Erdoğan’s
‘Reichstag fire’
Europe
and America grapple with the fallout from a failed putsch in Turkey.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG 7/17/16, 9:33 PM CET
BERLIN — Even
before the last shots were fired in the small hours of Saturday, it
was clear that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan wouldn’t let a coup
attempt go to waste.
Whatever faint hopes
there may have been in Washington and Europe that he would capitalize
on the outrage over the attempted putsch among the Turkish population
and the political opposition to show a commitment to democratic
ideals quickly faded, however.
Within hours, the
purges of the judiciary and military had begun. While it could take
months to determine what this “cleansing” will mean for the
future of Turkey, this much is certain: Ankara’s fraught relations
with the West just got a lot more complicated.
“He had a golden
opportunity to change the narrative,” said Jonathan Eyal, associate
director at the Royal United Services Institute, a U.K. think tank.
“Instead, he chose the path of vengeance and score-settling. That
will make it far more difficult for Western allies to stand by him.”
“There is no doubt
that we are witnessing the consolidation of a new form of
authoritarian regime with a populist streak.” — Ayşe Kadıoğlu,
professor
Erdoğan has been at
odds with the West over a range of issues recently, from Ankara’s
crackdown on the Kurds, to Syria and the refugee crisis. What has
strained relations most is the president’s increasingly
authoritarian rule, in particular his assaults on critical media and
the opposition, a crackdown many fear has put Turkey on course toward
full-scale dictatorship.
Some Western
officials and analysts predict the thwarted coup will become
Erdoğan’s “Reichstag fire,” a reference to the 1933 arson in
Germany’s parliament that served as Hitler’s justification for
suspending civil liberties, the beginning of the Nazi dictatorship.
“There is no doubt
that we are witnessing the consolidation of a new form of
authoritarian regime with a populist streak,” said Ayşe Kadıoğlu,
a professor at Istanbul’s Sabancı University, in an essay for Open
Democracy.
“With the
crackdown on media, academic freedoms, random arrests, and the
increasing violence in the southeast provinces, citizens in Turkey
have been facing major limitations on their basic freedoms for the
past few years. The attempted coup d’état of July 15 is like the
last nail in the coffin.”
As with the
Reichstag fire, which the Nazis blamed on a Dutch anarchist, it may
prove impossible to say with certainty who was behind the weekend
coup attempt. If the Turkish leadership uses the event to amend the
constitution to give Erdoğan sweeping authority, as now seems
likely, that may not matter in long run.
Confident in the
knowledge that the West needs his help in the fight against the
so-called Islamic State and to harbor refugees from Syria, Erdoğan
has largely ignored the criticism from Europe and the U.S.
Threats of ‘a
serious war’
The signals out of
Erdoğan’s camp in the aftermath of the coup attempt suggest the
troubled relationship is going to become even more transactional.
Even though
President Barack Obama denounced the coup attempt before the outcome
was clear, and made it clear the U.S. stood behind Erdoğan, the
Turkish leadership accused Washington of helping to plot it.
Turkish Prime
Minister Binali Yıldırım went so far as to suggest the U.S. would
be “engaged in a serious war” with his country if it didn’t
hand over Fethullah Gülen, the U.S.-based Muslim cleric Ankara sees
as the mastermind of the plot.
Turkish Prime
Minister and leader of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party)
Binali Yildirim
Turkish Prime
Minister and leader of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party)
Binali Yildirim | Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images
The accusations
directed at Washington, unprecedented from a NATO ally, prompted an
angry response from Secretary of State John Kerry.
“Public
insinuations or claims about any role by the United States in the
failed coup attempt are utterly false and harmful to our bilateral
relations,” he said.
A report in Turkish
media on Sunday that Erdoğan would meet Vladimir Putin next month
will do little to calm the waters.
Refugees vs Visas
Erdoğan’s
agreement to harbor millions of Syrian refugees and prevent them from
traveling into the EU defused a major political crisis that has
divided Europe like nothing else in its postwar history.
In return for
Turkey’s help, the EU agreed to send billions in aid and,
crucially, to extend visa-free travel to Turks.
Erdoğan has
threatened to pull out of the refugee deal if Europe doesn’t lift
the visa requirement this year.
“A democracy that
respects the rights of all and protects minorities is the best
foundation for doing so” — Angela Merkel
Europe is demanding
Turkey meet a long list of democratic requirements, including an
independent judiciary, before visa liberalization takes effect. But
after Erdoğan fired thousands of judges over the weekend, including
members of the country’s highest court, it will be impossible to
argue that the country meets that test.
Another hurdle is
Erdoğan’s controversial anti-terror laws, which allow the
government to severely restrict media freedoms and detain activists.
In the wake of the
coup attempt, there’s little chance Turkey will agree to water down
the legislation.
Indeed, comments
over the weekend from senior Turkish officials, including suggestions
the country reintroduce the death penalty, indicate the country is
moving in the opposite direction.
German leader Angela
Merkel, who like Obama denounced the putsch attempt and supported
Erdoğan, made a plea for Turkish democracy.
Saying she hoped
Turkey could overcome the violence, Merkel said: “A democracy that
respects the rights of all and protects minorities is the best
foundation for doing so.”
Erdoğan’s
relations with Berlin of late have been even more troubled than those
with Washington. A recent resolution by the German parliament
declaring the Ottoman Empire’s massacre of Armenians in 1915 a
genocide triggered an angry response from the Turkish leadership.
Since the vote,
Ankara has barred German MPs from visiting their country’s
Turkey-based troops. Merkel raised the issue this month with Erdoğan
at the NATO summit in Warsaw but he refused to back down.
Such tensions aside,
the question now is how far Europe is willing to go to keep the
refugee pact alive.
One theory is that
Erdoğan, unwilling to make the concessions necessary to win the visa
waiver, will accept more money instead. Europe, which still has deep
qualms about granting Turks travel privileges, might be happy to
agree.
“No one has an
interest in seeing this deal fully applied or in seeing its
collapse,” Eyal of the Royal United Services Institute said.
Authors:
Matthew Karnitschnig
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