary chairman Edmund Stoiber held another of his famously spirited
addresses. He reminded his audience of the rise of the right-wing extremist
Republikaner party in the 1980s, which, Stoiber said, was only effectively stopped
by introducing significant changes to the country's asylum laws. The refugee
crisis doesn't just represent a danger to the CDU-CSU partnership, he said, but
also to social cohesion. The CDU and "that Ms. Karrenbauer," Stoiber
said, referring to CDU Secretary-General Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, just don't
get it. The leadership committee cheered and rollicked as if they were in a
beer tent.
The Party's DNA
At the exact same time, the CDU was meeting in Berlin -- a
bit more subdued, but no less determined. The CDU can't simply accept
everything the CSU throws at them, warned Merkel's deputy Thomas Strobl. It's
about "the party's DNA," said Armin Laschet, the governor of the
state of North Rhine-Westphalia. "You can't treat the CDU this way,"
called out Otto Wulff, head of the wing of the CDU representing voters over 60.
Merkel has managed to present the conflict to the CDU as a
frontal attack on her person, a characterization essentially consistent with
how it is seen in the CSU as well. Doing so has guaranteed her the strong
backing of her party, even if there are plenty who disagree with her on refugee
policy.
Following the press conferences, it was definitively clear
that all attempts to defuse the conflict had failed. On the Thursday before
last, ahead of separate meetings of the CDU and CSU caucuses, floor leader
Volker Kauder of the CDU and senior CSU parliamentarian Alexander Dobrindt had
met to evaluate the damage that had already been done. Dobrindt insisted that
he didn't want to endanger the party alliance. "But that's what you are
doing," countered Kauder. An additional meeting the next day also produced
no results.
Merkel and Seehofer also spoke on the phone and assured each
other that neither would overrule the other. "Are you going to invoke
policy guideline competence?" Seehofer asked when the conversation once
again turned to the issue of turning back migrants at the border. "No,
no," Merkel assured him. Only to do just that a few days later.
An additional attempt at conciliation likewise bore no
fruit. Bundestag President Wolfgang Schäuble, eminence grise of the CDU,
requested a meeting with Seehofer, which took place in Schäuble's office in
German parliament last Friday. Schäuble insisted to Seehofer that the CDU and
CSU had to stay together, a position that Seehofer agreed with before then
repeating his own position. Contrary to some within the CDU, the CSU leader
didn't get the impression that Schäuble was interested in replacing Merkel and
becoming chancellor himself.
On Saturday, a rumor began making the rounds among Merkel's
confidantes in the Chancellery that CDU parliamentarian Christian von Stetten
of Baden-Württemberg was assembling a group of CDU lawmakers who were critical
of Merkel's leadership in preparation for her downfall. Stetten indignantly
denied the claims, but the incident shows that Merkel's team has become so
rattled that they believe anything is possible.
Yet Another Compromise?
On Sunday evening, Merkel invited CDU leaders to party
headquarters in Berlin. The group watched the World Cup match between Germany
and Mexico together before discussing how to approach the party leadership
committee meeting scheduled for the next day in order to secure necessary
support for Merkel. Her plan to take two weeks before returning to the
leadership committee for consultations was unanimously supported. Seehofer had
already indicated to Merkel that the CSU would also give her two weeks.
By Tuesday, though, Merkel had realized that the gesture was
not the prelude to yet another compromise. At midday that day, she met with
French President Emmanuel Macron just outside of Berlin. The Chancellery and
the Élysée Palace had long been arguing about eurozone reform, but on this
sunny June day, the differences suddenly vanished. Macron received the eurozone
budget he had been demanding for so long and Merkel received Macron's assurance
that France would help Germany on the refugee question.
Macron had hardly left before the chancellor received a text
message from Seehofer. "In the name of the CSU, I am requesting a
coalition meeting to be held next week," he wrote. Seehofer was offended
that he hadn't been informed of the deal with Macron in advance while Olaf
Scholz of the SPD, as the senior cabinet representative of the conservatives'
junior coalition partner, had been. Merkel tried to calm Seehofer down.
Everything had already been discussed with the CSU, she wrote back. Only the
SPD were still a potential problem. "I talked to Scholz because the SPD
wanted a lot more than we did."
