In
troubled times, Germans embrace ‘Mommy’ Merkel
From
the refugee crisis to terror attacks, the chancellor should be losing
support. She’s never been more popular.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 7/25/16, 5:30 AM CET
BERLIN — Nothing
erodes public confidence in the ruling class like political upheaval,
violence and economic uncertainty. Yet in Germany these days, that
combustible mix is fueling a quiet revival of Angela Merkel’s
political fortunes.
The weekend violence
in Germany, which began with the deadly rampage by a bloodthirsty
teen in Munich and ended with a suicide bombing in a small Bavarian
city, marked the latest in a series of events, from the U.K.
referendum to an ISIL-inspired hatchet attack on a German commuter
train, that have unnerved the Merkel Republic.
So far, instead of
turning away from their leader, as one might expect, Germans have
been flocking to her like moths to a flame. A string of recent polls
(taken before the weekend attacks) showed that Merkel had largely
recovered from the hit she took during the refugee crisis. The
chancellor’s approval rating reached 59 percent in July, the
highest since September 2015, in this month’s benchmark
Deutschlandtrend poll, conducted by Infratest dimap for German public
television.
With little more
than a year to go until the next general election, Merkel, the leader
Germans only half-mockingly like to refer to as Mutti (Mommy), is
once again ascendant.
Merkel’s trademark
sangfroid was on full display over the weekend
That may not be too
surprising in a conservative country of voters who prize continuity
and fear change. Still, given the thrashing Merkel took for opening
Germany’s gates to more than one million migrants last year, her
recent bounce is notable. The question is whether it’s sustainable.
Even if Merkel’s
biggest advantage is the gnawing unease in her population over recent
events, that ur-Teutonic emotion Germans call Angst, it’s also her
Achilles heel. The explosion of violence in Germany over the past few
days offered a stark reminder of how volatile the environment has
become. The Munich attack on Friday was followed by the murder of a
woman near Stuttgart by a machete-wielding Syrian refugee. A
suspected suicide bombing outside a festival in the small city of
Ansbach late Sunday that left the bomber dead and 12 injured, capped
off what go down as the country’s bloodiest weekend in recent
memory.
Though the attacks
weren’t linked, they have further unsettled an already jittery
public. That the Ansbach bomber was a Syrian refugee whose asylum
application had been rejected will do little to convince Germans that
refugees don’t pose a serious security risk. Merkel’s response in
the coming days and weeks could determine whether Germans continue to
trust her.
That said, terrorism
is far from Merkel’s only problem.
“She still faces a
number of ticking time bombs,”said Thorsten Benner, director of the
Berlin-based Global Public Policy Institute, a think tank.
Those include the
refugee crisis, Brexit and Italy’s banking woes , to name but a
few. Germans’ biggest current fear is terrorism, followed by
political extremism and domestic tensions over refugees, according to
a study published this month by insurer R+V.
While Merkel has
found short-term remedies for some voter concerns, most are far from
resolved and could flare at any moment. As this month’s failed coup
in Turkey illustrated, new threats to the region’s stability
abound.
Far-right disharmony
Merkel’s recent
recovery came mainly the result of a calming of the refugee crisis.
The closing of the so-called Balkan route coupled with the European
Union’s deal with Turkey, which halted the flow of migrants across
the Aegean, has eased if not erased fears about the number of
refugees arriving.
The drop in refugee
numbers has coincided with infighting in the anti-immigrant
Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
Disputes within the
leadership of the party have cost it support. Recent polls put it at
about 11 percent, well off the 15 percent it was polling as recently
as May. Merkel’s conservative alliance is back up around 35 percent
after falling to the low 30s earlier in the year.
The AfD has already
tried to capitalize on the weekend attacks, highlighting the
attackers’ links to the Muslim world and migrant backgrounds.
However serious are
the challenges Merkel faces, it’s difficult to fathom a scenario
where Germans would give up what most regard as the voice of reason
in troubled times.
Merkel’s trademark
sangfroid was on full display amid the weekend chaos. During what on
Friday at first appeared to be a terrorist siege in Munich, the
chancellor remained out of sight. Amid the cacophony of false alarms,
which took police several hours to dispel, Berlin was largely silent,
saying only that the chancellor was monitoring events closely.
Merkel didn’t
appear until the next day after a fuller picture of the Munich
rampage had emerged. She spoke from the Berlin chancellery, but the
cadence of her voice and her choice of words evoked the Lutheran
church she grew up in as the daughter of a pastor: “To the
families, the parents and children for whom today everything appears
empty and senseless, I say both for myself and in the name of many,
many people in Germany: We share your pain. We are thinking of you.
We suffer with you…The state and its security services will
continue to do everything they can to protect the safety and security
of all.”
With that, she left
the stage, taking no questions from the assembled reporters.
No alternative
Even though a
majority of Germans don’t believe the government can prevent terror
— a poll out last week found that 77 percent of Germans anticipate
further terrorist attacks — they appear to find solace in Merkel’s
words.
They have less faith
in her political rivals. Social Democrat leader Sigmar Gabriel, the
man expected to challenge Merkel for the chancellorship, is among the
country’s least popular major politicians and many of his own
supporters think he’s not suited to run the country. None of the
other parties is big enough to mount a serious challenge for
chancellor.
That means Merkel,
to borrow one of her favorite phrases, is “without alternative.”
The only real
question is what kind of coalition she will build. Though more than
40 percent of Germans continue to favor the current grand coalition
between Merkel’s conservatives and the Social Democrats, the foot
soldiers in both parties want to avoid it at all costs.
The emergence of the
AfD has complicated the math for the center-right forces around
Merkel
Many in Berlin are
betting Merkel will pursue a deal with the Greens. While the party
has shed much of its radical positions, there’s still some question
about whether it could ever govern with a party that is the epitome
of the establishment. Some influential Greens have their own doubts
and are pushing for a left-wing alliance between with the Social
Democrats and the Left party, a motley collection of former communist
elements.
The emergence of the
AfD has complicated the math for the center-right forces around
Merkel. Their preferred partner, the liberal Free Democrats, are
unlikely to win enough of the vote to form a coalition.
Though the election
is more than a year away, the unofficial beginning of the campaign
season will be this fall after the summer break.
Given the
chancellor’s dominance, the parties will be competing as much for
her favor as for voters. Despite the challenges she faces, few think
the Merkel era will end any time soon.
“She has the
luxury of being able to choose who she governs with,” Benner said.
Authors:
Matthew Karnitschnig
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