Who's who in the Syrian conflict, and what happens next?

Who's who in the Syrian conflict, and what happens next?

Russian targets so far include secular fighters who have received limited backing from the US, and more hardline Islamist groups

Martin Chulov

Thursday 1 October 2015 18.48 BST

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/01/whos-who-syrian-conflict-russian-airstrikes

Who have the Russians attacked in Syria?

Syria’s armed opposition is thought to number more than 100,000 fighters. It is made up of a mixture of groups who have shifted alliances throughout four years of war.

The Russian targets so far include a small number of avowedly secular fighters who have received limited backing from the United States and the Gulf states. They fight under the banner of the Free Syrian Army (FSA) and are mainly located in central Syria, near the cities of Hama and Homs. Among them are at least two groups – Tajamu Ala’Azza and Liwa Suqor al-Jebel – which have received limited CIA training and been supplied with anti-tank rockets that have taken a heavy toll on regime armour over the past year.

On Thursday the leaders of both groups confirmed that their camps north of Hama and in Idlib had been targeted. The US senator John McCain told the Senate armed services committee that at least one of the groups had been backed by the CIA. Support for the groups and other vetted opposition units had also been given by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, although both countries – Qatar in particular – has offered more robust backing to Islamic groups in other parts of Syria.

A second round of Russian strikes later on Wednesday in Idlib province hit more hardline Islamist groups, Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra. The US and much of Europe have proscribed al-Nusra as a terrorist group and US jets have attacked it at times during the 14-month air campaign that Washington has waged against Isis.

All these groups have fought Isis during the past two years, ousting them from Idlib province and the Aleppo countryside during a six-week battle in early 2014. They maintained on Thursday that there was no Isis presence within 60 miles of the sites Russia hit in Hama and Homs or within 50 miles of the targets in the north.

Who is backing the opposition?

The FSA was the dominant arm of the opposition in the first two years of the war and made significant gains against loyalist forces in the centre, south and north of the country. Initially it received backing from Arab states and cautious support from the US. Now though, after years of disunity and faltering advances, its influence has shrunk to a section of central Syria and the southern border with Jordan.

The early years of the rebel army were backed by Qatar and Turkey, with limited support from the US. Saudi Arabia joined the fray in early 2013, initially from the southern front, which it saw as the quickest route to Damascus. The US has maintained its support for a small number of groups, but its efforts to form and arm a large rebel force to target Isis has failed spectacularly.

As the FSA advances faltered, its unity splintered and the war for the north, in particular, became increasingly dominated by Islamist groups and jihadis. Turkey has remained a staunch supporter of Ahrar al-Sham, which is closely aligned to the Muslim Brotherhood movement. It has also offered backing to Jabhat al-Nusra, despite being proscribed by Washington.

Jabhat al-Nusra and Ahrar al-Sham are strong in the Idlib countryside near Turkey. Isis dominates the east and is once again ascendant near Aleppo, while moderate units prevail in much of the south, except in the Golan Heights.

Central Syria, particularly the strip of the county running south-east from Tartous on the Mediterranean coast to Homs, is still home to secular groups and moderate Islamists, who are fighting for a change of power in Syria but have declared their support for the state within its current borders.

What might happen next?

Opposition groups in central Syria reject claims from Moscow that Russia views them as allies, and say they will continue to be prime targets for Vladimir Putin’s jets. The moderates say targeting them will drive people towards extremism, because such an air campaign would demonstrate that Russia had opened a war on Syrian people as opposed to a mutual enemy in Isis.

The opening of such a front seems unlikely to do anything to unify disparate groups, which have at times formally allied in parts of the country but have never fought under a cohesive banner. There are believed to be more than 100 opposition units of all hues scattered across Syria.