terça-feira, 7 de janeiro de 2020

As crisis engulfs Middle East, EU is off the pace



European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen spent most of Monday in Bavaria at a political party conference of the Christian Social Union | Philipp Guelland/EPA

As crisis engulfs Middle East, EU is off the pace

Von der Leyen struggles with early test for ‘geopolitical Commission.’

By DAVID M. HERSZENHORN, RYM MOMTAZ AND JACOPO BARIGAZZI 1/6/20, 8:50 PM CET Updated 1/6/20, 10:51 PM CET

With the Middle East in meltdown and fears of "World War III" trending on social media, the leader of the EU's new "geopolitical Commission" was nowhere to be geo-located.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who aims to make the bloc a bigger player on the world stage, made her first public comments about the escalating hostilities between Iran and the United States on Monday evening — more than three days after an airstrike ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.

"Europe has a special responsibility here," von der Leyen said in the statement, posted on the Commission's website. "As tensions mount, Europe is talking to all those involved." She declared a need "to halt the cycle of violence," urged Iran to fully comply with the nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, and said she would convene a special meeting of the College of Commissioners on Wednesday to debrief on all of the diplomatic efforts.

But for some observers, it was far too late.

"Stop your holidays and start saying something!" one EU diplomat said earlier in the day, expressing bewilderment at the absence of any comments from the Commission president on Iran, as well as an announcement a week earlier by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan that he would send military forces to Libya.

Ursula von der Leyen's days of silence stood in sharp contrast to European Council President Charles Michel.

The Middle East crisis exploded little more than a month after the new Commission took office and with most EU institutions still shuttered for the New Year holiday. The sluggish response from the new EU executive was a stark reminder that it will have its work cut out to be taken seriously as a geopolitical player by major powers.

The drama exposed — once again — just how much of a bystander the EU remains when it comes to serious military conflicts, whether on the European Continent, as in eastern Ukraine, just across the Mediterranean, as with the unfolding proxy war in Libya, or in the wider neighborhood, as with the U.S. airstrike that killed Soleimani in Iraq.

And it highlighted the bloc's continuing struggle to speak with one voice when it comes to foreign policy — a long-standing, structural and historical challenge that von der Leyen and Josep Borrell, the bloc's foreign policy chief, had pledged to address.

Von der Leyen's days of silence stood in sharp contrast to European Council President Charles Michel, who issued a statement Friday within hours of the U.S. airstrike, as well as a post on Twitter, calling for an end to "the cycle of violence, provocations and retaliations."

And it left officials struggling to explain how the new "geopolitical" Commission, which took office on December 1, was any different from its predecessors, even as Borrell and his team were working in overdrive to keep track of the fast-moving events.

Borrell first issued a statement on Friday evening, as well as follow-up statements through the weekend. Aides to von der Leyen said he was the Commission's point person and that the president was in close consultation with him.

Invitation to Brussels
While EU leaders generally called for calm, and Borrell invited the Iranian foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, to visit Brussels for talks, there were notable differences in the reactions from major European capitals — none of which were sufficiently positive about the U.S. action as to win applause or gratitude in Washington.

The biggest European powers, Germany, France and the U.K. — all of which currently hold seats on the U.N. Security Council — found themselves forced to walk a diplomatic high wire: not condoning an assassination, but also not condemning the U.S., their still-crucial ally; and while trying to keep Washington on side, also not losing their opening to engage with Iran.

But each took a slightly different tack.

The U.K. foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, cited the "aggressive threat posed by the Iranian Quds force led by Qasem Soleimani." The German foreign minister, Heiko Maas, issued a statement that declared Iran responsible for the escalation in tensions that led to the attack on Soleimani but also criticized the missile strike ordered by Trump. "This action has not made it easier to reduce tensions," Maas said.

France's initial reaction focused on its two most important concerns in the region: preserving the ability of forces within the anti-ISIS coalition in Iraq to fulfill their mission, and trying to contain further Iranian violations of the nuclear deal.

"This is a U.S. decision. It is not a decision taken neither by the global coalition nor NATO" — Jens Stoltenberg, NATO secretary-general

At first, Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian avoided characterizing the U.S. attack, instead referring to the "latest developments in Iraq, namely the actions undertaken last night," in a press release after he spoke to U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo Friday.

By Sunday, the French position became more explicit. President Emmanuel Macron "underlined his full solidarity with our allies in the face of attacks over recent weeks against Coalition forces in Iraq," and "expressed his preoccupation concerning the destabilizing activities of the Quds Force under Qassem Soleimani's command, and reiterated the necessity for Iran to put an end to them now, and abstain from any military escalation that could further destabilize the region."

Much of the tougher European language on Iran came after Pompeo complained on Friday that "the Europeans haven't been as helpful as I wish that they could be."

This more assertive language was also largely reflected in a joint statement by France, Germany and the U.K. — who together comprise the "E3" guarantors of the Iran unclear deal. The only hint of any criticism of the U.S. in the E3 statement was a call "on all parties to exercise utmost restraint and responsibility."

