Down
and Out? How Merkel Could Win Re-Election Next Year
With
national elections just a year away, many have written Angela Merkel
off. Yet even as her party continues to suffer in state elections,
there are a host of reasons why the chancellor can hope for a fourth
term -- assuming she decides to run.
An Analysis by
Roland Nelles
September 19, 2016
Angela Merkel is
done. She has run out of luck, she is losing supporters in droves and
she is driving former conservatives into the arms of the right-wing
populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. More than that, her
refugee policies are threatening to break apart the decades-long
partnership between her Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Bavarian
Christian Social Union (CSU). In short, Germany's incumbent
chancellor doesn't stand a chance next year when the country goes to
the polls for the 2017 parliamentary elections.
Such has been the
narrative in recent months and it is being repeated once again in the
wake of Berlin city-state elections on Sunday, a vote that handed the
CDU yet another apparently crushing defeat. Indeed, the party managed
a paltry 17.6 percent of the vote, its worst post-reunification
result ever in the German capital. Commentators, both domestic and
foreign, have been rushing to chalk up the outcome as yet another
referendum on Merkel's performance in last year's refugee crisis.
Apparent proof of that interpretation is the 14.2 percent vote total
received by the AfD. Coming on the heels of the AfD's dramatic
success in recent state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania,
where it ended up with 20.8 percent, the trend looks clear.
It would, of course,
be foolhardy to argue that all is well in Merkel's political
universe. But it would be equally hard to argue that Berlin elections
are an accurate litmus test for her potential success next year.
Indeed, all establishment parties did poorly on Sunday, with the
Social Democrats "winning" the election with just 21.6
percent, almost seven percentage points lower than the party's total
in the last election in 2011. In fact, it was the lowest ever total
for an election victor in a German state election. Support for the
Greens also dropped, while both the far-left Left Party and the AfD
booked significant gains. Much of that is a reflection of how
dissatisfied Berliners have been with the SPD-CDU coalition that has
held power in the city for the last five years.
A closer look at the
results in Berlin, in fact, may indicate that Merkel's chances aren't
too bad next year. Consider the following six reasons that she could
very well end up being elected for a fourth term in the Chancellery
next fall.
Why Merkel Could Win
1. Her support base
is surprisingly stable. Despite the brutal results in
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Sunday's ugly total in Berlin and
Merkel's ongoing slide in the public opinion polls, there isn't
really anybody who is threatening to overtake her. She is still eight
to 10 points ahead of the SPD, which would seem to indicate that a
sizable group of Merkel fans haven't turned their backs on the
beleaguered chancellor. There is (for now, at least) little
indication that they will abandon her in the next 12 months.
2. In direct
comparison with her likely challenger, SPD head Sigmar Gabriel,
surveys show that Merkel is far ahead. The Berlin election showed
once again that the SPD still hasn't figured out how to reverse years
of decline, even if it limped to a victory. And it is difficult to
imagine that Gabriel, after seven years as party head, will suddenly
figure out how to win over a significantly greater share of voters.
3. The SPD in Berlin
has indicated it will strive for a governing coalition with the
Greens and the Left Party. It is possible that in next year's
national campaign, the SPD will present the combination as a possible
model for the national government as well. But whereas Berlin voters
have welcomed Left Party participation in the government in the past,
the rest of the country is far more conservative -- and the prospect
of a left-wing government with Left Party participation will make it
much easier to mobilize conservative voters. Furthermore, the
prospect of such a coalition may also lead potential AfD voters to
think twice before abandoning the CDU.
4. Even as the chasm
between the Bavarian CSU and Merkel's CDU is deep -- a product of the
CSU's thorough rejection of Merkel's refugee policies -- it is
becoming increasingly apparent that the differences between the two
parties could harm them both in next year's election. With the
prospect of a left-wing coalition looming, the pressure is on Merkel
and CSU-leader Horst Seehofer to finally set aside their differences.
That would be a big boost to Merkel's re-election chances.
5. The refugee issue
is already losing some of its immediacy. While it would be premature
to argue that a lasting solution has been found, Merkel's refugee
deal with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan survived the
attempted coup in Turkey and should it continue to hold, the numbers
of refugees making it to Germany will continue to drop. Furthermore,
states and municipalities are doing a better job of finding permanent
housing for the refugees already in the country and German citizens
are no longer constantly confronted with the immigration "crisis."
That will take the wind out of the AfD's sails and take the pressure
off of Merkel.
6. Merkel has yet to
say for sure if she will run for a fourth term, and the longer she
delays, the less time her opponents within the CDU have to present an
alternative. With just a year to go before the general election, a
possible effort from within the party to push her out the door would
be extremely risky. Furthermore, it isn't clear who the alternative
might be. While jettisoning Merkel in favor of Finance Minister
Wolfgang Schäuble or CSU head Seehofer could convince a few AfD
voters to return to the CDU fold, it would almost certainly alienate
an even greater number of Merkel supporters. The CDU knows that and
will almost certainly come together to throw their support behind
Merkel.
Merkel has indicated
she will make her decision known by the end of the year. Should she
decide to try for re-election, though, betting against her would be
an extremely risky wager indeed.
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