Bittersweet
victory for Portugal’s right
Without
a majority, the center-right government will be on Socialist
life-support.
By PAUL AMES
10/5/15, 7:34 PM CET Updated 10/5/15, 8:11 PM CET
LISBON —
Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho’s election victory
raised a cheer in Berlin — which hailed it as a sign that adopting
German-prescribed austerity doesn’t have to mean alienating voters.
But it will taste bittersweet to Passos Coelho, who from now on will
need the defeated Socialists to stay in power.
Passos Coelho’s
center-right coalition won 104 of the 230 seats in the Assembleia da
República in Sunday’s vote, well ahead of the Socialist Party (PS)
on 85.
His coalition’s
failure to secure an absolute majority leaves Portugal facing
political uncertainty. As the limitations of his victory became clear
Monday, Passos Coelho was quick to reach out to Socialist leader
António Costa. He offered “indispensable compromises” in
exchange for PS support for a minority government.
Costa, however, is
also being wooed by the left. Radical parties who made gains at the
ballot box want him to join them in an alliance to prevent the right
from staying in power.
“A center-right
minority government won’t govern Portugal, if we can help it,”
said Catarina Martins, leader of the Left Bloc. “We are clear,
we’ll reject it in parliament, now we’re waiting to hear from the
other parties.”
The Left Bloc —
close to Greece’s left-wing Syriza, which was divided by Prime
Minister Alexis Tsipras‘ reluctant embrace of austerity reforms —
scored its best-ever result, doubling its seats to 19. If it teams up
with the Socialists and the Portuguese Communist Party, which won 17
seats, the three of them could keep the center-right out.
Costa is unlikely to
agree, but the Socialists are in a tough spot.
“The
(right) cannot continue to govern as if nothing has happened” —
Socialist leader Antóno Costa
The PS’s
traditionally moderate and mainstream views are at odds with the
Communists and the Bloc, whose wishlists include ditching the euro
and pulling out of NATO.
Joining them would
be an unprecedented move for the PS, bearing the risk of alienating
its centrist supporters.
But endorsing a
center-right program also has dangers. Tainted by unpopular
right-of-center austerity policies, the PS could risk a vote
hemorrhage to the far left, similar to the fate of their Greek
comrades in PASOK.
Costa, who could be
facing a challenge to his leadership, has hinted that he’ll take
the centrist option. However, he has also warned Passos Coelho to
expect to pay a high price for Socialist support.
“There’s a new
situation, the (right) cannot continue to govern as if nothing has
happened,” Costa told supporters.
Two years, at best
He said the
Socialists would impose four conditions for their support: a roll
back of austerity measures; defense of the welfare state and public
services; boosting investment; and respect for Portugal’s European
commitments.
The last one won’t
be difficult for Passos Coelho, who has linked the budgetary rigor of
the past four years with pledges to the EU.
Furthermore, the
center-right already promised in its election program to use the
recent modest upturn of Portugal’s economic fortunes to back away
from some of the harshest austerity measures.
President Aníbal
Cavaco Silva was expected to wait until all votes have been counted
from Portuguese emigrants around the world, before inviting anyone to
form a government. But on Monday evening he announced that he will
meet with Passos Coelho on Tuesday evening.
If the Socialists
and Passos Coelho’s Forward Portugal coalition manage to strike a
deal, an early test will be the 2016 budget which the government
needs to have in place by the end of the year.
During the campaign,
Costa said he would not validate any center-right budget. To change
his mind, the government may have to speed up the reversal of public
sector salary reductions, back down over corporate tax cuts and
accelerate the repeal of supplementary income taxes imposed during
the darkest days of the euro-zone debt crisis.
A budget deal would
give the government breathing space, but most analysts in Lisbon
think it unlikely the minority government will serve it’s full
four-year term.
The constitution
says there must be at least six months between parliamentary
elections, so the early return to the polling stages will have to
wait a bit. Two years is the maximum most analysts give for the
survival of a Passos Coelho government that will be obliged to seek
Socialist support for every measure.
Lessons for Europe
In Brussels and
Berlin, there was clear relief at the coalition’s win, mingled with
unease over the risk of gridlock.
“The result shows
that a policy of success can have good chance of being accepted by
much of the population, that’s encouraging,” said German Finance
Minister Wolfgang Schäuble. He cautioned, however, that “it won’t
be easy to form a government.”
Passos Coelho’s
win was heartening for other conservatives defending austerity
policies, especially Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy who faces
an election in December and Ireland’s Enda Kenny, who’s expected
to go to the polls early next year.
In both Spain and
Ireland however the center-right — and mainstream politicians more
generally — face a tougher challenge than in Portugal.
The relatively
strong showing of the far left in Portugal meant the combined vote
for the two mainstream parties was the lowest in 30 years, but still
came in at over 70 percent.
In comparison, polls
show support for Rajoy’s People’s Party and the Spanish
Socialists risks falling below 50 percent in the face of rising new
parties like the leftist Podemos. The two main centrist parties in
Ireland have similar pressures from Sinn Féin and several emerging
groups.
In Portugal, voters
mostly chose to channel discontent by staying home — at 43 percent,
the abstention rate was the highest since democracy was restored in
1974.
Authors:
Paul Ames
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