France’s
summer stars face a tough fall
As
presidential campaign season gets serious, media darlings Alain Juppé
and Emmanuel Macron will come under fire.
By
Pierre Briançon
8/29/16, 5:30 AM CET
PARIS — The spring
and summer darlings of the French political scene may struggle in the
fall.
Alain Juppé and
Emmanuel Macron became France’s two most popular politicians over
the last few months as voters, tired of both sitting President
François Hollande and his predecessor Nicolas Sarkozy, are looking
for new leaders whom they consider more able to deal with the tough
period France is going through.
True, the French
seem to like both men for different reasons — Juppé because he has
experience, Macron because he doesn’t. The former is 71 and was
prime minister under conservative president Jacques Chirac more than
20 years ago. The latter is 38 and has only been economy minister —
a relatively minor job in the French government — for the last two
years.
But so far both men
remain high in the electorate’s esteem. Juppé is still the most
popular politician, according to the latest IPSOS poll, after
spending most of the year in town meetings and honing his message,
promising a shock-and-awe push for reform in his mandate’s first
six months. And Macron seems to have benefited from his increasing
political assertiveness, launching a political movement and promising
his followers that he would “lead [them] to victory” next year.
It’s worth noting
that part of their appeal is relative, and that they only stand out
in contrast to the deep mistrust in which the French hold most other
politicians.
Macron’s main
problem is that he is mostly popular with conservative voters, and
not that much within his own camp.
But both men will
face similar challenges to translate into actual votes what IPSOS
pollster Mathieu Gallard calls their “paper popularity.” Juppé
is running in the conservative Les Républicains party’s primary,
to be held in November. Macron is mulling leaving the Socialist
government in September or October to be free to run as an
independent candidate in the presidential election in May 2017 — a
decision he hasn’t made yet, according to an aide.
Juppé’s main
rival for now is Sarkozy, who didn’t surprise anyone last week when
he officially confirmed he would run. Macron’s main problem is that
he is mostly popular with conservative voters, and not that much
within his own camp.
Bubble deflation
Several factors may
soon challenge both men’s standing in the polls, advisers from
within their own camps acknowledge. The first is that the Nice terror
attacks in July have put an increased emphasis on security concerns.
On the Right, that plays into the tough law-and-order campaign
Sarkozy is preparing. On the Left it favors the experience of a
sitting president to deal with threats both domestic and foreign.
The second reason
why “the bubble may be deflating,” in the words of a top Juppé
adviser, is that as France gets nearer to the primaries and the
general election, both Juppé and Macron will increasingly become
targets for political attacks — first from within their own camps,
then from their traditional adversaries.
It has already
begun. Sarkozy has spent months alluding not-so-subtly to Juppé’s
age, even though he’s only 10 years younger than his rival. And
Macron’s proclamations that the Socialist government he belongs to
has failed has turned Prime Minister Manuel Valls, his former ally,
into an arch-enemy.
“It’s high time
for all of this to stop,” a visibly irate Valls said on the eve of
Macron’s first big public rally in July.
Valls, meanwhile, is
entertaining presidential ambitions of his own in case Hollande bows
out, and the prime minister would then be likely to run on a
law-and-order platform remarkably similar to that of Sarkozy.
So far the attacks
against Juppé and Macron are only skirmishes compared to what awaits
the duo once the campaigns start in earnest. Then the candidates’
specific ideas or proposals, which the French tend to forget when
polled for popularity ratings, will come under attack.
In that respect
Macron may have the most to lose if people start to really pay
attention to what he is saying. “There’s a paradox that he
remains highly popular with his resolutely liberal agenda — both on
the economy and on social matters — in a country that is not that
liberal at all,” Gallard said.
As economy minister,
Macron has defended reforms that were always far more popular on the
Right than on the Left — such as scrapping the 35-hour week, or
liberalizing labor markets.
And ever since the
November 2015 terror attacks in Paris, he has advocated a response
“that would not be all about security” but would include dealing
with the derelict banlieues, home to a high proportion of French
Muslims. There is “too much urgency and emotion” in the current
debates, he recently said.
Simple solutions
All this might make
Macron look like a man running against the times, one of his own
advisers admits. “Trying to be open and reasonable when politicians
are competing on closed borders and demagogy is a fine line to
tread,” the adviser said.