Trump's best source of solidarity seemed to come from NATO headquarters, where Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Monday convened an emergency meeting of the North Atlantic Council. The U.S. ambassador to NATO, Kay Bailey Hutchison, was in the room, and officials from the State Department and the Pentagon were also piped in by videoconference from Washington.

"The U.S. provided the rationale behind the action against General Soleimani and we had several briefers from the United States from State and from Pentagon and they briefed and explained to other allies why they took this action," Stoltenberg told reporters after the meeting.

Stoltenberg repeated several times that all NATO allies had long voiced concern about Iran's hostile behavior, and that they remained supportive of the alliance's role in the international coalition against the Islamic State as well as the NATO mission in Iraq. Stoltenberg said allies were prepared to resume those efforts when circumstances permit.

Still, despite the show of solidarity, Stoltenberg declined to offer any opinion of the killing of Soleimani. "This is a U.S. decision," he said. "It is not a decision taken neither by the global coalition nor NATO. But all allies are concerned about Iran's destabilizing activities in the region."

Talking to Tehran
Back in the European Quarter of Brussels, the view of Trump's action was even more ambiguous.

Borrell, in his initial statement Friday and follow-up comments over the weekend, was extremely even-handed, expressing "concern" about the killing of Soleimani but not voicing any condemnation of Tehran or Washington. And while Borrell spoke by phone with Zarif on Saturday night and invited him to Brussels, a spokesman for the high representative said Monday he had no specific information about any similar conversation with Pompeo.

The spokesman, Peter Stano, in response to repeated questioning at a regular Commission news conference on Monday, said only that Borrell had spoken or would speak to all of the EU's partners in his effort to help de-escalate the tensions.

"There is a lot of activity, a lot of activity is going on in terms of finding ways how the EU can contribute towards de-escalation," Stano said. "What is very important is that the high representative is very much engaged in contacts with all the relevant partners to find a way how to contribute to the de-escalation."

Borrell described his call with Zarif in a letter sent to EU foreign ministers on Sunday and seen by POLITICO. One senior diplomat said he viewed that letter as an effort by Borrell to compensate for Michel — the new Council president who represents the leaders of the EU's member countries — having been the quickest EU official to react. The Council chief being first off the mark was “very unusual," the senior diplomat said.

“Europe is not used to U.S. aggressive unilateralism" — EU diplomat

Another diplomat said Trump's actions had left officials deeply unsettled.

“Europe is not used to U.S. aggressive unilateralism," the diplomat said.

"We don’t really know what to do," said the diplomat who had wondered why von der Leyen did not speak out over the holidays. This diplomat noted with alarm that the U.K. and Baltic countries had expressed a level of support for the U.S. that was clearly not shared by other EU member countries, and said those concerns were only heightened by the "deafening silence of von der Leyen."

The diplomat complained that von der Leyen is talking about tackling climate change while the EU lets its neighborhood fall "into the hands of Turkey and Russia and we risk an escalation in the Middle East."

At the Commission's Monday news conference, von der Leyen's spokesman, Eric Mamer, responded to a question about the president's own engagement by saying she had been in close contact with Borrell, head of the EU's External Action Service, and would issue a statement later in the day.

Von der Leyen spent most of Monday in Bavaria at a political party conference of the Christian Social Union, the sister party of her own political party, the Christian Democratic Union.

Her statement was finally posted on the Commission's website late Monday afternoon.

A senior EU diplomat said the latest Middle East crisis had highlighted a lack of inter-institutional coordination in Brussels: "We need first of all to put some order at home in the relationship between the Commission, the Council and the External Service."

The EU was also struggling to salvage credibility on the Iran nuclear deal.

No sooner had Borrell issued a statement trying to emphasize the EU's one concrete role, as coordinator of the effort to preserve the pact, than Iranian leaders declared their latest step, backing away from their obligations under the deal — further deepening doubts that the accord, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA, could ever be saved.

Privately, officials said that von der Leyen's initial silence had caught other EU leaders off-guard, and her repeated insistence that she is at the helm of a geopolitical Commission had left Borrell and others concerned about not getting out in front of their boss.

As a result, the Commission seemed slow to react to aspects of the conflict other than those related directly to the nuclear deal — including threats of military retaliation by Iran's leaders, and Trump's threat to bomb Iranian cultural sites, which was immediately denounced by Zarif and others as a threat to commit war crimes.

London appeared to warn Trump against taking such a drastic step. “There are international conventions in place that prevent the destruction of cultural heritage,” a spokesman for Prime Minister Boris Johnson said Monday.

Still, even as European allies seemed to keep some distance from Trump, there were indications that some in Iran still viewed the West, collectively, as an enemy.

As hundreds of thousands of people poured onto the streets for Soleimani’s funeral on Monday, some carried signs that showed pictures of Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel in the crosshairs of a weapon, alongside similar pictures of Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Annabelle Dickson in London contributed reporting.

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