How
the west might soon be lost
Under
a President Trump, democracy would lose credibility as a model for a
civilised political life
Martin Wolf
YESTERDAY by: Martin
Wolf
Sometimes history
jumps. Think of the first world war, the Bolshevik revolution, the
Great Depression, the election of Adolf Hitler, the second world war,
the beginning of the cold war, the collapse of the European empires,
Deng Xiaoping’s “reform and opening up” of China, the demise of
the Soviet Union, and the financial crisis of 2007-09 and subsequent
“great recession”.
We may be on the
brink of an event as transformative as many of these: the election of
Donald Trump as US president. This would mark the end of a US-led
west as the central force in global affairs. The result would not be
a new order. It would be perilous disorder.
The fact that Mr
Trump can be a credible contender for the presidency is astounding.
In business, he is a serial defaulter and litigator turned reality TV
star. He is a peddler of falsehoods and conspiracy theories. He
utters racist calumnies. He attacks the independence of the
judiciary. He refuses to reveal his taxes. He has no experience of
political office, and incoherent policies. He glories in ignorance.
He even hints at a federal default. He undermines confidence in the
US-created trade order, by threatening to tear up past agreements. He
undermines confidence in US democracy by claiming the election will
be rigged. He supports torture and the deliberate killing of the
families of alleged terrorists. He admires the former KGB agent who
runs Russia.
Evidently, a huge
number of US voters have lost confidence in the country’s political
and economic systems. This is so to an extent not seen even in the
1930s, when voters turned towards an established politician. Yet, for
all its challenges, the US is not in such terrible shape. It is the
richest large country in the history of the world. Growth is slow,
but unemployment is low. If voters were to choose Mr Trump —
despite his failings, displayed again in the first presidential
debate — this would tell us grim things about the health of the US.
It is the world’s
leading power, so this is not just a domestic US concern. What might
a Trump presidency mean? Forecasting the policies of someone so
unpredictable is impossible. But a few things seem at least
reasonably clear.
The US and its
allies remain immensely powerful. But their economic dominance is in
slow decline. According to the International Monetary Fund, the share
of the high-income countries (essentially, the US and its chief
allies) will fall from 64 per cent of global output (measured at
purchasing power) in 1990 to 39 per cent in 2020, while the US share
will fall from 22 per cent to 15 per cent over this period.
While the US
military might is still huge, two caveats must be made. One is that
winning a conventional war is quite a different matter from achieving
one’s aims on the ground, as the Vietnam and Iraq wars showed.
Furthermore, China’s rapidly rising defence spending could create
serious military difficulties for the US in the Asia-Pacific region.
It follows that the
ability of the US to shape the world to its liking will rest
increasingly on its influence over the global economic and political
systems. Indeed, this is not new. It has been a feature of US
hegemony since the 1940s. But this is even more important today. The
alliances the US creates, the institutions it supports and the
prestige it possesses are truly invaluable assets. All such strategic
assets would be in grave peril if Mr Trump were to be president.
The biggest contrast
between the US and China is that the former has so many powerful
allies. Even Vladimir Putin is not a reliable ally for China.
America’s allies support the US largely because they trust it. That
trust is based on its perceived commitment to predictable,
values-based behaviour. Its alliances have not been problem-free, far
from it. But they have worked. Mr Trump’s cherished
unpredictability and transactional approach to partnerships would
damage the alliances irreparably.
A vital feature of
the US-led global order has been the role of multilateral
institutions, such as the IMF, the World Bank and the World Trade
Organisation. In binding itself by the rules of an open economic
system, the US has encouraged others to do the same. The result has
been extraordinary growth in prosperity: between 1950 and 2015,
average global real output per head rose sixfold. Mr Trump does not
understand this system. The results of repudiation could be
calamitous for all.
Instant Insight
Trump fails to clear
low bar in the US presidential debate
A split-screen
America will have seen different realities in the clash between him
and Clinton
The Iraq war has
damaged trust in US wisdom and competence. But the global financial
crisis has been even more destructive. Many have long suspected US
motives. But they thought it knew how to manage a capitalist system.
The crisis devastated that confidence.
After all this
damage, election of a man as unqualified as Mr Trump would call into
question something even more fundamental: belief in the capacity of
the US to choose reasonably well-informed and competent leaders.
Under a President Trump, the democratic system would lose much of its
credibility as a model for the organisation of a civilised political
life. Mr Putin and other actual or would-be despots would cheer.
Their belief that talk of western values is just hypocrisy would be
vindicated. But those who see the US as a bastion of democracy would
despair.
If Mr Trump were to
win, it would be a regime change for the world. It would, for
example, end efforts to manage the threat of climate change, possibly
forever. But even his candidacy suggests that the US role in the
global order risks undergoing a transformation. That role depended
not only on American economic and military prowess, but also on the
values it represented. For all its mistakes, the ideal of a
law-governed democratic republic remained visible. Hillary Clinton is
an imperfect candidate. Mr Trump is something else altogether. Far
from making America great, his presidency might unravel the world.
martin.wolf@ft.com
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