Germany
now expects 1.5 million refugees in 2015
Berlin’s
welcoming approach has cooled in the face of rapidly rising numbers.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 10/5/15, 12:15 PM CET Updated 10/5/15, 12:58 PM CET
Germany authorities
expect as many as 1.5 million refugees to arrive in the country this
year, or nearly double the last official estimate, Bild newspaper
reported.
Citing a classified
government report, the newspaper said officials are concerned that
Germany’s infrastructure for dealing with the refugees could
collapse, as many communities have already reached their limits. The
government in Berlin didn’t immediately comment on the report.
If accurate, the
news will further inflame Germany’s increasingly emotional debate
over the influx of refugees from Syria and other troubled countries
in the region.
Angela Merkel’s
open-door policy toward asylum seekers initially won praise from many
in Germany and coincided with an outpouring of charity. But with
nearly 300,000 refugees arriving in the past month alone, the
national mood has shifted and a majority of Germans now say they are
“scared” by the huge numbers of asylum seekers coming across the
border.
In recent days, as
many as 10,000 a day have arrived, despite the reintroduction of
border controls with Germany’s neighbors. Officials now worry that
this pace could continue through the end of the year, according to
Bild.
As many as 920,000
refugees are expected between October and December alone, the report
says. Factoring in family members — typically four to eight
relatives join every asylum recipient — the total could reach more
than 7 million. Though the family contingent would arrive much later,
such forecasts are unnerving many politicians and sparking loud calls
for tougher controls.
The estimate of 1.5
million refugees cited by Bild compares to a forecast of 800,000
issued by the interior ministry in August, the last official
pronouncement on the issue. Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel
subsequently put the number at 1 million but other officials
challenged the reliability of the figure.
Privately,
government officials concede they have no idea how many people will
come. Refugee camps in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey are overflowing and
aid there, including rations, has been cut back due to the
overcapacity. In years past, the number of refugees traveling to
Europe has increased in the fall as those fleeing seek to leave
before winter sets in.
Authors:
Matthew Karnitschnig
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