5
takeaways from Britain’s Labour election
In
a political landscape, changed by Brexit, the party is right back
where it started in September 2015.
By
Charlie Cooper and
Alex Spence
9/24/16, 1:13 PM CET
The members have
spoken. And Jeremy Corbyn is back by a landslide.
As expected, the
67-year-old die-hard of the old Labour left increased the size of his
mandate to lead Britain’s opposition party after seeing off a
faltering challenge from the relatively unknown Owen Smith.
Asked to choose
again, when Labour MPs decided they had no choice but to unseat a
divisive leader, the party’s rank-and-file — swollen by a new
breed of youthful, idealistic, social media-savvy activists –
rejected Smith’s tepid “Corbyn-lite” offer by 61.8 percent to
38.2 percent.
And so, after one of
the most traumatic years in its history, Labour finds itself right
back where it started in September 2015: Corbyn as leader, with the
overwhelming backing of the party members, but opposed by a majority
of his MPs in Parliament
In a political
landscape reshaped by Brexit, the path Labour now takes will depend
on how the leader, his team, and the other MPs react in the coming
days and weeks. Here are five takeaways from Corbyn’s victory:
No party split —
for now
Corbyn’s
acceptance speech struck an emollient tone: he spoke all wings of the
party being part of the same “Labour family” which, he said, had
“much more in common” than what divided it. And it seems clear
that the family doesn’t look like breaking up quite yet.
Labour MPs, even
those most ardently opposed to Corbyn’s leadership, say that they
will not leave and cleave the party in two, despite Smith’s dire
warnings of such an act during the leadership campaign.
“In the hours and
days after this we’re going to get across the strong message that
we won’t split and people shouldn’t leave the Labour party,”
said one MP and outspoken Corbyn critic. “We’re trying to strike
a hard balance between on the one hand not continuing the
blood-letting and civil war, because we need there to be a
functioning opposition, and on the other hand reassuring sensible
people in the party that there’s still a sensible wing there that’s
worth fighting for. But there’s absolutely no-one that’s talking
about leaving the party.”
How long this mood
lasts depends on how Corbyn and those around him react to his
victory. If talk quickly turns to the re-selection of rebellious MPs,
then expect talk of splits to quickly return. Some senior MPs,
understood to include former foreign affairs spokesman Hilary Benn
and former health spokeswoman Heidi Alexander, are reportedly
planning to “co-exist” with the Corbyn leadership rather than
join it. The centrist Liberal Democrat party is also making very
public overtures to disillusioned Labour MPs. But for now the party
has an opportunity to try to heal its divisions.
Corbyn gets a second
chance
It’s often
forgotten, given what came later, but there was a short period
immediately after Corbyn won the leadership last year when it seemed
possible that he might be able to lead a broad church Labour party in
Parliament. But any hopes of a conciliatory approach were dashed when
he quickly chose John McDonnell, a longstanding ally, rather than
someone more centrist, as his Shadow Chancellor.
Labour Shadow
Chancellor of the Exchequer John McDonnell | EPA/Hannah Mckay
Labour Shadow
Chancellor of the Exchequer John McDonnell | EPA/Hannah Mckay
McDonnell was, and
remains, highly divisive among MPs and his appointment set the tone
for a confrontational relationship between the leadership and the
parliamentary party. Most MPs accept that McDonnell isn’t going
anywhere now but there’s another area where Corbyn could reset the
tone of his relationship with MPs.
Deputy leader Tom
Watson is pushing for the party to re-establish rules abolished in
2011 whereby MPs would elect who could be appointed to the Shadow
Cabinet, rather than its members being appointed directly by the
leader.
That would, at
least, give the disgruntled MPs who voted no confidence in Corbyn a
say over the party’s direction. Many senior party figures who
opposed Corbyn are now willing to serve. Former Shadow Northern
Ireland Secretary Vernon Coaker is considering a return, while
respected figures Dan Jarvis and Keir Starmer are reportedly willing
to join if Corbyn and his team agree to the Shadow Cabinet election
proposals going through the party’s ruling National Executive
Committee. If he does and they do, it could herald a more
conciliatory era.
