How Putin
plans to stay on
Proposed
changes to the Russian constitution pave the way for the president to remain in
power.
By ALEC
LUHN 1/15/20, 11:16 PM CET Updated 1/15/20, 11:29 PM CET
If one
thing was clear about the resignation of Russia's prime minister on Wednesday,
it was that a step had been taken toward President Vladimir Putin remaining in
power after his term ends in 2024.
When Putin
began his annual speech to the federal assembly at noon, no one could have
anticipated the string of bombshells that was to follow. After more than an
hour of talk about social problems like Russia's long-running population
decline, the president suddenly called for a raft of constitutional changes.
Parliament, not the president, should appoint the prime minister, he said, and
the status and role of the state council, a little-active advisory body, should
be enshrined in the constitution.
Appearing
with Putin and his ministers mere hours later, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev
then announced that he and his government would resign to “give the president
of our country the chance to make all decisions necessary” to institute the
constitutional changes. The ministers reportedly had no idea this was coming.
State
television was just as surprised as everyone else, simply playing Medvedev and
Putin's statement in full on the six o'clock news before quickly moving on to
easier topics like the additional benefits Putin had promised young families in
his speech.
By evening,
Putin had nominated as prime minister Mikhail Mishustin, the long-serving head
of the tax service who plays hockey with the president and his friends on
Putin's birthdays. While he's known as an effective bureaucrat, Mishustin is
far from a political heavyweight, and few would have picked him as the next
head of government.
Opposition
activists have recently managed to win seats on municipal organs including the
Moscow city council.
The word on
the lips of many pundits trying to understand what had just happened was
“transition.” Since the constitution currently bars Putin from running for
president again in 2024, it had been widely expected that he would eventually
move to some other post while keeping a tight grip on the reins of power. That
process has started.
“The
government is dumbfounded, it didn't expect this, and maybe Medvedev didn't
expect this either, so what can we say?” Gleb Pavlovsky, a former adviser in
the administrations of both Putin and Medvedev, told POLITICO. “Of course this
shows that the Kremlin is having thoughts about transition."
Weakened
presidency
The
proposed constitutional changes would weaken the presidency while giving
greater power and independence to the parliament and state council, both of
which have been seen even before now as possible landing spots for Putin. He
could head a revamped state council comprised of regional governors, most of
whom were appointed by Putin. Or else the Kremlin-loyal parties in parliament,
which is chaired by a former Putin aide, could name him prime minister.
“These two
options have opened up. There's a bigger corridor of possibility than there was
before,” said Oleg Ignatov, a political consultant who previously worked for
the ruling United Russia party. “Putin likes to create possibilities for
himself, he likes to open lots of doors within the system and leave the
decision until the very last minute. Now the system will be in a state of
expectation.”
Other
constitutional changes proposed by Putin in his speech seem designed to weaken
his opponents in anticipation of his move to another position, particularly his
call to “create effective cooperation between state and municipal organs.”
Opposition activists have recently managed to win seats on municipal bodies
including the Moscow city council.
He also
stipulated that Russian court decisions should take precedent over
international ones in an apparent snub of the European Court of Human Rights,
which often rules in favor of Kremlin critics. And the president will be
limited to two terms total, rather than two terms in a row as is the case now.
While Putin
called for the changes to be put to a popular vote, possibly during regional
elections in September, this will almost certainly be a formality. State
television will promote them relentlessly, and then officials will jump to implement
them.
The working
group announced to draft the constitutional amendments includes
parliamentarians and well-known cultural figures and athletes, all of them
supporters of Putin.
The new
social benefits promised by Putin in his speech and the appointment of a new
prime minister seemed geared toward shoring up popular support before any major
political moves. GDP is estimated to have grown by only 1 percent in 2019, and
disposable incomes have been falling. A recent hike in the pension age remains extremely
unpopular.
Putin's
approval ratings are around 60 percent, 20 points below what they were five
years ago.
Bye-bye
Medvedev
At the very
least, Medvedev's departure will be greeted warmly, as more than half of
Russians disapprove of his job performance. By getting rid of him, Putin can
argue that Russia's government is not stagnating along with its economy.
Although
Mishustin is not the candidate to institute major economic reforms, it's
expected he will carefully manage the country's finances and reduce waste. “His
ideology is total control,” Pavlovsky said.
But perhaps
his greatest quality is that he is not seen as a potential rival or successor
to Putin.
The other
constitutional changes will help eliminate any political obstructions to
Putin's switch to a different office, said Georgy Satarov, a former aide to
ex-President Boris Yeltsin and one of the authors of the current constitution.
He argued that Putin's immediate appointment of Medvedev to a new position on
the security council could allow him in the future to keep a close watch on
that body, which is comprised of the heads of Russia's military and security
agencies and headed by the president.
Analyst
Yevgeny Minchenko argued that the changes would create a more balanced
government. However, others doubt this.
Putin may
hold onto power, but the lack of political competition and new ideas calls into
doubt the long-term viability of his government, Pavlovsky said.
“I don't
see even the minimal contours of a working system,” he added. “These are all ornamental
changes that can work only as long as the existing regime is preserved. But a
transition should be prepared for a situation in which Putin leaves, and this
system should be stable in new conditions.”
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