But Seehofer wasn't having it. Just a couple hours after his
text message to Merkel, the mass-circulation tabloid Bild published an article
that made it sound as though the CSU was seeking to torpedo Merkel's deal.
Both in Seehofer's Interior Ministry and in Merkel's
Chancellery, preparations are being made for the coming battle, the endgame
between the sister parties. Seehofer is preparing to hold a joint press
conference in the coming days with the heads of the Federal Criminal Police
Office, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution (Germany's domestic
intelligence agency) and the federal police force. All three, he says, support
his position.
In the Chancellery, meanwhile, they are preparing for zero
hour. Who says, the chancellor's team wonders, that Merkel has to wait until
Interior Minister Seehofer orders that asylum-seekers be turned away at
Germany's border. She could simply preempt him by ordering that the borders
remain open. Article 65 of the German constitution, after all, is quite clear:
"The Federal Chancellor shall determine and be responsible for the general
guidelines of policy."
Singing the Requiem
That could be true, Seehofer responds when asked about
Article 65. But he alone is authorized to issued orders to the federal police.
Plus, if it came to that, he would justify his order with the need to ensure
security and order in the country. "It would be a world premier if the
chancellor were to order her interior minister not to do so."
And if she does? "If the chancellor doesn't agree with
my policies, then she should bring the coalition to an end," Seehofer
says. He insists he isn't looking to topple Merkel, but the credibility of the
CSU is at stake. "If we cave in now, we can start singing the
requiem."
Inside the Chancellery as in the Interior Ministry, legal
opinions are currently being prepared on the question as to who is authorized
to issue orders to the federal police should it come to that. That's how far
things have already gone. It is clear to both protagonists: If Seehofer defies
the will of the chancellor, she will have to fire him. And he would accept
that, because there is one thing he fears more than the end of the governing
coalition: the accusation that the CSU is kowtowing to the chancellor. "We
can't sacrifice our credibility," he says.
Seehofer is hard on himself for not having been insistent
enough in the past and failing to force Merkel to change course. Now, voters in
Bavaria, he fears, no longer trust the CSU to assert itself in Berlin.
Part 2: A Nationwide CSU and the CDU in
Bavaria
June 22, 2018 06:56
PM
But it's not just about the voters. It is also about old
wounds. When listening to the two, it is impossible not to think of a failed
marriage in which each keeps a long list of the transgressions of the other --
though Seehofer seems much more aggrieved than Merkel. He remembers that a
former CDU secretary-general under Merkel's leadership accused him of no longer
being fit for a leadership position. He remembers Merkel admonishing him in a
speech by saying that Islam does in fact belong to Germany.
And then there is the article written by Ferda Ataman that
Seehofer carries around with him in his folder. In the piece, Ataman indirectly
accuses the minister of pursuing the politics of "blood and soil," a
reference to the racism of the Nazis. Seehofer found it offensive that Merkel
not only invited the journalist to a recent integration summit at the
Chancellery, but also sat next to her at the press conference that followed.
The chancellor, meanwhile, appears determined to fight the
battle of her life. She knows that she stands to lose everything. But more than
the end of her tenure as chancellor, she is worried about creating the
impression that she has become a puppet controlled by the CSU.
Lighting Everything on Fire
Merkel and her team have the feeling that they cannot back
down, that she would find herself in a death spiral of concessions if she were
to allow the CSU to begin turning people back at the border. What would happen
if the move didn't reverse the conservatives' falling poll numbers? Would the
basic right to asylum be the next to go? Or would Germany's commitment to
Europe be jettisoned?
Merkel is currently flying around the world at a breakneck
pace: Washington, Sochi, Porto, Beijing, Shenzhen, Québec, Amman and Beirut,
all interspersed with trips to Brussels. Along the way, she seems to have lost
sight of the degree of panic that has become rooted in the CSU, which faces an
important state election in October and, with poll numbers hovering around 40
percent, is concerned about losing its absolute majority in the Bavarian
parliament.
It was only during her trip to Canada for the G-7 that the
Chancellor got around to reading Seehofer's "masterplan," which
includes the sentence that could ultimately prove to be the undoing of the
CDU-CSU alliance. "In the future, I intend to turn away asylum-seekers at
the border if they are clearly the responsibility of another member
state."
