Jean-Claude
Juncker’s survival strategy
Eight
reasons why the embattled European Commission president isn’t going
anywhere.
By RYAN HEATH AND
HARRY COOPER 7/13/16, 5:30 AM CET Updated 7/13/16, 5:55 AM CET
European Commission
President Jean-Claude Juncker was a target of criticism in the
aftermath of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, with some
national politicians saying he was the wrong man at the wrong time as
the EU heads into an uncertain future.
But in recent days
Juncker has shown the political street smarts that got him the
Commission job in the first place. Long known as the EU insider’s
insider, the Commission president has managed to deflect calls for
his resignation, win support from his sometime rival at the European
Council, Donald Tusk, subdue his integrationist, more-Europe reflex,
and make a case for stability and solidarity in the Union. He’s
even been traveling more, looking presidential at EU summits in
Warsaw and in Beijing.
Is he outthinking
everyone? Here’s a look at eight reasons why Juncker is not likely
to be shoved aside anytime soon.
Assuming that
Merkel-led negotiations could create a balance of interests
elsewhere, there is no consensus on who could replace Juncker.
It’s inconvenient
for Angela Merkel
The German
chancellor is the only individual European leader with the soft power
to force Juncker from office. But she has no interest in doing so at
a time when she has electoral worries of her own, including such
domestic challenges as mending ties to her coalition partner the CSU
party, and keeping a lid on the surging Alternative for Germany (AfD)
in the lead-up to 2017 elections. A Juncker departure would be
another crisis Merkel could do without. In any case, a relatively
weak Commission president suits Germany, leaving Merkel essentially
unchallenged on major issues.
France wants Juncker
to stay, too
The biggest concern
of the François Hollande administration and French diplomats is the
need to avoid fueling support for Marine Le Pen and the National
Front. That means fending off budget clampdowns by Brussels, and
being able to visibly claim victories in the EU system. The country’s
powerful European commissioner Pierre Moscovici, who saw more
responsibility for the euro added to his portfolio in the wake of the
Brexit vote, is well positioned to do this. France is also satisfied
with the status quo.
Most national
governments like a part-time president
Governments are
happy to see a relatively inactive Commission compared to those of
Juncker’s predecessors, with legislative output more than halved.
Juncker made sure after the Brexit outcome to remind everyone that
his Commission was going to keep its promise of doing more by doing
less. Pro-EU MEPs may be bored, but national governments are
relieved. Juncker’s plan for a “European Pillar of Social Rights”
is still nowhere to be seen, plans for a eurozone treasury are
gathering dust, and dreams of a new EU treaty are just that …
dreams.
The federalist
rhetoric has been dialed way down
In his 2015 State of
the Union address to the European Parliament, Juncker said “there
is not enough Europe in this Union. And there is not enough Union in
this Union.” Fast-forward to the Brexit campaign and Juncker was
shifting tack. In an April 2016 speech Juncker said, “The
Commission is doing less. I think that one of the reasons that
European citizens are stepping away from the European project is that
we are interfering in too many domains of their private lives.”
Speaking to reporters from the German magazine Spiegel in June 2016,
Juncker sounded almost proud of his new Euro-realist tone: “I am
not an advocate of the ‘United States of Europe,’ nor am I an
integration fanatic. You can’t deepen the European Union against
the wishes of the European countries.”
He plays well with
Socialists
There are many in
Brussels who think the notionally center-right Juncker sits to the
left of his notionally Socialist first vice president, Frans
Timmermans. Juncker and European Parliament President Martin Schulz
brag in interviews about being a “proven team.” This sort of
canny positioning helps keep the second-biggest political force in
Brussels on-side. The Commission’s recent moves to give some
economic wiggle room to Portugal and Spain also play well with
anti-austerity Socialists. Combined with Juncker’s personal touch,
honed during three decades working the backrooms and phone lists of
Europe’s political elite, the Commission president has a safety net
that crosses borders and the political aisle. It worked well during
his two most recent scrapes: an intelligence services mismanagement
scandal that saw him resign as Luxembourg prime minister but bounce
back within a year to lead the Commission, and a no-confidence vote
in the European Parliament over the Luxleaks tax avoidance scandal.
He (mostly) plays
well with Parliament
Despite making waves
with his endorsement of Schulz to stay on as Parliament president,
Juncker has strong support in the assembly, and MEPs are unlikely to
push to remove him. That’s especially so because the Parliament has
no legal powers to unseat Juncker on his own: They would have to
remove all 28 commissioners together, as nearly happened in 1999.
Then, the entire Santer Commission resigned en masse, to avoid the
humiliation of being sacked by the Parliament for mismanagement.
Juncker is a
creation of the 2014 European elections Spitzenkandidaten process and
meets regularly for dinner with a “G5” of the Parliament’s top
leaders. Many MEPs see Juncker as symbolizing through his means of
election and his policies, an emerging European democracy. In this
thinking, to hurt Juncker is to hurt that overall project, and to
lose access personally and institutionally to that sort of Commission
leader. The wish by national leaders for more “inter-governmental”
processes, rather than decisions involving the Commission and
Parliament, would become reality in a post-Juncker world.
In 2014,
center-right and center-left heads of state, party leaders, and
senior MEPs agreed to share out the top EU jobs between themselves
based on ideology and nationality. Removing Juncker upsets that
balance. It also opens up a political Pandora’s Box. Which other
small, reliable country could supply a candidate that satisfies the
Franco-German engine at the heart of Europe? How would leaders take
account of the rising number of liberal heads of government now at
the EU summit table? Spain remains annoyed that it lacks a top
position. Any shuffling of Poles in top EU jobs such as Council
President Donald Tusk or Commissioner Elżbieta Bieńkowska could
lead to a right-wing figure from the Law and Justice party being sent
to Brussels. These are just several of 28 or more possible
difficulties.
There’s no
consensus on a replacement
Assuming that
Merkel-led negotiations could create a balance of interests
elsewhere, there is no consensus on who could replace Juncker.
Timmermans does little to hide his interest in being a European
statesman, but his ascension to the top Commission job would require
a European People’s Party candidate to replace Martin Schulz as
Parliament president, as well as support from foes such as the Polish
government. Herman Van Rompuy served as a compromise candidate before
but hardly suggests fresh thinking or a fresh face. Valdis
Dombrovskis has had his wings clipped in the post-Brexit Commission
settlement. The celebrity options, Christine Lagarde (now tied into a
second IMF term) and Tony Blair (wrong nationality and politically
wounded by the Iraq war and coverage of his business interests) are
non-starters.
Authors:
Ryan Heath and
Harry Cooper
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