sábado, 6 de abril de 2019

Germans up in arms over 'rent insanity' / Berlin's rental revolution: activists push for properties to be nationalised / Lisboa prolonga suspensão de novos alojamentos locais / FMI alerta para risco de queda abrupta dos preços das casas nos próximos três anos



Germans up in arms over 'rent insanity'
AFP
news@thelocal.de        
@thelocalgermany
6 April 2019
09:35 CEST+02:00
 
Germans up in arms over 'rent insanity'
Michaela Franz at her apartment in Berlin's Moabit district, where her banner reads "Rental cancellation for condominium. We stay." Photo: Tobias Schwarz/AFP
Michaela Franz initially thought she was spared sharp rent hikes when her new property owner scrapped plans to renovate the Berlin building she has lived in for a decade. In fact, something worse was brewing.

A few days later, she received a letter notifying her that her rental contract had been terminated and that she would have to move out by the end of May. For the 58-year-old, the landlord's intention was clear: kick out long-time tenants and build new luxury apartments that fetch higher rents.

Not only in Berlin, but across Germany, Franz's experience has been playing out.  And the wave of gentrification and rising rents is provoking rising anger and leading some to even ponder radical solutions like expropriating housing from institutional landlords.

Tens of thousands of people are poised to join marches against "rental insanity" (Mietwahnsinn) on Saturday in cities like Munich, Cologne and Frankfurt.

The problem is most acute in the capital, where rents have doubled over the past decade, as Germany's booming job market attracts an influx of workers, putting pressure on the housing market. Average rent prices in Berlin have pushed past 10 euros per square metre per month, according to a recent study by a real estate group CBRE Berlin and German mortgage bank Berlin Hyp AG.

As property prices in Berlin traditionally lag behind those of major European capitals like Paris and London, investors have also swooped in, betting that the real estate boom was only just starting.

'Class struggle'

But a popular backlash appears to be growing, and organisers of an initiative to requisition housing from real estate groups will on Saturday begin collecting signatures in their push for a referendum on the issue in Berlin.

The campaign's spokesman Rouzbeh Taheri said the movement had radicalised as government measures to cool the property market have failed to work.

"Many say this is a type of class struggle. Yes that's what it is. But we did not start it," Taheri said. "We're taking defensive measures against the class struggler from the top who has for years been fighting against tenants."

The "Expropriate Deutsche Wohnen & Co." initiative, named after the biggest private player in Berlin, targets companies with more than 3,000 apartments in their portfolios. Of an estimated two million rental apartments in Berlin, Deutsche Wohnen owns 111,500, followed by Vonovia with 44,000.

Taheri argues that cutting them down to size would strip them of the influence they wield in deciding market prices.

"It's about sending a signal on which direction the city wants to go. And a signal to speculators -- telling them that your capital is not safe in Berlin," said Taheri.

But critics question whether the private groups really wield that much influence. Calling the initiative "completely absurd", Harald Simons, an economist at Leipzig University, noted that 70 percent of rental apartments across Germany are owned by small landlords who each hold between two and 20 apartments.

Singling out the big groups would "mean that about five percent of Berlin tenants will suddenly not have to pay much while the rest would have to keep paying just as much," he said.

The extreme move could also scare off investors who want to move their businesses here and create new jobs, critics say.

Further, taxpayers face a huge bill -- Berlin authorities have estimated the cost at €36 billion ($40 billion).

"When people learn about how many billions this will cost, many would see this differently," Berlin Mayor Michael Mueller said.

Deutsche Wohnen boss Michael Zahn said the organisers of the initiative were taking a "very populist tone" and warned that the public was not being given the full picture.

Michaela Franz in her appartment iapartment Moabit district. Photo: Tobias Schwarz/AFP
Michaela Franz in her apartment. Photo: Tobias Schwarz/AFP

'Rent rebel choir'

Amid the heated debate, Franz, who suffers from depression and receives state aid, was digging her heels in. She has taken her case to the courts, arguing "hardship circumstances" under a social clause in rental laws that could halt evictions.

Across town in southeastern Berlin, Hans von Maydell was also gearing up for battle, as the building he has lived in for 45 years changed ownership for the first time early this year.

"The new owner ... buys and sells property with money from investors who want to make the highest profits possible," the 75-year-old said.

In a pre-emptive move, he and fellow residents have sought protection under Berlin's "Milieuschutz" rules aimed at halting gentrification. Tenants have even formed a "rental rebel" choir to belt out their protest against rising rents.