When she read it, she thought she would be able to convince
him to amend or eliminate it, but he opted for stubbornness. Now, the question
as to whether refugees can be turned away at three border crossings in Bavaria
will determine the fate of Merkel's governing coalition. Merkel thinks that's
crazy. And Seehofer agrees. The chancellor, he said in an interview with the
regional newspaper Passauer Neue Presse, is "turning Mickey Mouse into a
monster." Neither Merkel nor Seehofer saw a conflict of this intensity
approaching. But now that it is here, he is lighting everything on fire.
For Merkel, there are few places these days where she can
escape the CSU. On Thursday, Merkel was visiting the German-Jordanian
University in Amman, which is one of those rare places. The students, including
Syrian refugees, expressed their gratitude for the humanity shown by the
chancellor despite all the resistance against her. A young woman wearing a
headscarf stood up and said, "It's my dream to be like you."
'An Open Country'
Merkel accepted all the homages without expressing any
emotion, but here, too, she made it clear that she still holds the deep
conviction that she did the right thing. When a young woman asked why the
right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) has grown so strong in
Germany, Merkel replied that the sheer number of refugees naturally triggered a
debate in Germany, and that there are differing views on how the situation
should be addressed. "I am on the side of those who say we want to be an
open country," she then added.
The contrast to her Bavarian friends couldn't be any
sharper. And yet Merkel is still doing a lot to appease them. Merkel has
promised that she will seek a "European solution" during the two
weeks' time she has now bought for herself. Which sounds reasonable. But why
the calls for a European solution now? Why wasn't one sought in the weeks,
months and years that have passed since the peak of the refugee crisis? Merkel
has been silent about why she is only now hastily and hectically shuffling her
schedule around in her effort to make this happen. It is at the very least
striking that it is only since Seehofer's threat that Merkel has suddenly
become so enthusiastic about shaping a European response.
But merely the preparations for this Sunday's mini-summit in
Brussels have demonstrated to the chancellor the extent to which her authority
has already shrunk on the European level. Merkel had hoped to host the meeting,
to which countries like Italy, Greece, Spain and Austria have been invited, in
Berlin. But some of the invitees let it be known that they would be unwilling
to travel to the German capital. Many still regard the way Merkel so vehemently
championed a policy of open borders in the beginning as the main culprit for
the refugee chaos that many European countries have been dealing with since the
autumn of 2015. So, it's not as if many of these European leaders are simply
going to hop on a plane to save the chancellor and ensure she can remain in
office.
As a last resort, European Commission President Jean-Claude
Juncker jumped in and offered to host Merkel's summit in Brussels. Preparations
for the summit, though, veered toward disaster on Thursday, though, when the
final declaration emerged. Hungarian President Victor Orbán railed that his and
the other Visegrád countries of Eastern Europe aren't interested in common
approaches or the redistribution of refugees -- all they want is greater
protection of the EU's external borders.
The response from Rome was of even greater significance.
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and Merkel telephoned during her visit to Jordan
on Thursday, after which he posted on Facebook that the "Cancelliera"
had agreed to shelve the draft. Merkel's people would not confirm whether this
is true, but the chancellor now faces an unpleasant decision. If she stands
firm on the content of the declaration, which is very accommodating to the
Germans, the Italians will not be on board. And without Rome's support, the
summit will have been useless. And even if Merkel can persuade the Italians on
Sunday to take part in the meeting of EU leaders, it's likely she can forget
any concrete goals for returning refugees to the point where they entered the
EU.
Unprecedented Dilemma
It's a difficult predicament. If the chancellor is unable to
find any agreement in the run-up to the meeting, then how does she intend to
reach one at the summit?
It is, of course, clear to the other EU leaders that
Merkel's sudden activity has less to do with the refugees than it does with
saving her chancellorship. Particularly given that current refugee numbers
don't suggest any need for hasty action. By mid-June, around 40,000 people had
entered the EU, about half as many as the previous year, according to the
International Organization for Migration in Berlin. In 2016, there had been
more than 215,000 in the same period.
