Opinion:
Standing Up To Putin's Aggression
By Mathieu von Rohr
Russia
is only as strong as the West is weak. Europe and the United States
have no answer to Putin's aggressive approach in Syria and elsewhere
because they themselves lack a clear strategy.
February 22, 2016 –
09:42 PM
So what is it that
Russia wants? It wants to expand its influence in the Middle East and
Eastern Europe and it wants to once again be on equal footing with
the United States on the international stage. As recent events have
shown, President Vladimir Putin is willing to use almost all means
necessary in the pursuit of this aim. Russia doesn't even shy away
from conducting airstrikes on residential areas in Syria, bombing
hospitals in the process. It is likewise forcing the Sunni population
to take flight, thereby increasing the flow of refugees and
destabilizing Europe and Turkey. It has become obvious that Russia is
not a partner to the West, not even, as some had hoped, in fighting
the Islamic State.
On the contrary,
Russia has become a destructive actor.
Hardly anything did
more to irritate Russian leadership than the statement made by US
President Barack Obama in 2014 that the country was no more than a
"regional power." Ever since, Russian President Vladimir
Putin has been working tenaciously to prove the opposite. When Prime
Minister Dimitry Medvedev speaks of a "New Cold War," as he
did a week ago at the Munich Security Conference, it is
representative of precisely this claim to importance. For there to be
a New Cold War, there must be two opposing parties of equal strength.
It is surely no
coincidence that Medvedev uttered his words in Germany, where fears
of a confrontation with Russia run especially deep. With his choice
of words, the prime minister is pursuing the same goal as the Russian
fighter planes that are shadowing German Tornado reconnaissance jets
over Syria or operating near the air space of NATO member states.
They are gestures aimed at intimidating the West against trying to
counter Russian aspirations to power.
Economically
Insignificant
But today's Russia
is not the Soviet Union. The country may have beefed up its military
in recent years, but economically it remains relatively
insignificant. Sanctions and the low oil price have thrown the
country back even further. The fact that we are nevertheless being
forced to reckon with Russia is solely the product of the
determination and strategic savvy of the Russian leadership -- and
the failure of the West. Ultimately, Russia is only as strong as the
West is weak. Europe and the United States have no answer to Putin's
aggressive approach because they themselves have no clear strategy.
They are incapable of even agreeing on common goals.
Just take Syria. Two
years ago, the US refrained from establishing a no-fly zone in the
northern part of the country or providing massive support to those
moderate rebels who were fighting against both Syrian President
Bashar Assad and Islamic State. Doing so would have been perhaps the
most effective measure in preventing the mass flight we are seeing
now.
Russia, on the other
hand, has a very clear aim: It wants to keep the mass-murderer Assad
in office and strengthen his regime. It's a goal that Moscow is
pursuing with few scruples.
The West, for its
part, is now out of cards to play to apply pressure on Putin, and we
will instead have to resign ourselves to the fact that Syria will
remain a failed state, under Assad's leadership. Ukraine, which
enthusiastically turned to the West two years ago, is also on the
verge of being lost, with the corrupt elite and the war in the east
making life difficult for reformers. There, too, Russia has a clear
goal -- that of destabilizing the country -- and it is deploying
weapons and soldiers to realize that aim. The West, on the other
hand, lacks the resolve needed to back Ukraine.
Credible Pressure
Needed
The Kremlin's
threats, the strategic defeats against Putin and the fear of an armed
conflict are now strengthening those in the West who wish to settle
with Russia, no matter how high the price. Some German politicians
would like to see sanctions against Russia lifted without getting
anything in return. The latest trip by German politician Horst
Seehofer -- governor of economic powerhouse Bavaria and the most
vocal detractor of Merkel's refugee policies despite his Christian
Social Union party being allied with her Christian Democrats -- also
created the false impression that everything can be resolved by just
exchanging more dialogue with Russia and voicing less criticism,
ignoring the fact that a lack of talk is not the problem. With his
visit and his cozying up to Putin, he allowed himself to become a cog
in the wheel of Russia's propaganda machine.
The lessons from
Syria and Ukraine are that the opposite is true: All attempts to move
Russia through rapprochement and flattery have failed. The only thing
that will impress Putin and move him to cooperate is credible
pressure from the West. In Ukraine, he hadn't expected the harsh
sanctions imposed by the West -- and it was only through those
punitive measures that further Russian aggression could be stopped.
Such clarity, however, has been missing when it comes to Syria. On
the contrary, some Western politicians, unfortunately, even welcomed
Putin's intervention.
This lesson is
important. The West has underestimated Russia and must expect further
foreign policy adventures from Moscow, be it in Eastern Europe or in
its already tense relationship with Turkey. Putin needs these
adventures in order to maintain his popularity, even though his own
people are becoming poorer. If the West wants to avoid being
outmaneuvered again in future conflicts, it cannot allow itself to be
intimidated -- and neither can it strive for appeasement. The West
must counter these attacks on the world order in a united way.
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