Merkel's
Challenge Navigating the Post-Fact Era
Angela
Merkel used to be celebrated for her composed determination and sober
analysis of the facts. Now, though, her refusal to own up to her
mistakes makes her look stubborn -- and facts have lost their
importance.
A SPIEGEL Editorial
by Klaus Brinkbäumer
September 13, 2016
01:23 PM
These are strange
times -- times in which facts have less influence on political
realities than mood and emotion. Numbers hardly count anymore, not as
much, at least, as fear and hate, rumors and mutterings of
conspiracy. That's why the German right-wing populist party
Alternative for Germany (AfD) was able to do so well in the September
4 state election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The vote was
essentially a referendum on Chancellor Angela Merkel's refugee
policies, yet there are hardly any foreigners living in the state. We
have more data and facts available to us than ever before, and yet we
have entered a post-fact era. Why?
Were Germany a
company, we would speak of structural change, of upheaval. The
country -- blessedly safe and prosperous -- is surrounded by regions
in crisis. The problems elsewhere reach us digitally -- permanently
and amplified. But they also reach us in actuality. Our country is
changing, with a feeling of uncertainty having become a paramount
emotion these days, combined with a sense of indignity.
Angela Merkel has
become a victim of this mood, and that is one side of the defeat
suffered by her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), in the
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election, where it received fewer
votes than the AfD. The situation in the country, according to the
facts, at least, is quite a bit different than it was in 2015.
Residency laws have been tightened and the borders are back under
control. But the AfD, which rails against a presumed "Merkel
Dictatorship" on the country's market squares and baits people
who are fleeing from poison gas, is fueled by post-fact politics (as
is the Christian Social Union, the Bavarian sister party to Merkel's
CDU). Just as American demagogue Donald Trump is able to keep up with
Hillary Clinton, AfD leader Frauke Petry nips at the chancellor's
heels with emotion. But that's not the whole story.
Many politicians,
companies and institutions fail because they miss decisive shifts or
deceive themselves. Former German Chancellors Adenauer and Kohl
thought they were irreplaceable and became sluggish -- and didn't
notice when they began losing ground. Kodak saw digitalization
coming, but didn't want to see it. In the 1970s, Ford built a car,
the Pinto, that everyone in top management knew would explode if it
was rear-ended, but they all convinced each other that the problem
didn't exist. Psychologists refer to such self-deception as the
"normalization of deviance," and it works great -- until it
doesn't.
A Bit of Self-Pity
Angela Merkel has
made mistakes that could soon cost her the Chancellery and make a
dignified departure impossible. Those mistakes are the other -- for
her, painful -- side of the defeat. A head of government cannot allow
herself petulant mood swings. After a decade of showing little
interest in migration, Merkel was suddenly deeply moved in the summer
of 2015 and decided to follow her emotions. Then, in the winter that
followed, Merkel's actions once again cooled in response to public
outrage, but she continued to defend the warm decisions she had made
in the summer. She has never adequately explained the incoherence.
It was nice to
experience a Germany exhibiting as much solidarity as it did in the
summer of 2015. But a chancellor must also consider the possible
effects of selfies taken with refugees. She has to think about
whether the federal police force and other agencies will be able to
keep up when the chancellor suddenly changes course. Shrewd
governance requires clarity about, and the effective communication
of, goals, strategy and tactics.
No leader can cede
control of essential state responsibilities in times of upheaval yet
Merkel, in claiming that the borders could not be controlled, did
exactly that. Today, the Chancellery has come to accept the following
facts: For eight weeks, the state lost control and was powerless.
That control was soon regained, but in the post-fact era, a nucleus
is all that is needed. The attacks in Paris and Brussels, the sexual
assaults on New Year's Eve in Cologne, the attacks in Nice and
Ansbach and the shooting spree in Munich: None of them had much to do
with refugees, but they have prevented a return to calm and have kept
alive the perception of loss of control that Merkel triggered in the
summer of 2015. It has become simple to fan the flames of xenophobia.
What was once
celebrated as Merkel's composed determination is now being condemned
as obstinacy and the chancellor is taken aback. She thinks it's
unfair, which is a bit self-pitying, but she remains interested in
the problems she faces. As always, Merkel wants to continue, but it
would be more astute for her to recognize the shift that is underway
and the challenges it presents. And to determine in which moments
facts and figures make sense and when might appeals to emotion be
more useful. What strategies and which members of her inner circle
have been effective thus far and what must be changed to confront the
changed political reality?
She needs to go back
to the beginning and find clarity about her own course. She must then
rebuild trust, and provide extensive and repeated explanations for
her actions. Because if she wants to ultimately leave office on top,
she must reach out to voters who have thrown their support behind the
AfD, to her own party, to CSU head Horst Seehofer and to Social
Democratic party head Sigmar Gabriel. Nobody can confront structural
change all alone.
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