Jeremy
Corbyn’s path to Downing Street
Here
are 5 things that would help get the Labour leader into Number 10.
By CHARLIE COOPER,
ALEX SPENCE AND TOM MCTAGUE 9/26/16, 5:30 AM CET
LIVERPOOL — Labour
MPs began their annual party conference in a despondent mood Sunday.
Jeremy Corbyn’s landslide reelection as leader has condemned Labour
to the political wilderness, they fear.
Virtually everyone
in Westminster — lawmakers, pollsters, political strategists, media
pundits — agrees: With Corbyn at the helm, there is no way Labour
can return to Number 10 Downing Street.
“No. Just no,”
one Labour MP who opposed Corbyn’s reelection said when asked if
there was any hope of a general election win with Corbyn in charge.
“The polls are clear.”
Corbyn’s triumph
over the challenger Owen Smith, with the support of 61.8 percent of
party members, “traps Labour in an even deeper hole than his first
election,” said Crispin Blunt, a Conservative MP and chairman of
the Commons’ foreign affairs committee. One senior Conservative
simply burst out laughing when asked if Corbyn has a path to power.
But could the
experts, the pundits and the polls be wrong? These, after all, are
unpredictable political times.
Here’s what would
have to happen:
Theresa May slips up
May has looked
unassailable during her first two months in Downing Street. But her
position is far more fragile than it appears. The prime minister has
a majority in the House of Commons of just 12, a host of powerful,
outspoken backbenchers and a divided cabinet stuffed with big egos.
And we haven’t gotten to Brexit yet.
Everyone’s playing
nicely so far, but May has yet to be tested by a political crisis,
and there are huge challenges facing her untested administration over
the next few years — not least a messy withdrawal from the European
Union and the prospect of an economic slowdown. It is far from
inconceivable that the wheels could come off before 2020,
particularly if the Tories become complacent in the absence of an
effective opposition.
“We’re Sherlock
Holmes without Moriarty, Superman without Lex Luthor” — Tory MP
There are some Tory
MPs who privately consider a Corbyn government a real — if remote —
danger. “We should not underestimate the threat,” one Tory MP
said.
Tom Mludzinski,
director of political polling at ComRes, said that it’s “very
difficult” to plot a route for Corbyn’s Labour. But a severe
economic might crisis might damage the Conservative Party, thus
making it more likely.
“The Tories rely
on the fact that voters tend to go to them when they want strong
leadership, to get through tough times, a safe pair of hands on the
economy,” Mludzinski said. “If that perception is damaged by
ongoing uncertainty over Brexit, even a recession, if Theresa May is
damaged, then — while it’s hard to see Labour winning in terms of
perception of economic confidence — it could suppress the Tory
turnout.”
Beyond that, it will
be hard for the Tory party to increase its majority for the third
election in a row.
“The Tories have
just gone from coalition to a majority. It’s a big ask then to
increase their majority or even to hold it. History suggests you tend
to lose seats the longer you are in power, so it’s not unreasonable
to expect the Tories would lose a few seats at the next election. The
question is how many, and to who?”
Still, many Tories
consider Corbyn’s prospects rather bleak, with some MPs lamenting
the loss of a strong opposition. “Greatness requires the
counterbalance of greatness,” said one. “We’re Sherlock Holmes
without Moriarty, Superman without Lex Luthor.”
Labour comes
together
Corbyn secured the
top job a year ago in a landslide win that turned British politics on
its head. But his leadership has been overshadowed by internal party
divisions. His old-left stance alienates the majority of the party’s
MPs who believe Labour, as it did under Tony Blair, needs to occupy
the center to win elections.
Corbyn has been a
longstanding advocate of the benefits of immigration and opposed
anything that smacks of anti-migrant, but there were indications
Sunday that he was open to a harder line.
