How
Merkel and Europe came to embrace Erdoğan
The
refugee crisis changes EU’s tune on Turkey.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 10/16/15, 8:05 PM CET
At the outbreak of
the refugee crisis, Europe’s leaders insisted the region’s
response be guided by the principles of solidarity and humanity. With
no end to the refugee march in sight, those lofty aspirations are
fading as the continent trades its modern European ideal for a 19th
century German tactic: Realpolitik.
Only weeks ago,
Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was on his way to achieving
pariah status in Europe. His assaults on the basic tenets of
democracy, from a free press to minority rights, earned him censure
across the region.
Ankara’s surprise
decision in July to abandon the peace process with Kurds by attacking
rebel forces drew sharp criticism from Berlin and other capitals.
The outrage was
short-lived.
Last week, top EU
officials, including Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and
Council President Donald Tusk, hosted Erdoğan for dinner in
Brussels. The purpose was not to upbraid the Turkish leader, but to
plead for his help.
Erdoğan’s
transformation from pariah to partner underscores Europe’s
desperation to find a quick solution to the refugee crisis. The EU
remains deeply divided over how and whether to distribute the
refugees among its members. The infrastructure for handling the
influx in Germany, which has taken the lion’s share of refugees, is
teetering on verge of collapse.
Turkey, the byway to
Europe for the masses of Syrians, Iraqis and other refugees, is now
viewed as the linchpin to bringing the crisis under control.
“Negotiating with
Erdoğan is unavoidable,” said Thorsten Benner, Director of the
Berlin-based Global Public Policy Institute.
The only question
now is the price Europe is willing to pay to win his help. As so
often in Europe’s recent past, the answer depends largely on
Germany. Angela Merkel will visit Erdoğan Turkey on Sunday in the
hopes of closing a deal, the contours of which emerged at this
European summit.
On the table is a
mix of financial aid, up to €3 billion to help Turkey pay for the
refugees, as well as other measures, including visa liberalization
for Turks traveling to the EU.
Berlin has long
resisted relaxing visa requirements over concerns that doing so would
unleash an influx of Turks into Germany, which already has a sizeable
Turkish population.
Still, the
chancellor may have little choice. She faces a swelling backlash at
home, where local communities have been overwhelmed by the large
numbers of refugees. With as about 10,000 new arrivals every day, she
needs a solution soon.
German officials
acknowledge privately that Erdoğan has succeeded in manipulating the
situation into his favor. They accuse the Turkish leader of fomenting
the crisis by not enforcing Turkey’s border and allowing conditions
for the refugees to deteriorate to such an extent that they were
encouraged to leave. Turkey has taken in about 2.5 million refugees
since the Syrian crisis began. Many live below the poverty line.
So far, the only
criticism of Merkel’s overtures toward Turkey has come from the
ranks of the opposition. Leaders from the Left party and Greens say
the timing of Merkel’s trip, just two weeks before Turkish
elections, will allow Erdoğan to use the German leader for his
campaign.
“To pursue a deal
with a government that persecutes journalists, Kurds and unions is
declaration of humanitarian bankruptcy,” Sahra Wagenknecht, a
senior Left party official, said during a Bundestag debate Thursday,
adding that Merkel should cancel her trip.
Other critics
question what steps Turkey will take to secure its border and worry
that an EU-sponsored crackdown could lead to human rights abuses.
Despite such
warnings, a deal with Erdoğan is a price both European and German
leaders are willing to pay if it helps ease the crisis.
“Every German
politician would be thankful for any measures that slow down the
flow,” Benner said.
Authors:
Matthew Karnitschnig
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