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The Guardian view on the French
election: Good luck, Mr Macron. You will need it
Editorial
French voters have averted the
catastrophe of a Marine Le Pen presidency. The task for Emmanuel Macron is to
deliver change, prosperity, unity and healing
Sunday 7 May 2017 20.08 BST
Any other result would have been a European catastrophe and,
for once, thank goodness, the opinion polls got it right. Emmanuel Macron has
swept Marine Le Pen aside to become France’s next president. Mr Macron won by
an even wider margin than the polls have consistently implied: 65.1% to 35.9%.
It is the decisive majority against Ms Le Pen’s far-right racist challenge that
France needed, and one of the biggest presidential wins in the history of the
Fifth Republic, eclipsed only by Jacques Chirac’s victory over her father in
2002. It is also a decisive setback for what has sometimes been depicted as a
rightwing populist tide threatening governments across the developed world in
the wake of Brexit and Donald Trump’s election. The people of France have
inflicted a major reverse on demagogic nationalism. Their country is safer for
it. So is ours. So is Europe. We salute them for it. We wish Mr Macron every
success.
But his victory is more a cause for relief than celebration.
The new president has been audacious in his centrist campaign based on a new
movement, En Marche!. He has also been incredibly lucky in his rivals. Until
this second round, he spoke for a quarter of his compatriots at best. At
various stages, François Hollande, Manuel Valls, Nicolas Sarkozy, Alain Juppé,
François Bayrou, Benoît Hamon, François Fillon, Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Ms Le
Pen all threatened. Yet, one by one, the contenders knocked themselves out. He
has a huge task of consolidation, particularly given that more than a third of
French voters supported a far-right, anti-European, anti-immigrant and racist
party leader, right up to the end. There is nothing to salute there.
Almost unknown to the French public until three years ago,
the former banker and – only in France – former assistant to a philosopher,
portrayed himself as an outsider, not entirely convincingly. Though relatively
new to politics, he is a graduate of the elite’s hothouse, the École Nationale
d’Administration, a Rothschild alumnus and a former minister. Many, notably on
the left, proclaimed themselves “ni patrie, ni patron” – not for Ms Le Pen and
nationalism, nor Mr Macron and “the boss”. He did well to counter this with a
positive message of hope and reform, of liberal values allied to social
justice, and of competence – but the abstention rate was the highest since
1969, at around 25%.
It is a reminder that handling the fallout from the
eve-of-poll hacking of his emails is one of his easier tasks. He must
demonstrate that his tough liberalism can be an effective sell in parliamentary
elections. Then he must prove that his “neither left nor right” stance can
offer the balm, growth and reform that France craves in the face of high
unemployment, fear of terrorism, social and racial antagonism and European
Union ineffectiveness. In victory, he said he wanted France’s new chapter to be
one “of hope, and confidence rediscovered”. But these are huge tasks, in exceptionally
uncertain terrain.
He has five weeks before the first round of elections that
may make him the presidential prisoner of a hostile National Assembly in a
“cohabitation” France can ill afford. Under the Fifth Republic it has had
little experience of coalition government, and the party system, with the
exception of the extreme-right Front National, is in disarray. The far-left
will need to be won round by social programmes dependent on economic growth
that eluded Mr Hollande. Each time Mr Macron falters, he may increase the
chances of a rematch with Ms Le Pen in 2022. She has already pledged “a
profound transformation” of her party to create “a new political force”.
The EU would have struggled to survive under Ms Le Pen –
hence the unconcealed relief of Angela Merkel and Donald Tusk. Mr Macron is
pro-European, but also pro-reform. He wants a eurozone budget and tighter
fiscal cooperation, supports common defence plans, and wants to expand
cross-border professional opportunities. He needs to engage, fast, with Mrs
Merkel and other allies, not least to shift the priorities of German eurozone
policies. There is absolutely no reason Britain, even amid Brexit, should not
want Mr Macron to be a success in all this.
In the end, his challenge is to translate campaigning into
governing and slogans into actions. He leads a nation in trouble, whose public
is often more anxious and angry than confident and trustful. He must make
innovative centrist government work on a continent where many have despaired of
it. His own future depends on him living up to his promises. Many others, here
as in France itself, have an equal stake in his success.
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OPINIÃO
Vitória importante, com resultados
preocupantes
Quatro pontos importantes a destacar
sobre os resultados agora projetados
DIOGO QUEIROZ DE ANDRADE
7 de Maio de 2017, 19:36
A primeira nota é que provavelmente o debate de quarta-feira
terá sido determinante. Emmanuel Macron demonstrou garra e coragem, que eram
aspetos que lhe eram criticados. Com isso terá conquistado alguns indecisos e,
acima de tudo, terá afastado de Le Pen alguns dos que ponderavam votar nela –
isto porque a candidata da Frente Nacional foi incapaz de defender as suas
ideias de forma consistente e, pior, revelou ignorância sobre vários aspetos do
sistema político.