For von Maydell, a roof over one's head is as essential as drinking water and should not be "left to speculation and the free market".

"We are in favour of these things coming under communal control and managed for the well-being of the community, and not for the well-being of the few who want to get rich quickly and ruthlessly."

By AFP's Hui Min Neo and Thierry Tranchant


Berlin's rental revolution: activists push for properties to be nationalised
Cities
Support is growing for a referendum on whether to ban large landlords from the German capital and turn their property into social housing stock

Philip Oltermann
Philip Oltermann in Berlin
@philipoltermann
Thu 4 Apr 2019 06.00 BST Last modified on Thu 4 Apr 2019 17.55 BST

When Berliners take to the streets on Saturday to protest against rising rents, 77-year-old Barbara von Boroviczeny will be right at the front.

As crowds of marchers set out from Alexanderplatz, the activist will be using a van with a megaphone to encourage people to sign up to nothing less than a housing revolution: a vote on banning large landlords from operating in the city and expropriating their property into social housing stock.

The proposed referendum, which could take place as soon as the middle of 2020 if activists manage to gather 20,000 signatures within the next six months and a further 170,000 by February, would set a legal precedent in establishing housing as a human right, and affect real estate companies as far away as London.

If they make it to the referendum stage, campaigners can afford to dream about victory: according to a Forsa poll from February, 44% of Berliners think nationalising large landlords a sensible measure, while only 39% reject the idea. In Berlin’s press, the campaign, named Expropriate Deutsche Wohnen & Co after the city’s largest private landlord, has already caused a debate on whether socialism is returning to the former capital of East Germany.

 If you don’t dare, you're never going to achieve anything
Barbara von Boroviczeny
Von Boroviczeny herself is no nostalgic east Berliner harking back to the days of the GDR, hailing instead from Zehlendorf in the city’s affluent west. She is nonetheless fulsome in her enthusiasm for the radical demands of the referendum.

“I think this kind of provocative language is exactly the right way to go about it; we’ve got to stop being so stately,” she says of the petition’s call to “expropriate” housing stock owned by large private companies. In terms of rhetoric, she argues, activists were only drawing level with the tactics large property speculators had been using for years.

“If you don’t dare, then you are never going to achieve anything,” she says. Sporting a neat grey bob and a silk neckerchief at a meeting in Kreuzberg ahead of the demo, Von Boroviczeny does not so much stand out from the crowd as confirm a pattern: rising rents in the capital are not just putting the squeeze on students and young professionals but also the over-60s, who made up the largest part of the group gathered here.

The radicalisation of previously demure Berlin pensioners serves to explain the growing momentum behind the Expropriate Deutsche Wohnen & Co campaign. In 2005, the real estate conglomerate that had acquired the Bauhaus-designed estate on Argentinische Allee where the pensioner has lived since 1959 announced a 100 euro increase in her monthly rent, to pay for renovations most of the tenants felt were unnecessary.

 Demonstrators against rent increases in Berlin.

Incremental reforms of German tenancy law have enabled landlords to force through “energetic modernisations” of their properties and pass down up to 11% of their costs to the tenants. Critics allege that the law allows landlords to flush out old tenants and immediately put the flats on the market at a higher price without having made any significant improvements.

Since German law restricts the possibility of class action lawsuits, Von Boroviczeny and around 170 of her neighbours took their current landlord, Deutsche Wohnen, to court on an individual basis. “Like all good Germans, we dragged our case from one court to the next,” she says – with limited results.

Many tenants lost their cases, and neighbours had to organise fundraisers to help compensate for their losses. Von Boroviczeny now spends 60% of her pension on her rent.

She is not the only tenant to worry whether she will eventually be forced to move out of her home. Once a haven for artists and dropouts because of its exceptionally low rents, Berlin property prices rose by 20.5% in 2017, faster than any other city in the world.

The impact of the so-called rent brake, introduced in large cities like Berlin, Hamburg and Munich in 2015 to stop rents spiralling out of control, has been underwhelming, partly because it places the onus to calculate fair rental payments on the tenant, not the landlord.

But since the start of the Expropriate DW & Co campaign last year, Von Boroviczeny has regained hope that the frustrations of tenants across the city could be bundled into one movement.

