terça-feira, 6 de outubro de 2015

Bittersweet victory for Portugal’s right


Bittersweet victory for Portugal’s right
Without a majority, the center-right government will be on Socialist life-support.

By PAUL AMES 10/5/15, 7:34 PM CET Updated 10/5/15, 8:11 PM CET


LISBON — Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho’s election victory raised a cheer in Berlin — which hailed it as a sign that adopting German-prescribed austerity doesn’t have to mean alienating voters. But it will taste bittersweet to Passos Coelho, who from now on will need the defeated Socialists to stay in power.

Passos Coelho’s center-right coalition won 104 of the 230 seats in the Assembleia da República in Sunday’s vote, well ahead of the Socialist Party (PS) on 85.


His coalition’s failure to secure an absolute majority leaves Portugal facing political uncertainty. As the limitations of his victory became clear Monday, Passos Coelho was quick to reach out to Socialist leader António Costa. He offered “indispensable compromises” in exchange for PS support for a minority government.

Costa, however, is also being wooed by the left. Radical parties who made gains at the ballot box want him to join them in an alliance to prevent the right from staying in power.

“A center-right minority government won’t govern Portugal, if we can help it,” said Catarina Martins, leader of the Left Bloc. “We are clear, we’ll reject it in parliament, now we’re waiting to hear from the other parties.”

The Left Bloc — close to Greece’s left-wing Syriza, which was divided by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras‘ reluctant embrace of austerity reforms — scored its best-ever result, doubling its seats to 19. If it teams up with the Socialists and the Portuguese Communist Party, which won 17 seats, the three of them could keep the center-right out.

Costa is unlikely to agree, but the Socialists are in a tough spot.

The (right) cannot continue to govern as if nothing has happened” — Socialist leader Antóno Costa

The PS’s traditionally moderate and mainstream views are at odds with the Communists and the Bloc, whose wishlists include ditching the euro and pulling out of NATO.

Joining them would be an unprecedented move for the PS, bearing the risk of alienating its centrist supporters.

But endorsing a center-right program also has dangers. Tainted by unpopular right-of-center austerity policies, the PS could risk a vote hemorrhage to the far left, similar to the fate of their Greek comrades in PASOK.

Costa, who could be facing a challenge to his leadership, has hinted that he’ll take the centrist option. However, he has also warned Passos Coelho to expect to pay a high price for Socialist support.

“There’s a new situation, the (right) cannot continue to govern as if nothing has happened,” Costa told supporters.

Two years, at best

He said the Socialists would impose four conditions for their support: a roll back of austerity measures; defense of the welfare state and public services; boosting investment; and respect for Portugal’s European commitments.

The last one won’t be difficult for Passos Coelho, who has linked the budgetary rigor of the past four years with pledges to the EU.

Furthermore, the center-right already promised in its election program to use the recent modest upturn of Portugal’s economic fortunes to back away from some of the harshest austerity measures.

President Aníbal Cavaco Silva was expected to wait until all votes have been counted from Portuguese emigrants around the world, before inviting anyone to form a government. But on Monday evening he announced that he will meet with Passos Coelho on Tuesday evening.

If the Socialists and Passos Coelho’s Forward Portugal coalition manage to strike a deal, an early test will be the 2016 budget which the government needs to have in place by the end of the year.

During the campaign, Costa said he would not validate any center-right budget. To change his mind, the government may have to speed up the reversal of public sector salary reductions, back down over corporate tax cuts and accelerate the repeal of supplementary income taxes imposed during the darkest days of the euro-zone debt crisis.

A budget deal would give the government breathing space, but most analysts in Lisbon think it unlikely the minority government will serve it’s full four-year term.

The constitution says there must be at least six months between parliamentary elections, so the early return to the polling stages will have to wait a bit. Two years is the maximum most analysts give for the survival of a Passos Coelho government that will be obliged to seek Socialist support for every measure.

Lessons for Europe

In Brussels and Berlin, there was clear relief at the coalition’s win, mingled with unease over the risk of gridlock.

“The result shows that a policy of success can have good chance of being accepted by much of the population, that’s encouraging,” said German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble. He cautioned, however, that “it won’t be easy to form a government.”

Passos Coelho’s win was heartening for other conservatives defending austerity policies, especially Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy who faces an election in December and Ireland’s Enda Kenny, who’s expected to go to the polls early next year.

In both Spain and Ireland however the center-right — and mainstream politicians more generally — face a tougher challenge than in Portugal.

The relatively strong showing of the far left in Portugal meant the combined vote for the two mainstream parties was the lowest in 30 years, but still came in at over 70 percent.

In comparison, polls show support for Rajoy’s People’s Party and the Spanish Socialists risks falling below 50 percent in the face of rising new parties like the leftist Podemos. The two main centrist parties in Ireland have similar pressures from Sinn Féin and several emerging groups.

In Portugal, voters mostly chose to channel discontent by staying home — at 43 percent, the abstention rate was the highest since democracy was restored in 1974.

Authors:


Paul Ames  

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