A segunda nota é que ainda há perto de 12 milhões de
desencantados com o regime francês. Estes são os desencantados da globalização,
são os que ficam nas margens dos benefícios e são esses que têm de ser
integrados no sistema para não voltarem a ceder aos populismos. São os
eleitores que Macron terá de conquistar. É que a vitória era, de certa maneira,
a parte mais fácil. O que interessa agora é aplicar o seu programa eleitoral e
integrar os desiludidos do sistema.
A terceira nota tem precisamente a ver com essa conquista e
a aplicação do programa eleitoral com que foi eleito. Há eleições legislativas
daqui a seis semanas e Emmanuel Macron tem de promover o seu novo movimento de
forma a conseguir uma maioria que apoie o seu programa. Se ficar refém de
coligações fracas negociadas entre vários partidos, arrisca-se a ter um mandato
tão mau como o de Hollande.
A quarta nota tem a ver com a necessidade de interromper
este ciclo de subida do extremismo populista. É que esta é uma vitória
importante dos defensores da democracia liberal, mas é também um caso sério de
normalização da direita populista na Europa. A Frente Nacional duplicou
praticamente a votação das eleições presidenciais de 2002, ainda com Jean Marie
Le Pen, pelo que importa impedir novo crescimento nas próximas eleições.
The only way he can convince skeptics and opponents
will be to get results fast. He can buy time by quickly sending the political
signals that he will change old-style French politics — bringing in new faces
both in parliament and government, as well as reforms to democratize the
political process and make it more transparent. Europe’s current economic
recovery will give him some breathing room too. But the biggest challenge of
his presidency will be how he overcomes the tension that his change agenda
creates in a troubled country: How to be both a reformer and a
healer?
5 takeaways from Emmanuel Macron’s
win in France
What the centrist’s victory in the
presidential vote means for France, Europe and the world.
By PIERRE
BRIANÇON 5/8/17, 1:19 AM CET
PARIS — Emmanuel Macron, the not-yet-40 former economy
minister and banker, carried the French presidential election on Sunday,
beating Marine Le Pen by a wider-than-expected margin of 66 to 34.
Macron struck a solemn tone, saying he wouldn’t ignore the
mixed message from Sunday. Turnout was the lowest for a presidential vote since
the 1969 election. Millions spoiled their ballots, unable to support either
candidate. Yet Macron was also resolute, reiterating his commitment to
“defending Europe” and saying he “wouldn’t be stopped by any obstacle” to his plan
to reform France.
This French election, more than any in recent memory,
resonated throughout Europe and across the Atlantic. In the wake of Brexit and
Donald Trump’s unexpected victory last year, it offered a stark choice between
a liberal, establishment vision for France and Europe personified by Macron and
a nationalist, protectionist one offered by Le Pen.
Here are five takeaways from the young French politician’s
victory:
1. European, ‘globalist’ France wins
The rise of Le Pen’s National Front and France’s persistent
economic and industrial problems made this campaign a referendum on Europe and
globalization. Macron repeated that the big divide was between those who see an
open economy as an opportunity and those who, like Le Pen, seem to fear the
challenges it offers. For months he was the only candidate who got cheers for
Europe at his rallies, insisting it was the “solution” to France’s and others’
problems, not the problem itself.
Even though many of the left-wing voters who went for him in
the runoff did so mostly to keep Le Pen out of the Elysée palace, the magnitude
of his victory showed that Europe, the euro single currency and a liberal
economy (in short globalization) are — contrary to stereotype — electoral
winners, even or especially in France. Even Le Pen, who had long called for
France to drop the euro and possibly leave the EU, changed her position on the
single currency in the last days of the campaign to allay voters fears.
The European leaders and Commissioners who cheered for
Macron will have a cooperative partner in Paris, but he will be a French president
first. Although a die-hard Europhile, he
has also said that Europe should “protect” its citizens more. His priority in
Europe is to restore the sputtering Franco-German engine of the EU project,
which may worry more than a few other countries in the bloc. To make the
relationship with Berlin work better, he wants to prove to the Germans that he
can do what his predecessors have failed to do: reform the French economy.
2. Transatlantic ‘continuity’
Le Pen comes from a long family tradition of warm relations
with Moscow and hostility to the alliance with America. Of all the leading
contenders in France, Macron pushed the hardest line on Russia — and this
weekend’s massive hack of his campaign email suggests that Moscow had
identified him as a threat.