The opposition has a
chance to make a difference
With Britain facing
its biggest political crisis in a generation after the Brexit vote,
many of the party’s MPs have expressed dismay that their party has
been consumed by internal squabbles rather than taking on the Tories.
So few MPs were
willing to join the front bench that those left opposing the
Government have had to double up on important areas of policy. The
Shadow Brexit Secretary, Emily Thornberry is an experienced
parliamentary operator but has had to combine the brief with being
Shadow Foreign Secretary.
Meanwhile,
heavyweight policy areas such as defence and education are being
headed up by MPs who have been in Parliament for little more than a
year.
“However hard
these people try there is something to be said for experience and
having experienced people on the front bench,” said one MP.
Credible opposition spokespeople in key positions would get airtime
on news bulletins watched and listened to by the ordinary voters that
Labour has to reach out to, creating the air of a government in
waiting rather than a party content with opposition.
No second referendum
A Corbyn victory is
a blow to Labour supporters who still had hopes that Britain would
remain in the European Union, or at least seek a “soft” Brexit.
Smith called for a second referendum or a general election vote to
decide the terms of withdrawal — a clear break from the
Conservatives’ insistence that “Brexit means Brexit.” His
defeat is realistically the last nail in the coffin for the prospect
of a second vote.
Corbyn has remained
relatively silent on what kind of Brexit he wants to see, but his
spokesman indicated earlier this month that the party will not push
for full single market membership. That won’t please the Remainers.
On the other hand, Corbyn’s cool stance on Europe means he is
actually more in line with many of the working class voters Labour
needs to hold on to. A YouGov poll for The Times Friday indicated
that more than half of people who backed Labour at the 2015 General
Election and went on to back Brexit no longer support the party.
Smith would have
been unlikely to bring those people back.
Whether Corbyn can
do it depends not just on his position on Europe but how he
approaches immigration. Here he may end up being out of step with
senior party figures. Chuka Umunna and Rachel Reeves, party
heavyweights who are unlikely to serve in a Corbyn shadow cabinet,
have said ending freedom of movement should be a red line for the
Brexit negotiations. They’re conscious that the party needs to
convince working-class voters, particularly in its northern
heartlands, that Labour is serious about immigration, or else lose
them to UKIP.
Corbyn has in the
past championed the benefits of immigration and is known to be very
hesitant about any stance that appears to play into the hands of
anti-immigrant populists. He may resist taking the party to the right
on that issue.
A media reset
From the moment
Corbyn became a contender in the first leadership contest last year,
Corbyn has been routinely derided in Britain’s media — and the
feeling is more than mutual. Corbyn and his supporters evince a deep
mistrust of the so-called “mainstream media,” and not just
against the right-wing tabloids that, predictably, treat him as a
figure of ridicule. Their sense of grievance against the BBC is even
more acute. They believe that the impartial public broadcaster is
inherently biased against the left. Corbyn has stoked the antagonism
by routinely taking swipes at the media on the stump. In the era of
Facebook, he insists, a grassroots social media campaign is all he
needs to broaden his popular appeal. Virtually all conventional media
and political analysts disagree.
Corbyn and the press
will never be natural bedfellows. He’ll never dine with the editors
of right-wing tabloids, never enjoy the day-to-day encounters with
political journalists. But there’ve been signs of attitudes in his
camp softening lately. Last week, he did his first interview of the
leadership campaign with the BBC Radio 4’s influential Today
program. In what felt like an olive branch, the BBC program agreed to
pre-record the interview and let Corbyn off with no hard questions.
In TV appearances
with Smith, Corbyn seemed less awkward and forced than previously.
His team is producing slick new posters depicting the leader in a
warmer, more appealing, more reassuring light. And as POLITICO
reported this week, his divisive strategy and communications chief
Seumas Milne has held talks with the Guardian about returning to the
newspaper. (He was a columnist and assistant editor before taking a
year of unpaid leave to join Corbyn’s team.)
If Corbyn can put
the party divisions behind him and build bridges with at least some
in the media, it would improve his image. His acceptance speech on
Saturday was a start. He got through it without once complaining
about the dreaded “mainstream media.”
Authors:
Charlie Cooper and
Alex Spence
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