Those concerns about
Corbyn’s competence, his communications skills and the divisive
antics of some of his supporters will not disappear now that he has
won a fresh mandate. But if the moderates can rally around the
leader, and if Corbyn is willing to build bridges, Labour could turn
its guns on the Tories instead — and start acting like a true
opposition.
If the party could
get through a few months without senior figures turning on each
other, and land a few blows against the Tories, the prevailing
narrative of Corbyn as incompetent and unelectable could start to
turn.
Jeremy Corbyn MP
gives the thumbs up to supporters after being announced as the leader
of the Labour Party
“I don’t think
he will win, but I think he can,” said Paul Stephenson, one of the
leading figures in the Vote Leave Brexit campaign. “There are a
bunch of people who say Jeremy is the best thing that’s ever
happened to the Tory party. Remember, most of these people are
Cameroons, very close to the former prime minister who no longer have
a job because they lost an election.”
Stephenson said that
Corbyn needed to pick a message and stick to it religiously until the
next election. “The Tories are going to be looking to move on
immigration and other issues which could help them close the gap with
the lower middle classes. Jeremy needs to reconnect on immigration
and crime and choose another message — the NHS say. He needs one
big thing, a cause célèbre.”
The Liberal
Democrats recover
The centrist Liberal
Democrats were almost wiped out at the 2015 general election. A
cluster of seats in their stronghold in the southwest of England were
snapped up by their former coalition partners, the Conservatives.
However, the Tories’ hold over some of those seats is tenuous and a
revival of the Lib Dems’ popularity could undermine May’s
prospects of winning a general election.
Tim Farron, the Lib
Dems’ leader, has been trying to position the party as the new home
of the 48 percent of the British population that voted to stay in the
European Union, many of whom will now feel that May isn’t
representing them.
The UKIP threat
fades
UKIP, the populist
party formerly led by Nigel Farage, has been cast as a big threat to
Labour in its industrial working-class heartland in the north of
England and Wales.
However, UKIP now
has its own challenges as it tries to find its way after Farage,
under an unproven new leader, Diane James.
“There’s a real
opportunity for Labour to take back a lot of people from UKIP,”
said Stephenson.
Labour may try to
shore up its vote and steal UKIP’s thunder by tacking to the right
on immigration. One wing of the party, spearheaded by former shadow
business spokesman Chuka Umunna, has called for Labour to oppose any
Brexit deal that allows a continuation of freedom of movement.
Corbyn himself has
been a longstanding advocate of the benefits of immigration and
opposed anything that smacks of anti-migrant, but there were
indications Sunday that the leader was open to a harder line.
Corbyn’s
Euroskepticism and pledge to respect the referendum result is a good
start, Stephenson said.
“Jeremy Corbyn is
far better placed than a lot of people in his party to do this. He’s
more in touch than most of the Blairites who are trying to fight the
old war again.”
He said Corbyn could
win over a large chunk of the population if he focused on
apprenticeships to fill the gaps in the economy left by falling
immigration from Europe. “That could be an area where Labour could
really reconnect,” he said.
A left-wing
coalition
Labour’s chances
of winning another general election were drastically reduced when it
lost Scotland.
Scotland has become
almost a one-party state, with the Scottish National Party holding 56
of 59 seats. However, Corbyn could join forces with the SNP in a
left-wing alliance.
The SNP said before
the 2015 general election that it was open to backing a Labour
government to keep the Tories out of power in Westminster — and
“nothing has changed in that regard,” an SNP spokesman said,
despite Corbyn becoming leader.
Corbyn could also
reach out to the Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru. The Lib Dems,
despite their leader Farron being no fan of Corbyn, may also be
willing to join a coalition.
Even if all the
stars align, Corbyn’s chances of winning are remote. But stranger
things have happened.
“I am no longer
making any political predictions,” Mludzinksi said. “Who would
have predicted the last year or two? Nothing can be ruled out.”
Authors:
Charlie Cooper ,
Alex Spence and Tom McTague
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