With his overall approach to foreign policy, including
France’s reengagement with the U.S.-led NATO alliance initiated in 2009, Macron
represents continuity with the past decade (and with his two predecessors). He
signals a pragmatism on relations with Washington and a defense of French
interests everywhere, even if he would prefer to do so from within the EU and
in consultation with Germany. He says he won’t support any lifting of sanctions
against Russia without signs of progress toward resolving the ongoing conflict
in Ukraine.
In other times, the election of a French leader who’s
strongly committed to NATO and hawkish on Russia would be seen favorably in
Washington. But these are unusual times, and the relationship with President
Donald Trump is impossible to predict.
As all other candidates in this election, Macron has called
Trump a new source of “uncertainty” for Europe. He didn’t refer to him as a
“threat,” as the conservative candidate François Fillon did.
Across the ocean, Trump had praised Le Pen in a tweet ahead
of the first round but soon after the Macron landslide was official, he tweeted
his congratulations, saying “I look very much forward to working with him!”
3. Setback for far right, but populism alive and well
Marine Le Pen’s defeat is real but her National Front party
has made major gains since the 2012 presidential election when she received 18
percent of the vote in the first round. As the party goes through
soul-searching, as she announced in her concession speech Sunday night, even
mulling a change of name, her setback may be only temporary. She received more
than 10 million votes on Sunday, after many voters who had chosen the
mainstream conservative Fillon or even far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon
switched to her.
The French have shown once again, as they have done
repeatedly in previous elections, that they don’t want Le Pen and her party in
power. That’s why they fail as soon as they get close to grabbing a big prize.
It happened in the 2015 regional elections when the National Front couldn’t win
control of the two regions it supposedly dominates in the north and south of
France.
But populism is not only a right-wing movement and the
divide, as described by Macron, over whether economies should be open or closed
is one that runs through the Left as well. The surge of Mélenchon in the first
round showed that Macron’s ideas aren’t shared by many of those who voted for
him Sunday.
How he deals with the anger and the frustrations of voters
who feel they are paying too high a price for globalization will determine
Macron’s capacity to govern and reform effectively, even if he gets a majority
in parliament in six weeks’ time.
4. En Marche toward the third round — the parliamentary
elections
Macron’s energies will now focus on getting an absolute
majority in parliament in another two-round election on June 11 and 18. His En
Marche (“On the move”) movement didn’t exist a year ago, and it is
underfinanced. It hopes to profit from Sunday’s momentum, but may need help to
get there.
Even though he wants half his future MPs to be newcomers to
politics, Macron clearly hopes to benefit from the support of seasoned
politicians either from the Socialist Party or from the conservative
Républicains. Some have already expressed interest, especially since he is no
longer asking them to quit their own party to join En Marche. But as an
organization, the Républicains are gearing up to try to clinch the majority for
themselves — and then force their own prime minister on Macron, who would then
be reduced to a figurehead.
Le Pen said Sunday night that she would try to lead the
opposition to Macron, but she is unlikely to get many MPs given the realities
of France’s two-round electoral system. As for the Socialist party, it faces a
trouncing in June after a disaster two weeks ago in the first round; its
presidential candidate Benoît Hamon got just a little more than six percent of
the vote. That means that its few MPs will likely decide for themselves whether
they support Macron or not.
Macron’s aides say that En Marche candidates will defend his
presidential program in the campaign to come, but it will be interesting to
watch what lessons the new president will draw from his paradoxical victory —
both large and ambiguous. Macron benefitted by running as an independent.
Nuances may now be brought to the platform, depending on whether he thinks he
needs the left-wing or the right-wing voters.
5. Reformer or healer?
It has almost become a cliché to note that Macron inherits a
divided country — as illustrated by the big divisions between urban and
small-town France, between the north-east leaning toward Le Pen and the
south-west toward Macron, between the educated and the non-educated, between
the quartiers chics and the derelict banlieues.
But the real question is whether Macron can deal with
France’s long-term economic and social woes by implementing his reform “without
waiting and without hesitating,” as he has said. If he wants to avoid the
paralyzing opposition of organized labor, street demonstrations and even
strikes that have crippled previous reform attempts, he will have a lot of
convincing to do.
He said Sunday night in a late speech to sympathizers in
front of the Louvre Palace that “a majority for change” had elected him
president. But “it won’t be easy every day,” he said. It was the understatement
of the evening.
Macron e as coabitações
A Europa celebra, e com razão, a
vitória de Emmanuel Macron
MARINA COSTA LOBO
7 de Maio de 2017, 22:36
Ao derrotar Marine Le Pen, os franceses deram uma enorme
lição de cidadania ao mundo, ao erguer, mais uma vez um forte “cordon
sanitaire” para impedir a chegada da extrema-direita francesa ao poder. Com 74%
de participação eleitoral, estão por isso de parabéns todos os que votaram
Macron, para que este conseguisse aumentar a sua margem de vitória de 24% dos
votos na primeira volta para 65% na segunda.