 Land, natural resources and means of production may, for the purpose of nationalisation, be transferred to public ownership …
Germany's Basic Law

“Suddenly, things are moving,” she says. “All sorts of measures are being discussed that had been stashed away at the back of the drawer.”

The Social Democratic party (SPD), senior partner in Berlin’s current governing coalition and the main driver behind the privatisation of the capital’s housing stock in the late 90s and early 00s, has distanced itself from the campaign, although it has proposed freezing rents in the city for five years. The SPD’s youth branch, by contrast, has trumped the campaign’s demands and proposed expropriating any landlord with over 20 apartments.

In December last year the city senate tried to stop 316 apartments in three buildings on Karl-Marx-Allee, a grandiose Stalin-era boulevard in the east of the city, from acquisition by Deutsche Wohnen.

If tenants across Berlin are feeling emboldened by the new grassroots campaign, it is because they believe its most radical demand can be supported by Germany’s 1949 constitution, the Basic Law.

According to article 15 of the constitution, which was drawn up before the country had fully embraced the market economy, “land, natural resources and means of production may, for the purpose of nationalisation, be transferred to public ownership or other forms of public enterprise by a law that determines the nature and extent of compensation.”

In late 2017, the housing campaigner Rouzbeh Taheri discovered that while article 15 had never been put to use in the way proposed by the campaign, the Berlin senate itself has used the paragraph to threaten landlords with expropriation in order to make way for infrastructure projects, such as new motorways.

Taheri, now the campaign’s spokesperson, argues that court cases between Deutsche Wohnen, which owns over 100,000 apartments in the German capital, and tenants like Von Boroviczeny prove the company is currently abusing its economic power in the city, thus providing sufficient reason for triggering the previously overlooked legal paragraph.

His campaign’s specific proposal: landlords who own more than 3,000 apartments should be dispossessed and their property passed into the hands of a new public body responsible for social housing. By the campaigners’ calculation, such a move could free up around 200,000 apartments.

Deutsche Wohnen thinks the idea is legally unenforceable and would amount to “saying goodbye to the market economy”. But three legal surveys commissioned by the Berlin senate support the basic tenet of the campaigners’ approach, one even suggesting that “socialising large companies may be easier to justify than small companies”.

Nonetheless, several hurdles still need to be cleared before Berlin can proclaim itself Europe’s new champion of housing rights. Exactly how many landlords would be affected is unclear, and remains difficult to establish while privacy rights in Germany restrict centralised access to the land registry.

What is certain is that Berlin, once regarded as a “renters’ paradise”, has over the years come to attract an unusually high number of big property players when compared to other European capitals like London, where even the biggest residential landlord, Grainger, owns only around 1,500 units.

While the senate’s initial cost estimate claimed that 10 private companies owned more than 3,000 apartments each, a new study has dug up two more landlords – both of them with links to the UK.

According to claims on its own website, London-registered Pears Global Real Estate owns 6,200 residential units in Germany, “primarily located in Berlin”, while more than 4,000 apartments can be traced to a Jersey-registered real estate fund management company called Warwick Square Trust.

Further, some legal experts believe a successful referendum in favour of expropriating private landlords would mean large state-owned housing companies such as Degewo would also have to hand over their housing stock to the new social housing authority.

A referendum in favour of expropriation, they warn, could end up not only scaring away private companies like Deutsche Wohnen – which owns 6.8% of Berlin’s rental properties – but also discourage other landlords from building and managing property in the city.

The higher the number of apartments affected by the proposed cull, the higher the cost for the senate – which in turn is eventually likely to be passed down to Berlin’s citizens in taxes. According to the senate’s own estimate, expropriating around 240,000 apartments would require compensation payments of between €28.8bn (£25bn) and €36.6bn. The official Expropriate DW & Co campaign questions the authorities’ calculation, offering up a cost proposal of €18.1bn instead.

Increasingly relishing their taste for controversy, some Berlin tenants are happy ignore the warnings. Instead, they propose even more radical solutions. In a recent talk show on German television, one veteran housing activist suggested the senate should offer no more than €1 in compensation payments.

“€1 per flat?” the moderator asked. “No! €1 per company,”, the activist responded.

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Lisboa prolonga suspensão de novos alojamentos locais
Medida é transitória até que entre em vigor o novo regulamento para o alojamento local, que está em fase final de elaboração.