But speaking at the
first rally of his official campaign on Saturday, Juppé didn’t
seem to consider that a losing battle. Without naming Sarkozy, he
seemed on the contrary intent on emphasizing the difference with his
rival. “My campaign will not be based on fear,” he insisted.
The “three
challenges” France must take on, Juppé said, were equality between
men and women, the ecology and technological change.
“I will not
accept a French-style Guantanamo in which thousands of people would
be detained without trial on mere suspicion” — Alain Juppé
In the current
context, that might be enough to make Juppé look like candidate
Moonbeam.
The former PM
however knows he has to talk about terrorism, which seems the only
theme Sarkozy intends to run on. But he thinks French voters also
want to hear what candidates have to say about the economy, education
and even — he and Macron being the only two politicians to even
mention the theme — Europe.
His problem is to
find a way to appear firm and resolute without emulating Sarkozy’s
fierce law-and-order rhetoric — which his aide called “Le
Pen-light.” In the book the former president published last week
announcing his candidacy, Sarkozy casually brushed off the concerns
of “finicky lawyers” concerning proposals that would raise
serious constitutional questions — for example on the detention of
people suspected of terrorist sympathies.
“I will not accept
a French-style Guantanamo in which thousands of people would be
detained without trial on mere suspicion,” Juppé said Saturday in
a direct answer to Sarkozy’s proposal.
“He’s not the
kind to go for the simple solutions people sometimes demand in times
like these,” his aide noted.
But the unspoken
fear among candidates eager to appear reasonable and measured is that
new terror attacks in the next few months might push French voters
further towards simplicity.
Nicolas
Sarkozy, ‘exceptional man’
The former
president’s campaign hails him as nothing less than
‘extraordinary.’
By
Nicholas Vinocur
9/3/16, 5:29 AM CET
PARIS — North
Korea’s school of public relations would be proud.
As Nicolas Sarkozy
gets his election campaign underway, supporters from France’s
Haute-Saône region published an article on the candidate’s
personal website that extolls the former president in terms echoing
the breathless tone of Pyongyang news dispatches.
Titled “10 Good
Reasons to Support Nicolas Sarkozy’s Campaign,” the article calls
him an “exceptional,” “extraordinary” man, a “global
authority” who is welcomed by leaders “around the world” with
“haste and respect;” a “lucid reformer” who “never lied to
the French” and will “modernize our institutions” as soon as he
is re-elected.
While the first nine
reasons listed for voting Sarkozy focus on his legacy and political
reputation, the last one zeroes in on the human being.
“Nicolas Sarkozy
is an exceptional man,” it begins.
“His background,
his personality, his temperament, his legacy make him an
extraordinary man. They say he is ‘divisive.’ That stems from
media’s immediacy or on the superficial nature of things. When you
analyze his political decisions, they are constantly underpinned by a
search for compromise … He is particularly determined and shows an
ability to persevere against all odds. The flow of attacks, insults
and questioning would have crushed most men. His capacity to resist
in any circumstances is impressive.”
Reason number three:
“He never lied to the French” is a dig at French President
François Hollande, whom Sarkozy accuses of lying constantly.
Reason number four:
“He saved our political family,” refers to the fratricide battles
taking place within the mainstream center-right party before Sarkozy
took control, and promptly rebranded it as “Les Républicains”
despite his rivals’ protests.
Reason number five
describes Sarkozy as a “lucid reformer.” No matter that the
former president himself admits having “regrets” about his time
in power, especially his failure to address rigidities in labor
market legislation.
Three months before
the start of the Républicains primary, which will be held in two
rounds on November 20 and 27, Sarkozy is determined to create what he
calls a “blast” effect by saturating media with his presence at
the expense of rivals, chiefly Alain Juppé, the race’s
frontrunner. Sarkozy’s book, “Tout pour la France” (“Everything
for France”), is available at train stations across the country,
and had sold 32,000 copies three days after its release — a healthy
number for a political title.
Early signs suggest
the approach is paying off. A TNS-Sofres poll this week showed him
neck-and-neck with Juppé in round one of the two-round election,
though he was still trailing in the final round.
For an “exceptional
man,” closing that gap should be child’s play.
Authors:
Nicholas Vinocur
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