Scotland’s
independence road got longer
The UK
election result means Nicola Sturgeon’s nationalists are steeling themselves
for the long game.
By SIMON
JONES 1/9/20, 9:29 PM CET Updated 1/10/20, 4:43 AM CET
Nicola
Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, and her troops are steeling themselves
for the long game
GLASGOW —
Scotland's nationalists are coming to terms with a longer trudge toward their
dream of independence than they had hoped.
The
decisive victory of Boris Johnson's Conservatives in the U.K. general election
has dashed any hopes of an independence referendum this year. Scotland's
nationalist government needs formal permission to hold such a vote from
Westminster, which will not be forthcoming, despite the prime minister's
promise to "carefully consider" a request.
But Nicola
Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, and her troops are steeling themselves
for the long game. They are banking on the argument that with Brexit now on
track for January 31, Remain-voting Scotland will be wrenched from the EU
against its will.
Her
Scottish National Party argues that Indyref 2, as it has become known, is
warranted because of Scotland's changed status since the previous "once in
a generation" referendum vote in 2014, in which the independence camp
lost. If the U.K.'s divorce turns sour, then that argument will likely become
more potent.
Right to
choose
Scotland's
leader lost no time after the election result in setting out her stall for
Indyref 2. Even before Johnson had made it back to the House of Commons
despatch box, her government published Scotland’s Right to Choose — a document
laying out the case for breaking away.
“We have a situation where the vast majority of people
in Scotland do not want Brexit” — Nicola Sturgeon, Scottish first minister
Its
reasoning is that Scotland must now, regrettably, reconsider its place in the
U.K. due to the untold damage it argues Brexit will cause and the subjugation
of the nation's interests by a dominant England.
This is a
shift from the optimism and promise that characterized the 2014 Yes campaign,
but which was undermined by a failure of Sturgeon's Scottish National Party
(SNP) to adequately address key economic questions.
But if the
sell is different, the mechanism is the same — a legal referendum, which must
be sanctioned by Johnson's government. Sturgeon is unwavering in her belief
that independence can only be achieved by such a route, and will not consider
holding a rogue vote as Catalan separatists did in Spain in 2017. While such a
vote might deliver the result Sturgeon wants, London may find it easy to
dismiss the vote, as Madrid did with Catalonia.
But with
support for independence bouncing stubbornly between 42 and 45 percent over the
last 12 months, the SNP hopes to alchemize a swing in voters outraged at
Brexit, and the prospect of untrammeled rule by Johnson's Tories.
Domestic
dangers
At the decade’s
inaugural First Minister’s Questions on Thursday, Sturgeon reminded the
chamber, which had voted the previous day to withhold consent for the Brexit
Withdrawal Agreement, that “we have a situation where the vast majority of
people in Scotland do not want Brexit.”
Still,
other factors threaten to spoil Sturgeon's pitch. The trial of Alex Salmond,
former Scottish first minister and SNP leader, for an alleged string of sexual
assaults, is due to begin in March.
Salmond
remains something of a totemic figure in sections of the party and the wider
pro-independence movement, evidenced by the six-figure crowdfund he raised to
finance a judicial review of the Scottish government’s handling of the sexual
harassment allegations against him. The trial threatens weeks of odious
coverage for Sturgeon.
Away from
the courts is another pressing concern: Scotland's budget. The U.K.
government's decision to delay its budget until March 11 led to allegations
from Scotland's Finance Secretary Derek Mackay that the Westminster government
was being "disrespectful" to the Edinburgh parliament.
Mackay had
planned to set out his budget in December but had to hold off because of the
snap general election. The delay means a much curtailed time period in which to
draw up a budget for Scotland, which Mackay says poses a risk to public
services and local government funding. If disruptions to services such as
health care or transport do arise, Scottish voters might blame the SNP
government, despite its protestations.
Sturgeon
could well also be tripped up by local scandals involving sub-standard public
services. At a major new hospital in Glasgow, water quality linked by
campaigners to poor building standards has been implicated in the deaths of
several children. Another new hospital’s opening has been delayed by over a
year. Public inquiries into both cases will guarantee unwanted headlines.
Sturgeon's best hope of forcing Boris Johnson to agree
to granting Indyref 2 lies in the next Scottish parliament election in May
2021.
One upside
for Sturgeon is her under par opposition. The Scottish Conservatives remain
without a leader, and the race to replace Ruth Davidson is likely to expose
fault lines, with the party north of the border less keen on Johnson's populist
brand.
Scottish
Labour — until recently the dominant force in the nation's politics — had
another hideous election in December, losing six seats and leaving a foothold
of just one MP. Over the festive break, a prominent member of the Scottish
parliament argued for a divorce from the U.K. party. Debate over whether the
Scottish party is merely a "branch office" with no real autonomy has
been rekindled, providing easy material for SNP speechwriters.
Still,
media reports on Thursday suggested a coming executive committee meeting will
see major policy changes discussed, including support for an Indyref 2 vote and
secession from the U.K. party.
With
Johnson's position cemented by his 80-seat majority, Sturgeon's best hope of
forcing him to agree to granting Indyref 2 lies in the next Scottish parliament
election in May 2021. A big majority for her party in that parliament would
bolster her democratic case for holding another vote on separation. That will
mean navigating a year of domestic traps for her government.
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