 João Pedro Pincha
João Pedro Pincha 6 de Abril de 2019, 8:15

A câmara de Lisboa vai prolongar por mais uns meses a suspensão de registo de novos estabelecimentos de alojamento local (AL). As zonas abrangidas são as mesmas que já tinham sido ‘fechadas’ em Novembro: Alfama, Mouraria, Castelo, Bairro Alto, Príncipe Real, Bica, Madragoa e parte da Graça.

Esta suspensão é uma medida transitória enquanto não entra em vigor o novo regulamento para o alojamento local, que está em fase final de elaboração. Esse documento deverá ver a luz do dia nas próximas semanas, mas será depois colocado em consulta pública e discutido tanto na câmara como na assembleia municipal, o que significa que ainda vai passar algum tempo até que esteja em vigor. Daí o prolongamento da suspensão, que a lei estabelece que possa ir até ao máximo de um ano.

As zonas vedadas a novos AL assim deverão continuar depois de o regulamento ser aprovado e até não é improvável que mais zonas sejam incluídas na proibição, uma vez que já em Novembro a câmara apontava áreas de risco, aquelas em que a percentagem de AL estava quase a ultrapassar 25% do total de fogos.

A intenção da autarquia lisboeta é forçar o mercado a olhar para lá do centro histórico, alargando a oferta nas freguesias mais periféricas, para onde o AL se tem estado a expandir, como revelou uma análise feita pelo PÚBLICO em Outubro do ano passado.

O alojamento local foi um dos temas em debate no Fórum de Autarcas para o Turismo Urbano Sustentável, que se realizou em Lisboa na sexta-feira, onde Fernando Medina se comprometeu a ter uma cidade “boa para os residentes e também para os visitantes”.


FMI alerta para risco de queda abrupta dos preços das casas nos próximos três anos
04 abr, 2019 - 18:28 • Henrique Cunha com redação

A sobrevalorização dos imóveis e o aumento excessivo dos créditos concedidos podem vir a prejudicar a banca e a economia mundial, alerta Fundo Monetário Internacional.

A rápida subida dos preços das casas nos últimos anos pode levar ao colapso dos mercados imobiliários e a uma descida abrupta dos preços, nos próximos três anos.

O alerta é do Fundo Monetário Internacional, no capítulo “Riscos negativos para os preços da habitação”, incluído no relatório semestral sobre a estabilidade financeira global, publicado esta quinta-feira.
A instituição liderada por Christine Lagarde avisa que a sobrevalorização dos imóveis e o aumento excessivo dos créditos concedidos podem vir a prejudicar a banca e, consequentemente, a economia mundial, como no passado, na crise financeira de 2008.

Para evitar este cenário, a instituição acredita que as políticas macroprudenciais e as políticas monetárias poderão ter um papel fundamental.

“Um aperto nas políticas macroprudenciais está associado a uma redução dos riscos negativos sobre os preços das casas", escreve a instituição, que sublinha que isto se aplica sobretudo a políticas destinadas a reforçar a resiliência dos mutuários (aqueles que pedem o empréstimo), nomeadamente através do aumento da taxa de esforço (rácio entre o montante da prestação mensal e o rendimento do cliente) e dos limites máximos do rácio entre o montante do empréstimo e o valor do imóvel dado como garantia.

Portugal não é referido neste relatório, mas as notícias sobre a rápida subida dos preços no setor são conhecidas.
No ano passado, o FMI já tinha alertado para o risco de sinais de desequilíbrios revelantes no setor imobiliário, em Portugal.

"Portugal não está à beira de uma bolha, mas de uma explosão"

A Associação Nacional das Empresas de Mediação Imobiliária não esconde a existência de alguns riscos no sector. Ouvido pela Renascença a partir do Brasil, onde se encontra a tentar encontrar investidores que apostem em habitação para a classe média, o seu presidente Luís Lima diz que esses riscos decorrem da escalada de preços das casas nos grandes centros urbanos.

Mais pessimista, o presidente da Associação Nacional de Proprietários afirma que se está a caminhar para um cenário insustentável.

"Portugal não está à beira de uma bolha. Portugal está à beira de uma explosão. E tal como estamos a pagar os prejuízos de operações que nunca deviam ter sido feitas pelos bancos, é evidente que na altura vamos ser convocados para pagar este tipo de prejuízos", considera António Frias Marques.

O representante dos proprietários diz que Portugal é um paraíso para especuladores e pede a criação de barreiras que possam enfrentar aquilo de chama de "grandes interesses internacionais".

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