At the moment, most EU partners appear to be gauging the
price the chancellor will be willing to pay for any concessions. Macron already
demonstrated this during his visit with Merkel at Meseberg. He effortlessly
obtained Merkel's approval for his eurozone budget, but also offered her the
readmission of refugees in exchange. Merkel is more vulnerable to extortion
right now than at any other point in her history as Germany's leader.
Markus Ferber, a member of the European Parliament with the
CSU, has warned the chancellor against trying to shoehorn any other issues that
do not relate directly to the refugee crisis into such deals. "Debt relief
for Greece, deposit guarantees for banks for Italy -- the chancellor cannot
throw the Christian Democrats' core issues overboard just to reach a deal in
the refugee crisis," he says.
Indeed, the verbiage upon which Merkel's fate now hinges is
very Teutonic. It's included in the resolution passed by the CSU executive
committee on Monday: "of suitable impact." Under that wording,
whatever Merkel negotiates at the European level would also have to have an
effect on the influx of refugees analogous to Seehofer's plan to turn people
away at the border. Ultimately, it's the CSU that will serve as the judge and
jury of Merkel's efforts. CSU Secretary-General Markus Blume has already been
very open about the fact that the party's aim is not that of finding the best
possible solution. "The point is to send a message to the people," he
says.
A visit to the small town of Marktredwitz in the Franconia
region of northeast Bavaria can provide a better understanding of the plight
currently facing the CSU. In the national election here in September, the CSU
fared terribly, with the party even falling to second place behind the AfD.
Some 26 percent of voters cast their ballots for the AfD, with only 22 percent
voting for the CSU.
Questioning Merkel
Markus Söder made a campaign appearance in the town on
Tuesday, and Martin Schöffel, a member of the state parliament warmed up the
crowd. Certain individuals in Germany have suspended the law, he said, and by
that, he was clearly referring to the chancellor. "You have to ask
yourself whether this woman is still on the right track," Schöffel added,
so loudly that the shriek of feedback filled the air.
It's exactly the tone Söder is fond of striking. The
Bavarian governor is the driving force behind the confrontation course with
Merkel. He refers to the phenomenon of refugees heading for Germany as a
"kind of tourism." He also has a message for the chancellor:
"The European solution cannot consist of Germany bearing the main burden
in the end," he says. Söder has concluded that there are only two
possibilities: Merkel must either submit to the CSU's demands or she must go.
Otherwise, the CSU will stand no chance of continuing to govern on its own in
the state of Bavaria. It will have no other alternative but to enter into a
coalition government. Poll numbers seem to indicate that he is right. Although
his personal popularity remains high in Bavaria, current polls show his party
falling considerably short of a majority in the next election, while the AfD is
holding steady at 13 percent.
Given how widespread his view of the situation is within the
CSU, Söder has been systematic in his efforts to seek confrontation with
Merkel's CDU. When it comes to rejecting refugees, Söder has a majority of
voters behind him, according to a survey commissioned by DER SPIEGEL. Sixty-one
percent of those questioned said they support the CSU's plan. A solid 58
percent, however, are also of the opinion that Angela Merkel should remain
chancellor.
With his unending stream of demands, Söder is now even
outdoing CSU party boss Seehofer, who had been Merkel's greatest detractor
within the party thus far. In May, for example, Söder became the first CSU
politician to publicly raise the question of turning refugees away at the
border. Last week, he told his party's parliamentary group in the Bundestag
that no false compromises could be made on the issue. Seehofer himself doesn't
have the power to object, even if he wanted to. While he may be interior
minister and still the leader of the CSU, he has been fighting for his
political survival since the September election. Given that Seehofer doesn't
hold a seat in parliament, it would be the end of his political career if
Merkel were to dismiss him as minister.
Alexander Dobrindt, who heads the CSU's group in the
Bundestag, is also backing Söder's hardline approach. Back when Seehofer was
still considering having the rejection of refugees first kick in once the upper
ceiling of 200,000 asylum-seekers had been reached, Dobrindt was already one
step ahead. At the beginning of June, he declared that all refugees who had
already been registered in another country must be turned back at the border.
He claimed this was part of Seehofer's masterplan, even though that wasn't yet
true at that point in time.
As recently as last week, the plan had still been to only
reject those who had already filed an application for asylum in another
country. That's also how Seehofer had presented it to the national group. But
that was too soft for Dobrindt's and Söder's taste. On Monday, Seehofer fell
into line with his fellow CSU executive committee members.
