Britain is leaving the EU – just as
Europe is on the up
Natalie Nougayrède
Merkel and Macron are planning for a
‘golden decade’ and won’t let Brexit negotiations derail them
Sunday 18 June 2017 19.52 BST Last modified on Sunday 18
June 2017 22.09 BST
That Helmut Kohl, the man who oversaw the reunification of
Germany and was for so long a giant on the European stage, should die on the
eve of negotiations leading to Britain’s withdrawal from the EU seems symbolic.
The former German chancellor made the best of the extraordinary circumstances
and public mood that followed the collapse of communism and the opening up of
eastern Europe.
Today’s European leaders are, by contrast, confronted with
an especially adverse set of circumstances. Trump, Putin, Erdoğan, terrorism,
unprecedented flows of migration, unemployment, the rise of populism and, of
course, Brexit. But, just as Kohl and his French contemporary François
Mitterrand relaunched the European project in the early 1990s, Angela Merkel
and Emmanuel Macron are, as Britain prepares to leave, readying their ambitions
and vision for the continent.
At stake is no less than Europe’s role in defending liberal
democratic values and a rules-based international order at a time when – as one
former Obama administration official put it to me recently – Trump’s America is
“missing in action and the UK is disappearing into oblivion”. The words may be
harsh, but they underscore that Britain’s central weakness lies not only in its
internal political confusion – but also with a dangerous ignorance of what its
European neighbours are setting their sights on.
The Franco-German engine is not focusing on Brexit but
rather on consolidating the 60-year-old European project through further
integration and cooperation. At the heart of this stands an emerging
Macron-Merkel deal, intended to act as Europe’s new powerhouse. On 15 May, the
French and German leaders met and spoke of a new “roadmap” for the EU. The
thinking goes like this: in the next two to three years, as France carries out
structural economic reforms to boost its credibility, Germany will step up
much-needed European financial solidarity and investment mechanisms, and
embrace a new role on foreign policy, security and defence.
For Britain, being aware of the wider European context
should be an important part of assessing options. The sobering fact, from
Britain’s perspective, is that however important a challenge Brexit may
represent, it is hardly the sole topic other Europeans are focused on. Brexit
is not their obsession, but a British one. Continentals mostly see it as a
tedious burden whose outcome can only be bad for everyone so the task is about
limiting damage.
Outside Britain, the mood in the EU is on the upswing.
Europe’s economic situation has improved. Unemployment in the eurozone is at
its lowest since 2009 (but still at 9.5%). Growth has returned. Mario Draghi,
the head of the European Central Bank, speaks of “a solid and broad recovery”.
Populist forces have suffered political defeats, in Austria, the Netherlands,
France, Italy and Finland.
Across the continent, citizens’ support for the EU is on the
rise, according to Eurobarometer surveys. Polls show Europeans are increasingly
in favour of a “multiple speed” or “flexible” EU, in which ad hoc groups of
member states would forge ahead with new projects. For all the headlines about
a populist movement eating away at the EU’s foundations, it seems all the
shockwaves the continent has felt in recent years have brought a renewed sense
of belonging, and an appetite for better, if not more, integration.
To be clear: this is not thanks to Brexit, but despite it.
Strengthening the EU project and opening up horizons is what Germany, France
and the European commission are intensely working on. To believe that Europeans
are gloating, or cynically happy to capitalise on Brexit, is to fall into a
Trump-like vision of a zero-sum world in which one side’s gain is the other’s
loss. When occasional continental voices claim they relish the thought of
Brexit, be sure there is more provocation at play than sound appreciation of
the meaning of the process, or of its consequences.
The point is that the EU has turned a corner, and feels more
confident. It wants to develop its capacities to act internationally beyond its
borders – not just perpetually fix its internal problems. It has no other choice,
because of its geopolitical environment. Some of this predates the Brexit
referendum.
A European defence fund is now being discussed, notably for
joint procurement efforts (but don’t expect a European army to emerge). Also,
there is talk of setting up a European Monetary Fund, and increasing
investments for job creation.
One German official told me his country was undergoing “a
sea change” because public opinion had come around to the view that “Europe
should take on more responsibility” if the US retreated. This was not to say,
he quickly added, that Merkel should be seen as the leader of the west or a new
embodiment of the Statue of Liberty – she herself has called that “absurd”. But
in recent discussions with European experts and officials, I heard the
following comment: “A golden decade may be dawning for Europe.” A new narrative
is in the air.
There are many caveats, no doubt. Anxieties are rife about
Italian banks, for example. Resistance in Germany’s finance ministry about
anything that may weigh on German taxpayers has by no means gone away.
Germany’s role in security and defence still stirs gruelling domestic debates –
even as the country deploys troops in Lithuania as part of Nato’s deterrence of
Russia. Much will depend on the outcome of German elections in September. The
populist wave in Europe may have ebbed, but it hasn’t disappeared, nor all the
factors that fuelled it. Brexit will be time consuming and will take up huge
amounts of energy.
Still, the scenario of a European reawakening shouldn’t be
discarded – especially not in Britain, as it heads for a wrenching exit. With
Trump and Brexit, Europe now has a role in defending values and international
institutions in a way that was “unprecedented”, insists a former Obama
official. “Europe needs to hold the fort, as long as Trump remains in office.
It’s Europe’s moment.”
A Luxembourg foreign minister once infamously proclaimed
that 1992 would be “the hour of Europe”. The expression drew bitter irony as
Europe dismally failed to put an end to the human catastrophe in the former
Yugoslavia. But 1992 was also the year when, under Kohl and Mitterrand’s
guidance, the Maastricht treaty transformed the European Economic Community
into a formal union. The real emphasis in Europe, 25 years on, is not on Brexit
or breakups, but on how, in a shifting world, the EU can acquire new,
indispensable significance.
Just as Kohl and Mitterrand seized the opportunities that
history presented to them, Merkel and Macron are, in different circumstances,
identifying their path towards a common European endeavour. After a decade of
crisis, Europe may now be pulling out of it. More British awareness of this
might help avert bad choices.
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