A
growing challenge to Spain
Why
holding a referendum on Catalonian independence would be the best way
to solve the constitutional crisis.
By CARLES BOIX
10/3/15, 7:13 AM CET
http://www.politico.eu/article/growing-challenge-to-spain-catalonia-independence-regional-elections/
BARCELONA — On
Sunday Catalonia held what were certainly its most critical regional
elections since the restoration of an autonomous government in 1979.
A massive turnout, close to the exceptional participation rates
registered in Spain during the transition years to democracy four
decades ago, gave Sunday’s vote the momentum and international
coverage of something close to a referendum.
Pro-independence
parties secured a solid majority of parliamentary seats — 72 out of
135 — and 48 percent of the vote. Where five years ago,
pro-independence Catalan MPs numbered about a dozen, support for the
pro-independence movement is now spread almost uniformly across
Catalonia on an unprecedented scale. In Barcelona, home to almost a
third of the region’s population, pro-independence parties obtained
47 percent of the vote. Overall, they came in first in 907 out of 942
municipalities.
The remaining
parties running for office espoused very different programs on the
future political status of Catalonia. Three groups rejected
independence and a possible referendum on Catalonia’s future:
Rajoy’s Popular Party; a Catalan-based party called “Citizens”;
and the Spanish Socialist Party, together polling 39 percent of the
vote. In contrast to the unionist camp, Catalunya Sí Que Es Pot
(“Catalonia Yes We Can”) — a coalition of Podemos (the Spanish
Syriza), Catalan Greens and left-wing socialists — and a small
Christian democratic party acknowledged Catalonia’s right of
self-determination, supported holding a referendum on independence,
and promised a reform of the Spanish constitution to recognize
Catalonia as a nation and to grant it special political status within
Spain. They obtained 11.5 percent of the vote.
It would be a
mistake to add their vote automatically to the No camp or to the
unionist camp: Some of their candidates — and their voters —
would be content with genuine self-government within Spain but the
rest favor independence, preferring to wait for the general elections
in December to see if the Popular Party is dislodged from power.
The growing support
for independence in Catalonia in the last few years is a complex
phenomenon with multiple roots, but its key motivation is the lack of
real institutional guarantees against the systematic intervention of
the central government in policy areas that have been nominally
transferred to the Catalan government. Because Catalans are a
national minority within Spain, they have been always subject to the
vagaries of the majority and the latter’s interpretation of the
Spanish constitution. After years of asking for broader autonomy,
including a reform of the Catalan Autonomy Law in 2006 that was
rendered useless by the joint efforts of the Spanish Parliament and
the Constitutional Court, a growing number of Catalans have turned to
secession as a solution of last resort to protect their cultural,
linguistic and political rights.
Unless this
fundamental constitutional crisis is solved, the political “process
opened by the pro-independence parties will continue and will
continue in a more radical way,” to quote former president of the
Spanish government and the Popular Party José María Aznar on
Monday, after the elections.
Catalonia
I expect the
pro-independence parties to vote a formal declaration of sovereignty
in the next few months that will include yet another call to Madrid
and to the other Catalan parties to negotiate a compromise to this
political crisis. Spain should take this opportunity to authorize a
referendum on the political future of Catalonia.
Holding a referendum
on independence could be the best strategy to solve the undergoing
political crisis for at least three reasons. From a normative point
of view, it will reaffirm the commitment of Spain to the principle of
democracy — following the path that Canada and Britain took on the
Quebec and Scottish questions respectively. It will also meet the
demands of a very large majority of Catalans: About 80 percent of
them have consistently supported a referendum on self-determination
over the last few years. From a political point of view, holding a
negotiated referendum between Barcelona and Madrid will be tantamount
to formally recognizing Catalonia as a political subject, thereby
giving Catalans a good instrument to defend their political autonomy
— even if they decide to remain a part of Spain.
Last but not least,
holding a referendum will reduce the economic uncertainty that
surrounds secessions: As in the case of Scotland, the Catalan and
Spanish governments should agree, in a more or less explicit way, to
negotiate the implementation of the vote in good faith, minimizing
the costs for both sides of a potential separation.
Even though the
Spanish constitution permits the holding of nonbinding referendums,
it is unlikely that the current Spanish government will change course
and authorize one. Things may change in December — although at this
point the chances of this happening are slim, particularly given the
position of the Socialist party. If Spain does not offer a real
solution, I suspect a fraction of the voters in today’s middle
ground — the 11.5 percent who chose neither Yes nor No, and who
have given Madrid some breathing room — will break out in favor of
secession. With a little less than a fifth of all those ballots, the
Yes camp would then have more than 50 percent of the vote, making
independence an indisputable fact.
Carles Boix is a
professor of politics and public affairs at Princeton University and
member of the advisory council to the Catalan Government on the
National Transition (CATN).
Authors:
Carles Boix
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