Germany’s
refugee crisis
Merkel
at her limit
After
a historic embrace of refugees, German public opinion is turning
Oct 10th 2015 |
BERLIN | From the print edition
WHAT a difference a
month makes. On the night of September 4th Angela Merkel made the
most dramatic decision of her decade as German chancellor: to suspend
European asylum rules and allow tens of thousands of refugees
stranded in Hungary to enter Germany via Austria. It was a moral
gesture that fitted the mood of the moment. As The Economist went to
press, Mrs Merkel was considered a favourite to win the Nobel Peace
Prize.
In Germany, however,
that altruistic embrace has caused a backlash that could weaken a
chancellor so far considered all but invincible. Using
uncharacteristically missionary language, Mrs Merkel said repeatedly
that the right to asylum has “no upper limit”. But Joachim Gauck,
who as president is expected to keep out of workaday politics,
responded that “our reception capacity is limited even when it has
not yet been worked out where these limits lie.” As though on cue,
the political tone turned against Mrs Merkel.
The numbers are
dramatic. More than 200,000 migrants are believed to have arrived in
Germany in September alone. For the year, official forecasts had
already risen in August from 450,000 to 800,000. This week Bild,
Germany’s largest tabloid, cited estimates that the number could
reach 1.5m—equivalent to the population of Munich. New refugees
keep pouring in, and those granted asylum have the right to bring
family later. No end is in sight.
Processing centres
exceeded capacity weeks ago. Local authorities are struggling to find
housing, since temporary tent cities will not suffice in winter. The
government of Hamburg has begun seizing empty office buildings to
house refugees, raising constitutional questions. Berlin and Bremen
are considering similar measures. Schools are struggling to integrate
refugee children who speak no German.
Fights have broken
out inside overcrowded asylum centres, often between young men of
different ethnic or religious groups. There have been more arson
attacks on migrant centres. In Dresden, a xenophobic movement called
Pegida is growing again: about 9,000 protested this Monday against
refugees.
Mainstream society
is tolerant but edgy. In a survey by German public television 51% of
Germans say that they fear the refugee influx, 13 points more than in
September. Approval of Mrs Merkel dropped by 9 points to her lowest
level since 2011 (though it is still a respectable 54%). In two other
polls Mrs Merkel slid from Germany’s most popular politician to
fourth.
The fiercest
criticism of Mrs Merkel comes from within her own conservative
bloc—the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which she leads, and the
Christian Social Union (CSU), which exists only in Bavaria and
usually supports her. Horst Seehofer, the CSU’s boss and premier of
Bavaria, called Mrs Merkel’s decision “a mistake that will keep
us occupied for a long time”. In one meeting he threatened
half-seriously to drop off busloads of refugees at the federal
parliament in Berlin.
Gerda Hasselfeldt, a
CSU parliamentary leader, wants to erect transit zones along
Germany’s borders like those in airports. Markus Söder, Bavaria’s
finance minister, has called for a fence. A group of Christian
Democrats calling itself the “security club” debated closing
Germany’s borders to refugees entirely. Another group has written a
letter to Mrs Merkel charging that her refugee policy breaks the law.
In response Mrs
Merkel’s government is scrambling to make changes. It has passed
legislation that cuts pocket money to refugees, currently €143
($160) a month, and replaces it with vouchers. More police and
administrators are being hired. All Balkan countries have been
declared “safe” so that their asylum applicants can be rejected
and deported faster. On October 6th Mrs Merkel took charge of
co-ordinating refugee policy, in effect demoting the interior
minister, Thomas de Maizière.
None of this,
however, will reduce the numbers of Syrians, Iraqis and Afghans who
are fleeing war. Nor will last month’s agreement by the European
Union to allocate 120,000 refugees among member states. Mrs Merkel
had lobbied fiercely for it, but the compromise will barely dent
Germany’s refugee numbers.
She is now
concentrating her effort on getting Turkey, whence most refugees
cross into the EU, to intercept and keep more migrants. But Turkey
already hosts more than 2m. It will demand concessions such as easing
visa restrictions for Turks entering the EU. It will also expect
Germany to tone down criticism of Turkish crackdowns on the press and
on Kurdish separatists. It may ask for German help to create a buffer
zone in Syria.
Kommen together:
Eastern and Western Germany's fortunes since reunification
Meanwhile, Germans
have begun to feel that the refugee crisis could change Germany even
more than reunification did 25 years ago. Back then the task was to
let that which belongs together grow together, as Willy Brandt, a
former chancellor, famously said. Speaking on October 3rd, the
anniversary of unification, Mr Gauck—like Mrs Merkel a former East
German—said that today’s challenge is greater because “what
should now grow together has so far not belonged together.” Germans
worry whether Muslim refugees will accept German norms of sexual
equality, secularism and Germany’s special responsibility towards
Israel and Jews.
The backlash does
not yet threaten Mrs Merkel’s hold on power. While extremist
parties have become serious contenders for power in some other
European countries, they remain marginal in Germany, and voters have
faith that their government will restore order, says Timo Lochocki of
the German Marshall Fund, a think-tank. The chancellor faces no
Christian Democratic challenger. The centre-left Social Democrats are
internally torn. And the leftist opposition cannot attack her for a
refugee policy they themselves support.
Mrs Merkel is under
pressure as never before. Yet the crisis has brought out a new style
of leadership in her. For years she has been accused of following
public opinion rather than guiding it. Now she has found her moral
calling. “If we start having to apologise for showing a friendly
face in emergencies,” she says defiantly, “then this is not my
country.”
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário