OPINION
How
Angela Merkel will weather the storm
The
embattled chancellor’s strategy could carry her to reelection.
By JOERG FORBRIG
9/6/16, 2:09 PM CET
BERLIN — The year
that will decide Angela Merkel’s political fate could not have
gotten off to a worse start. With German federal elections a mere 12
months away, Merkel’s Christian-Democratic Union suffered a
resounding defeat in regional elections in her home state of
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where it was outperformed by the right-wing
and anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD).
The vote was more
than just symbolic. It displayed all the ingredients of a perfect
political storm that could sweep Merkel from office. Yet instead of
rushing a response, she has opted to wait it out. Her patience is a
sound strategy, and perhaps her best chance of staying in office
despite the considerable obstacles ahead.
Elections have
become referendums on German refugee policy. Questions that typically
win or lose elections — the economy, regional development, the
welfare state — have faded from view. Voters have been oblivious to
the fact that the country’s coffers, and Germans’ wallets, are
fuller than they have been in a long time.
Nor does it seem to
matter that the number of refugee arrivals has dropped sharply and
that the government’s handling of the situation has improved
significantly. Instead, votes are cast based on a decision that has
been attributed to the chancellor: the decision not to close
Germany’s borders.
Votes are cast based
on a decision that has been attributed to the chancellor: the
decision not to close Germany’s borders.
The country’s
focus on Merkel and “her” refugee policy has polarized the
population and fueled extremists on the right. As a result, the AfD,
whose sole demand appears to be to remove Merkel and close the
borders, has soared.
More worryingly for
Merkel, the political mainstream has begun to move away from the
refugee policy that it once supported wholeheartedly. Whether from
the opposition Left and Green parties or the governing coalition of
Christian and Social Democrats, politicians are desperate to save
their political skins from the anti-establishment and right-wing
onslaught. Their scapegoat, of course, is Merkel.
Singled out, the
once uncontested German leader has seen her ratings go into free
fall. Her approval rates dropped from more than 70 percent before the
refugee crisis to 45 percent, and her party’s rating fell from
around 40 percent to just above 30 percent nationwide.
Support for Merkel
from within her own party has eroded and critics have become more
vocal. Some, especially from Bavaria, openly challenge her
leadership. Long-time conservatives are defecting noisily, and
regional candidates prefer that she stay away from their campaign
trail. The party base has implored the chancellor to change course.
But Merkel knows that yielding now would come at an even higher
political price than sticking to her principles on migration.
AfD supporters
protest against Angela Merkel's immigration policy in 2015 | Sean
Gallup/Getty Images
AfD supporters
protest against Angela Merkel’s immigration policy in 2015 | Sean
Gallup/Getty Images
The party’s
current weakness, and dim prospects to recover its lost strength, is
not unique to the conservatives, however. Last weekend’s election,
like most recent ones, recorded losses for all mainstream parties —
a signal that the political balance in Germany is shifting.
A gradual weakening
of the Volksparteien has been accelerated by the recent emergence of
a populist party on the right. In combination, this means that
garnering sufficient majorities and building stable governing
coalitions will become increasingly difficult.
The trend reduces
Merkel’s coalition options, despite the fact that her party is
still bound to win the next federal elections. Both her allegedly
preferred next alliance with the Greens, and the historically
standard coalition with the Free Democrats, are unlikely to get
enough votes to govern. Neither the Left party nor the Alternative
for Germany are ideologically compatible with the Christian
Democrats.
What is left, then,
is a continued “grand coalition” with the Social Democrats. To
preserve this option, Merkel has to do what she’s been doing:
tolerate the many contrarian strains in her current coalition and
weather the numerous attacks made by her allies in government.
As if these domestic
storm clouds were not enough, more trouble is in the making on the
European and international stage. The refugee question has not been
resolved, and the EU’s deal with Turkey is under even greater
pressure following the July coup. The eurozone crisis simmers beneath
the surface, and post-Brexit EU is still shrouded in uncertainty.
Russian aggression looms large, and judging by the U.S. elections,
the Kremlin may well interfere with the German ballot next year.
In the face of all
these challenges, Merkel is undoubtedly the key European figure. This
means, though, that she will be held responsible for failing to stamp
out these international fires.
What fuels her
patience is the certainty that no credible alternative for chancellor
exists within her own party, as even her fiercest critics will admit.
Pressured from so
many sides, Merkel seems to have taken a page from the playbook of
her political mentor Helmut Kohl, who was famous for “sitting
things out.” She is steadfast in her decision to help refugees,
hoping that time will prove her right. Merkel is no doubt hoping that
the issue will lose some of its centrality in German public debate,
and that other, more classical electoral issues will return to the
agenda.
Merkel has retained
her stoic calm in the face of vicious political attacks from both
within her own bloc and her junior partner in government. What fuels
her patience is the certainty that no credible alternative for
chancellor exists within her own party, as even her fiercest critics
will admit.
Just as importantly,
she can count on the fact that the Social Democrats also lack a
credible alternative to the coalition with the Christian Democrats,
despite their current flirtations with the Left and Green parties.
They are effectively condemned to rule with her beyond the fall of
next year.
Ostensibly, Merkel
is waiting to announce her decision to run again until she has the
clear backing of her own party later this year. What’s more likely
is that she is hoping the coming half-year gap in the German election
calendar will allow some of the dust to settle, and give her time to
recover her high approval ratings. In the meantime, she has thrown
herself fully into EU politics, just like her political father and
predecessor would have done.
It’s a reasonable
approach by the embattled chancellor. Chances are that, despite
everyone’s current alarmism, Teflon Merkel will simply do it again.
Joerg Forbrig is a
senior transatlantic fellow with the German Marshall Fund of the
United States in Berlin.
Authors:
Joerg Forbrig
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