LETTER FROM LISBON
Four
political scenarios for Portugal
Why the
Conservatives have a right to be satisfied.
By VÍTOR MATOS
10/6/15, 2:57 PM CET Updated 10/6/15, 3:56 PM CET
LISBON —
Portuguese politicians are playing in a new chess game these days:
Right-wing pro-austerity parties won the election, but the left has
the arithmetical majority in Parliament. Here are some moves we can
anticipate, without fearing a stalemate.
1. Harmonious right,
divided left.
This is not Greece.
Or Spain. Portugal is instead a strange place where pro-austerity
ruling parties won the parliamentary elections, against all odds.
A few weeks ago,
most people from the two center-right parties thought that only a
miracle could give them victory. But the tables turned and they ended
the campaign fighting for a majority, even if the Portuguese don’t
take particular pleasure in self-mutilation through austerity and
loss of income. But all this is even more complex than you might
think.
To get it straight,
you have to understand the oddities of the Portuguese political
parties. The leading Social Democratic Party (PSD) is a member of the
European People’s Party and not a center-left organization as its
name might suggest. Ever since Pedro Passos Coelho — the prime
minister and party leader — came to power, the PSD has become
increasingly liberal, above all else. The junior coalition party —
the Democratic and Social Center (CDS) — is, in fact, not a club
for moderate centrists but a right-wing conservative group, led since
1999 by the former muckraking journalist Paulo Portas. He started
Euroskeptic, became anti-eurozone, progressed to “eurocalm” and
has now come round to euro-enthusiasm. Together, this coalition took
36.8 percent of the vote.
The Socialist Party,
in reality, is the true social-democratic party. António Costa, the
PS leader since September 2014, overthrew his predecessor because he
had won the European elections by only a slim margin. But in Sunday’s
vote, Costa suffered a bigger defeat than his predecessor’s
victory. The man who was said to be a sure thing as the next prime
minister took just 32.3 percent of the vote. And now the awkwardness
begins. The Syriza-inspired Left Bloc and the Communist Party (yes,
there are still real Communists in Portugal) together won almost 20
percent of the vote. But in 41 years of democracy, the left has never
sat in a circle to join hands and sing Kumbaya. They surely won’t
do it now.
2. Stability rules…
for now.
Portugal’s got
nothing like the Syriza phenomena in Greece or Podemos in Spain, but
the center-left and left parties hold a majority in the Parliament.
The Left Bloc and the Communists say they will vote against the
right-wing government on pretty much every issue, but certainly on
the budget and anything with a whiff of austerity. Which leaves the
Europe-friendly PS like the filling in a sandwich between the right
and the more radical left. It’s not a very appetizing filling,
either: António Costa is now such a weak leader that he will have to
support the government’s budget, and then wait to see how the ball
breaks. So the most likely near-term scenario is that of the
right-wing minority ruling with the grudging support of the
Socialists.
In this scenario,
European partners can relax, because the drama in the next few days
may not end in a meltdown. For now, Portugal won’t be a focus of
instability. At least, for some months…
3. Presidential
elections in January are key.
If there is a
political crisis, President Cavaco Silva can’t dissolve Parliament
because he is in the last six months of his term. Simultaneously, the
Assembly can’t be dismissed in the first six months after the
general elections, because the constitution forbids it. The key
player will be the new president elected in January. The candidate in
the best position to win, the polls say, is Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa,
a law professor and political pundit turned TV celebrity, who led the
PSD in the late 1990s. He is such a political gambler that Passos
Coelho called him a “media weathervane.”
He will recover use
of the presidential “atomic bomb” in April: the right to dissolve
Parliament and call for general elections. This is so likely that
Passos Coelho said in the campaign that without a majority, Portugal
could have new elections before next summer.
What can we expect?
A rising drama level in March and April, when the government has to
approve the stability program to send to Brussels. If the polls are
positive, the government will do everything it can to be overthrown
by the president. That’s the next scenario…
4. Should markets
fear new elections and instability next summer?
Let’s face it: The
markets appreciate pro-austerity right-wing governments. If the next
Socialist leader is a moderate, the government will do all it can to
help him survive, and grasp his support for one more budget. If,
instead, he turns out to be be a Portuguese Jeremy Corbyn, the
“austerity coalition” may get a new lease of life. The Portuguese
usually punish those who bring down a government and trigger new
elections, and that scenario may be attractive for Passos Coelho.
If there is a
radicalization of the PS, the government will almost certainly wish
for fresh elections, the better to consolidate itself in Parliament.
The markets and Portugal’s European partners won’t have much to
fear from Lisbon until then … unless the government doesn’t
accomplish its deficit goals.
If Portugal reaches
a deficit under 3 percent this year it would be unprecedented in the
country’s modern democratic era. The government goal is 2.7
percent, and they say they will deliver.
Vítor Matos is a
political journalist at the Portuguese weekly news magazine Sábado.
Authors:
Vítor Matos
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