The decision on whether to break from the government or to
continue may be taken as early as July 1. The CDU executive committee is set is
to meet at 5 p.m. at party headquarters in Berlin that day, with the national
board then convening at 7 p.m. Merkel will then present details of whatever
agreement she has reached with the other European partners. The CSU also
intends to convene its top committee on the same day.
Few close to Merkel believe she will be able to fulfill the
ideal scenario of meeting all the CSU's demands. The hope is that she can at
least reach some agreements that will satisfy the Bavarians that progress is
being made. She would then be able to credibly state that bilateral agreements
with Italy and other countries would be possible within a few weeks' time.
But it's questionable whether this will appease the CSU. The
party has dug itself in to such a degree that yielding in any way would appear
as defeat -- and further diminish its prospects for the upcoming state election
in Bavaria. Söder is not in a position to accept any compromise that might make
the CSU appear to be the loser.
The End of Power-Sharing?
In that event, the CSU executive would provide Seehofer with
a mandate to issue orders as interior minister for turning refugees back at the
border. As she has already indicated, Merkel would in turn forbid him from
doing so. If the interior minister were to refuse to comply, and it is expected
that he would not, the chancellor would have to submit a request for his
termination with the German president. It's also probable that the other CSU
ministers in Merkel's cabinet would all resign. That would mark the end of a
power-sharing deal in the federal parliament between the CDU and CSU that has
spanned almost 70 years.
How things would proceed after that is an open question.
Merkel's backers are already considering the possible scenarios that would make
it possible for the chancellor to remain in office.
One envisions portraying the conflict between the CDU and
CSU as a struggle between a cosmopolitan, pro-Europe wing of the conservatives in
opposition to a wing oriented toward nationalists like Hungary's Viktor Orbán
and Italy's Matteo Salvini. From Merkel's perspective, this would have the
advantage that it would provide her with plausible reasons to stay in power
even if she returns from the Brussels summit without any deal.
The first Merkel supporters are already going public with
statements of support to bolster her. "This dispute is not about
details," says Schleswig-Holstein Governor Daniel Günther. "This is
about the CDU's decades-long, fundamental orientation as a pro-European party,
one which we cannot wantonly abandon."
CDU deputy chair Ursula von der Leyen echoes that sentiment,
saying, "I am very concerned about this development." She also warns
against further escalation. "We can't allow ourselves to overreach and
replace the common European idea with a national club of egoists." Even if
the CSU is right that we need considerable improvements on the issue of illegal
migration, "the swan song to orderly multilateralism strikes right at the
heart of the CDU," says von der Leyen. She argues that no major problem in
the future can be solved at the national level.
The consideration right now, according to sources close to
Merkel, is for a party conference to be held after a possible break between the
CDU and CSU at which Merkel could promote her political course. If the majority
in her party backed her, she would seek to continue governing together with the
current coalition partner, the SPD, and try to add the Greens to the mix.
"Anyone who believes that Germany is strong enough on its own to assert
our values and maintain our prosperity is wrong," says Daniel Günther. His
hope is that the CDU will "adopt a clear stance in order to also lead the
CSU back to this course."
Another outcome of a split, though, would be that the CSU
could become a national party -- and the CDU would likewise become a presence
in Bavaria. Party strategists are nervously eyeing a survey by pollster Insa,
which shows a national CSU party could end up with 18 percent in a federal
election in the event it ends its alliance with the CDU. Insiders say the party
would have no problem raising money, either, given that there are wealthy
conservative fans of the CSU across the country. They point, for example, to
the Hinneberg brothers in Hamburg, billionaire shipping magnates who have good
contacts with Donald Trump. By becoming a national party, however, the CSU
would risk losing its position as Bavaria's main political party. Nationally,
it would have to position itself as the party filling the right end of the
political spectrum and it would gradually lose its Bavarian identity.
'The CDU Will Also Run in Bavaria'
Meanwhile, if the CDU were to move quickly after a possible
break with the CSU, it could field candidates in Bavarian state elections this
fall. Volker Bouffier, the deputy head of the CDU and governor of the state of
Hesse, was the first to go public with that threat. "If the CSU wages a
national campaign, then the CDU will also run in Bavaria," he says. Former
CDU secretary-general Ruprecht Polenz also recommended to party supporters on
Facebook that the party should field candidates in the Bavarian election if the
CSU abandons its alliance. Meanwhile, Christian Bäumler, vice-chair of the
labor wing of the CDU, argued in an editorial with the business daily
Handelsblatt that the party should already be making preparations to establish a
new state chapter in order to participate in the Bavarian election. "That
might also show the CSU that elections in Bavaria are also won at the center of
society and not on the right-wing fringe." There is no scenario that the
CSU fears more.
This wouldn't be the first time the CDU considered planting
its flag in Bavaria. Back in 1976, another time when the CSU was threatening to
end the partnership, the CDU made concrete preparations to create a state
chapter. Kurt Biedenkopf, the CDU's secretary-general at the time, even
assigned regions to the youth wing of its party for the establishment of local
chapters in the state and even took the step of reserving restaurants and pubs
for related events.
Michael Kosmala is one person who is prepared to be at the forefront
of establishing the CDU in Bavaria. The 59-year-old management expert from
Amberg, who has worked for years for the Seidl Foundation, a CSU-aligned think
tank, attempted once before to establish a Bavarian CDU back 2016, which he
dubbed the "CDSU." "Merkel's refugee policy was a great
humanitarian gesture," says Kosmala, "and Seehofer is now destroying
everything." Kosmala explains that he tried to warn Merkel about Seehofer
in 2015 and offered his support for a Bavarian chapter of the CDU. But when he
got started, he promptly received a legal letter from CDU Secretary-General
Peter Tauber forbidding him from using the letters C, D and U for his project.
"Now, Merkel is being slaughtered by the man she was trying to protect at
the time," Kosmala says of Seehofer. But if a chasm does now develop
between the CSU and the CDU, Kosmala says he's ready to jump in to help set the
party set up shop in Bavaria. He wouldn't be alone either.
No Golden Days Left for Merkel
Even her closest confidants have no idea what Merkel will
really do if it does come to a breach. It's possible she would resign herself
after dismissing Seehofer, a move that would likely result in a power struggle
within the CDU. Wolfgang Schäuble, currently president of the Bundestag, is considered
a possible candidate for transition chancellor, and CDU Secretary-General
Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer could also be a candidate to take over as party
chair. Economics Minister Peter Altmaier's name has also been thrown into the
ring.
But snap elections would likely be inevitable. To that end,
the CDU's junior government coalition partner, the Social Democrats, have
already begun making preliminary preparations for that scenario. On Thursday
and Friday of last week and then again on Monday, SPD Secretary-General Lars
Klingbeil headed up three secret meetings. The issue: the possibility of a new
parliamentary election and the question of how to quickly organize a campaign.
Those sitting at the table included SPD Executive Director Thorben Albrecht and
departmental heads from the national party headquarters, among others. They
discussed possible dates for the election and the associated deadlines for
drawing up candidate lists and drafting political platforms.
They identified early September as the earliest possible
date for a new election. The Social Democrats have likewise already begun
looking for suitable venues for a special party conference. Officials in the
severely battered party are determined not to get caught off guard again as
they were at the end of last year. When talks for a so-called
"Jamaica" coalition between the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU), the
business-friendly Free Democrats and the Green Party collapsed, the SPD was
anything but prepared for the possibility of snap elections.
But even if the breakup of the CDU-CSU partnership can still
be prevented and early elections averted, Merkel can count on one thing -- it's
unlikely that there are any golden days left in her career as chancellor. As
long as she remains in office, the CSU will be unwilling to make peace with
her. And in contrast to the grand coalition governments that have preceded it,
the deeply insecure SPD will be largely concerned with its own well-being. It
has often been said, not unjustly, that Helmut Kohl's final years at Germany's
helm were heavy as lead. The ballast could get even heavier for Merkel.
And it could become even more obvious that Merkel, despite
her good intentions 20 years ago, has already missed the chance to find the
right time to exit the political stage.
By Melanie Amann, Anna Clauß, Markus Feldenkirchen, Jan
Friedmann, Christoph Hickmann, Christiane Hoffmann, Ann-Kathrin Jeske, Peter
Müller, Ralf Neukirch and René Pfister
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