Portugal’s
election goes down to the wire
Deadlock
looms as polls point to minority center-right government
By PAUL AMES
10/2/15, 5:30 AM CET
LISBON —
Portugal’s center-right government heads into Sunday’s elections
with a widening lead over the opposition Socialists in the latest
opinion polls, but the country risks political gridlock with neither
side winning an outright majority.
The governing
Forward Portugal (PàF) coalition is forecast to win 39.7 percent,
ahead of the Socialist Party (PS) with 31.6 percent, according to an
average of four polls published Wednesday.
That would mark a
stinging defeat for Socialist leader António Costa who appears
unable to harness widespread discontent with the past four years of
austerity.
Yet, without a
majority of the 230 seats in the Assembleia da República, Prime
Minister Pedro Passos Coelho could find himself leading a weakened
administration unable to push through reforms needed to consolidate
the country’s fragile economic recovery.
“If the polls are
right, we’re headed for a political crisis,” says Nuno Garoupa,
president of the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation, a Lisbon
think tank.
“It’s going to
be very difficult to form a government and to approve a budget for
2016,” he said. “The coming months are going to be extremely
complicated.”
Passos Coelho has
spent his final days on the campaign trail seeking to whip up support
by warning of the risks of instability should the center-right fail
to secure a majority.
“Let’s not have
any illusions. Without stability for the future … it won’t be
possible to achieve our objectives,” he told a rally this week in
the central city of Pombal.
However, any kind of
win represents a remarkable turnaround for Passos Coelho — a year
ago one poll showed his popularity rating trailing Costa’s by 20
points.
His recovery could
offer lessons for upcoming elections in Spain and Ireland where
center-right governments are also defending a record of post-bailout,
austerity and reform.
After coming to
power in 2011, the government was vilified for imposing tax hikes,
cuts in salaries, pensions and public services. The opposition
claimed austerity measures went beyond the terms of €78 billion
bailout deal that the previous — Socialist — government
negotiated with the European Union and International Monetary Fund.
Unemployment reached
a record 17 percent in 2013. Almost 4 percent of the population
emigrated over the past four years. Strikes and mass demonstrations
paralyzed Lisbon.
Lately though,
Passos Coelho, 51, has been able to point to signs his unpopular
reforms are starting to pay off.
In June, the economy
recorded five quarters of unbroken growth for the first time since
the 1990s. Exports and tourism have boomed. Unemployment has fallen 5
percentage points.
Socialist leader
Costa, 54, has struggled to straddle seemingly contradictory policy
positions.
He’s downplayed
the scale of the recovery, but also sought to reassure middle-of-the
road voters with talk of economic responsibility and moderate reform.
At the same time, he’s spouted more radical rhetoric to woo
supporters of the hardline Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the
Syriza-allied Left Bloc (BE).
Unlike the Greeks
and Spanish, cautious Portuguese voters declined to flock en masse to
the far left as the euro crisis bit. The PCP is on course to capture
around 9 percent of the vote, while the Left Bloc is polling just
over 8 percent.
A dozen smaller
parties — ranging from Maoists to monarchists — are also
competing and one or two might capture a seat.
Voter turnout is
likely to hit record lows, as voters register their dissatisfaction
by staying home, although rain forecast for the weekend should
discourage those tempted to ditch ballot boxes for the beach.
As his ratings slip,
Costa has been trying to rally the disaffected to the PS cause.
“There is an
overwhelming majority among the Portuguese who are firmly determined
to put an end to this government and these policies,” he told
supporters in the northern town of Vila Nova de Gaia. “Every vote
is going to be absolutely essential.”
Yet many voters
remain unconvinced he’d do a better job than the center-right in
nurturing more growth. A lackluster campaign by both parties has
done little to mobilize the undecided.
During the only live
TV debate between the leading candidates, viewers dozed as Costa and
Passos Coelho embarked on a lengthy discussion over the pros and cons
of “vertical” versus “horizontal” restructuring of social
security.
On many policy
issues, the two sides are not a million miles apart.
The center-right
argues the improving economy will allow it to gradually cut taxes and
ease austerity by raising pensions for the most needy and reversing
public sector wage cuts.
Costa says a
Socialist government will roll back austerity faster.
Passos Coelho argues
that would risk breaking EU budget deficit rules.
Both are committed
to keeping Portugal in the eurozone. They are equally Atlanticist,
backing a strong NATO and the ongoing EU-U.S. free trade zone
negotiations.
Yet a German-style
“grand coalition” is unlikely.
With the likelihood
of a minority center-right administration, the Socialists will face a
difficult choice.
They could team up
with the far-left to vote down the government and force repeat
elections or let the minority administration limp on, dependent on PS
support to get any measures through parliament.
Either way, unless
the polls have got things very wrong, Portugal looks to be facing
choppy political waters in the months ahead.
If the vote really
comes down to the wire, the country may have to wait for days before
it’s even clear who’s won.
There are four seats
in parliament allocated to Portuguese emigrants spread around the
world. They could be crucial, but the count of their votes is not
expected to be complete until Oct. 14.
Authors:
Paul Ames
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário