Welcome
to EUgoslavia
The
new array of European Union subgroups is a sign of deeper malaise.
By
Matthew Karnitschnig
9/22/16, 5:31 AM CET
BERLIN —
Metternich, the godfather of pan-European statecraft, once famously
quipped that the Balkans started just beyond Vienna’s ramparts.
In the emerging EU
of 27, the Balkans are everywhere.
The European Union
could always be neatly divided into regional blocs that, for the most
part, pursued a common agenda, whether the northern group around
Germany or the southern “Club Med” countries led by France.
That changed
recently as the flurry of economic and political crises to befall the
EU spawned an alphabet soup of subgroups, with like-minded capitals
looking for strength in numbers.
Now, Brexit is
accelerating the trend as countries seek allies ahead of the coming
debates over the EU’s future.
This month, Athens
hosted the inaugural gathering of the “EUMed” (Greece, France,
Italy, Portugal, Spain, Cyprus and Malta), replete with a custom logo
and family photo. The group’s aim is to build a bulwark against the
Berlin-led alliance of penny pinchers they blame for the south’s
chronic economic stagnation.
Like a mutinous
army, member states simply ignore Brussels’ efforts to impose
discipline in areas such as refugee policy.
Central Europe,
meanwhile, has revived the long-dormant Visegrad group, banding
together to resist Brussels’ attempts to force them to accept
refugees. Austria, one of the countries most affected by the influx,
has created an alliance of its own. That group, consisting of
Germany, Greece and several candidate countries in the Balkans, is
set to meet in Vienna this weekend. They’ve selected the perfect
venue — Klemens von Metternich’s former chancellery.
Finding consensus in
an EU of nearly 30 states was never going to be easy. In stable
times, the divisions are just easier to ignore.
In this latest
fracturing, however, the flaws in the EU’s institutional
architecture have been magnified by a lack of credible leadership.
Like a mutinous army, member countries simply ignore Brussels’
efforts to impose discipline in areas such as refugee policy.
“It’s really a
symptom of the deeper malaise in the EU,” said Thorsten Benner,
director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin. “There
are very few areas where you have broad-based agreement anymore.
That’s obviously dangerous for the European project.”
The blocs themselves
can be as fractious as the broader Union. While the Visegrad
countries share a common loathing for Muslims, their views diverge
when it comes to issues like Russia and regional security. Some
groups, such as the much ballyhooed Weimar Triangle between France,
Germany and Poland, disappear altogether as domestic political
priorities and constellations change.
There’s also a
constant shifting of the alliances, depending on the issue at hand.
Germany, Italy and Greece may sing from the same hymnal on refugee
policy, but when it comes to economics, they don’t even share the
same religion.
If groups like
Visegrad or the newly formed EUMed were to coordinate policy and
support common initiatives across a range of economic, security and
political areas, the impact on the EU could be profound. Yet they
remain light years away from achieving such consensus.
Don’t mention the
euro
While the groups
that have emerged recently often profess high-minded political goals,
their main impact is to stall action in key areas. Instead of fresh
solutions, what emerges is often little more than a blocking minority
and further stasis, as illustrated both by the refugee crisis and
Europe’s tepid strategy to revive the economy.
The real question is
where will Europe’s increasing fracturing lead.
Brexit has spurred
countries to stake out positions ahead of what promises to become an
important, perhaps even decisive debate over the future of the EU.
“We’re all
looking at London, but the bigger question is what the rest of Europe
will do because they’re deciding the future,” said Jan Techau,
director of the Richard C. Holbrooke Forum at the American Academy in
Berlin.
The danger is the
growing factionalism will smother that debate before it starts.
The only real
way to fix the problem once and for all would be for members to
relinquish more sovereignty.
That problem was
apparent at last weekend’s summit in Bratislava. It took Germany’s
Angela Merkel weeks of shuttle diplomacy to build consensus around a
mostly humdrum list of initiatives, such as dispatching more border
guards to Bulgaria. What was supposed be a nice photo-op to showcase
Europe’s continued unity, despite Brexit, backfired in the end when
Italian leader Matteo Renzi broke ranks and criticized the outcome.
What Europe must
confront in the coming months is vastly more complicated than
questions of refugee quotas and border controls. Though little
discussed these days, the elephant in the room remains the euro.
Thanks to the
European Central Bank, the euro crisis has gone into remission. But
the underlying strains, the structural flaws in the eurozone’s
architecture that led to the crisis, remain. The dislocution in
Italy’s banking sector is just the latest reminder of the dangers
that are lurking.
The only real way to
fix the problem once and for all would be for members to relinquish
more sovereignty, for example by accepting tougher fiscal oversight
in return for common debt issuance.
A Balkanized Europe
won’t succeed in meeting such a challenge.
“The euro is the
big thing that could break everything up,” Techau said.
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