Theresa
May’s foreign policy? ‘Absolutely no idea’
UK
prime minister’s silence casts doubt on Britain’s global
influence ahead of G20.
By
Tom McTague
9/2/16, 5:27 AM CET
LONDON — Theresa
May’s sure-footed start to foreign relations has impressed world
leaders. Diplomats in Paris and Berlin speak of a “serious” and
“astute” politician that they can deal with.
But back at home a
quiet unease is emerging.
As she heads to her
first international summit as prime minister, at the G20 in China
this weekend, May’s foreign policy remains unknown, even to senior
members of her government.
“There are lots of
questions but very few answers,” one senior Tory said. Others are
less circumspect. Asked about her world view, a long-term former
cabinet colleague replied: “Absolutely no idea.”
May’s foreign
policy silence is causing murmurings of disquiet. Privately,
ministers voice unease about the influence of her advisers,
particularly chief of staff Nick Timothy.
As one senior
Conservative source put it: “She should not just look for solutions
from those who sit closest to her desk.”
Another
well-connected Tory said: “I’ve literally no idea on foreign
policy. It’s very difficult to say who she’s close to or what she
thinks. Most stuff seems fairly traceable to Nick [Timothy].”
May’s early
suspicions about China have raised eyebrows in Westminster and
abroad; she is defiantly lukewarm toward Europe and notably
unattached to the U.S. On Russia, Ukraine and the Middle East, May’s
position is unknown.
The assumption
in Berlin is that the U.K. will continue to lose international
influence.
Foreign leaders are
not overly concerned. In European capitals Britain’s international
retreat is considered “a given,” according to a number of
well-connected diplomatic sources.
One source close to
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the U.K.’s foreign policy now
amounted solely to Brexit. The assumption in Berlin is that the U.K.
will continue to lose international influence, with its nuclear
arsenal and United Nations Security Council seat its “last vestiges
of power.”
Those close to the
German chancellor see the appointment of Boris Johnson as foreign
secretary as evidence May doesn’t really care much about foreign
policy. French anger over Johnson’s promotion was acute, but there
is now a feeling in Paris that he has been silenced.
Jonathan Eyal,
assistant director at the respected foreign affairs think tank RUSI,
said European concerns about the Brexit triumvirate of Johnson, David
Davis and Liam Fox were serious and damaging.
“There is now a
rather dangerous myth in Europe that if they need a serious decision,
they have to talk to her [May] and not to her ministers. All of her
ministers are deemed to be lightweight.”
A step up from
Cameron
Eyal said that May
had impressed in her early visits to Berlin and Paris. “They were
struck by how serious she is.” The contrast with David Cameron, who
often tried to “wing it,” has been noted.
“She is
meticulous. When she has meetings with foreign leaders she is well
prepared,” Eyal said. “In Paris they expected a very tense
meeting, but it was all very low key, she kept her voice down. That
is a very important departure from the previous prime minister. But
this is all the calm before the storm. In Europe she still
constitutes a leader on borrowed time.”
A senior source in
Berlin said it “goes without saying” that because of her cabinet
appointments May is considered the only one “worth dealing with.”
Merkel believes the
British prime minister will be too busy dealing with Brexit to devote
much time to other issues. The German chancellor is, however, very
keen to preserve a good relationship with the U.K., especially on
trade. The initial impression in Berlin is that May is someone they
can negotiate with in a fairly sober manner.
Berlin also believes
Britain’s retrenchment was already underway before May took over.
In particular on Russia and the Ukraine, London was seen as
“invisible.”
French diplomats
harbor deeply-held historical concerns that the U.K will return to
“the centuries-old Foreign Office game of dividing Europeans.”
Cynics in Paris, though, accept Britain has never really stopped
playing that game, even in the EU.
French fears
There is a more
serious concern in Paris about British military retreat — in
particular, May’s willingness to engage forces abroad.
A close study of
May’s record suggests the French are right to be concerned.
It may not be all
smiles in Paris when it comes to May's views on the Arab sping | Ian
Langsdon/EPA
In the only notable
foreign policy speech of her career, in 2011, May broke with the U.K.
government line to question the prospects of the Arab Spring.
As other ministers
hailed the “exciting” revolutions, May said: “Change for the
better is not inevitable … There is a chance that the Arab Spring
does not bloom; that new repressive regimes replace old ones; that
they give way to new and more dangerous regimes; or that terrorists
gain the space and power that they lacked under the autocratic
regimes of the past.”
The May
worldview: Cautious, pragmatic and skeptical about liberal
interventionism.
Timothy, her closest
adviser and chief of staff, hailed her “prescience” in a later
blog post as he laid out the most detailed account of his foreign
policy, attacking liberal interventionism. In it he said the “single,
overriding lesson from Iraq” was that the U.K. needed to
“rediscover the principles of a traditional, realist, conservative
foreign policy.”
He added: “Value
stability. Respect sovereignty. Do not make foreign policy part of an
ideological crusade. Do not try to recreate the world in your own
image. Do not, however much you might disapprove of a dictator’s
abuse of human rights, use that as a pretext for regime change.
Always act on the basis of the national interest. Above all,
understand the risk involved when things change in complex and
volatile states.”
In Timothy’s
writings and in May’s cautious, pragmatic record in government the
bones of her foreign policy can be seen.
A Number 10 source
said May was, at heart, “a pragmatist.” “She does what is in
the national interest.” May will not be making any Cameron-style
comments about Donald Trump, the source added.
Worried world
Foreign Affairs
Select Committee chairman Crispin Blunt said May had a “toughness”
Cameron did not have when it came to resisting the “emotional pull”
of foreign interventions. But he added that she would still “go on
the same journey every a prime minister does” eventually being
“sucked into international affairs.”
Blunt also insisted
Europe had it wrong if they thought Brexit constituted a retreat.
“For the next two or three years we re-establish our role in the
world. The three Brexit ministers have a clear understanding this is
history, I know. They have got these jobs at a very profound moment
and have to make it work. This is not politics as usual over the next
two and a half years.
“The triumvirate
working for Theresa is about as good a core team to do Brexit as is
available in U.K. politics. I accept that’s not how they are seen,
but that’s how they are.”
Blunt admitted,
however, that he was “very worried” about the capacity of the
Foreign Office to cope with its new responsibilities. “We’ve got
to raise our diplomatic game. The world is looking at us.”
May now has a job
convincing the world — and her domestic critics — that Britain
has not given up.
Pierre Briançon and
Nicholas Vinocur in Paris and Matthew Karnitschnig in Berlin
contributed to this article.
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