Agora, para governar eficazmente, mais do que representar
uma escolha negativa, (o mal menor) Macron terá o grande desafio que é o de
conseguir unir as forças políticas que o apoiaram a favor de um projecto de
reformas tanto a nível interno como da União Europeia. O voto de ontem em
Macron juntou apoiantes de Hamon, Fillon e Mélenchon na primeira volta, que
tapando o nariz, votaram no candidato independente.
A polarização demonstrada entre candidatos na primeira volta
das presidenciais mostra o grau de dificuldade que significa conseguir integrar
estas forças políticas numa coligação propositiva. Em que medida é que as
instituições francesas, e em particular o sistema político semi-presidencial
francês vai agora ajudar a esta consolidação do poder de Macron? Há sinais
preocupantes, seja por razões da dinâmica do sistema político, seja por razões
de desgaste institucional. Recordemos que Hollande também foi eleito com o
mandato de reformar a Europa contra o austeritarismo de Merkel-Schauble, e
acabou perfeitamente sozinho com 4% de popularidade e sem reformas Europeias à
vista. Para lá dos tiros nos pés do infeliz Hollande, existem, parece-me,
algumas razões estruturais que condicionam o Presidente francês hoje e que
temos de ter em conta.
Do ponto de vista da dinâmica do sistema político, o
principal problema é que o Presidente é tão forte quanto o apoio que tiver no
Parlamento.
Senão vejamos: a V República, criada no seu formato actual
em 1958 pelo General de Gaulle, foi durante décadas apontada como um exemplo do
sucesso da engenharia institucional na Europa. Isto é, da capacidade de
desenhar um sistema político que permitisse garantir a estabilidade governativa
e ao mesmo tempo a representatividade de todos franceses – num país que era
visto quase como ingovernável. A ingovernabilidade fica demonstrada com o
número de executivos que houve na IV República (1946-58), a saber: 21 governos
em 12 anos. Foi de Gaulle que redesenhou o sistema político, por forma a criar
um sistema político de liderança executiva bicéfala, onde um Presidente e um
Primeiro-Ministro partilhavam poderes executivos, e eleições legislativas. O
sistema ficou tal como ele e hoje quando, a partir de 1962, se estabeleceu a
eleição directa do Presidente da República.
De 1958 a 1986, todos os presidentes franceses dominaram o
jogo político, pois conseguiram sempre maiorias absolutas na Assembleia
Nacional. Isso terminou com o primeiro período de coabitação entre o Presidente
Mitterrand, que perdeu a sua maioria absoluta no Parlamento, para a direita.
Com a coabitação, Chirac enquanto Primeiro-Ministro tornou-se no verdadeiro
chefe do executivo, tendo o Presidente assumido um papel consideravelmente
menor no processo político, tendo até deixado de presidir ao Conselhos de
Ministros. A coabitação veio demonstrar que o poder do Presidente francês, mais
do que dos poderes que a Constituição lhe dava, dependia essencialmente da
força que tinha o seu partido no Parlamento. É aqui que se torna evidente a
importância do que se vai jogar agora no mês que falta para as eleições
legislativas que vão selar a eficácia de Macron nos próximos tempos, pelo menos
a nível interno. Sem maioria na Assembleia Nacional, Macron fica condenado a
coligações de opostos ou mesmo à coabitação.
Do ponto de vista do desgaste institucional, também existem
alguns sinais do enfraquecimento do papel do Presidente. Em 2012, Nicolas
Sarkozy foi o primeiro Presidente em funções a não conseguir garantir a
re-eleição, tendo sido derrotado por François Hollande na segunda volta das
eleições. Já em meados de 2016, com 4% de popularidade nas sondagens, Hollande
decidiu que nem valia a pena ir a votos. Portanto, por diferentes razões, os
dois últimos presidentes apenas cumpriram um mandato, sendo os únicos a fazê-lo
na já considerável história da V República francesa, com excepção de Giscard
d’Estaing (1974-1981). Além disso, ontem, Macron foi eleito com o nível de
participação eleitoral mais baixo desde 1969. O sentimento de “déclin
existentiel” que existe em França está, por sua vez, intimamente ligado às
percepções que se têm sobre a capacidade do Presidente francês influenciar ou
não o processo de integração europeia. Para além da coabitação parlamentar que
por vezes diminui o Presidente francês, a “coabitação” europeia tem vindo, nas
ultimas décadas, a contribuir para uma desafeição em relação às instituições e
ao Presidente.
Hoje é dia de celebração, pois, mais uma vez, a
extrema-direita foi derrotada numa eleição. Mas o próximo mês vai ser decisivo para
se perceber se esta vitória se consegue realmente transformar num verdadeiro
projecto político.
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