Brexit is sideshow to Angela Merkel’s refugee drama

Brexit is sideshow to Angela Merkel’s refugee drama

EU faces an existential threat, but its leaders debate U.K. domestic politics.

By MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG 2/19/16, 4:00 PM CET

http://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-sideshow-to-angela-merkels-refugee-drama-european-council-david-cameron/

Brussels was host to European political theater at its finest last night.

David Cameron, the public school boy turned prime minister, shined in the role of truculent rebel “battling for Britain.”

A motley bunch of Old- and New Europe baddies took center stage as his nemeses, cornering him in the recesses of the labyrinthine European Council headquarters until daybreak.

All that was missing was the leading lady. Angela Merkel, a Wagner aficionado with little patience for farce, drew a curtain on her performance just after 3 a.m.

Merkel knows that for Cameron the “three-shirt” summit is more about symbolism than substance

That’s usually when the German leader hits her stride. A night owl, Merkel is famous for pushing hairy negotiations until there is a deal, ignoring the clock.

Nothing better captured the extent to which Cameron’s Brexit Showdown has devolved into a sad sideshow than the sight of the German leader leaving Cameron alone at the summit to fend for himself.

Yes, Merkel played her part, dutifully reciting the platitudes about the importance of Britain remaining and that Berlin continued to stand with the U.K.. The necessary compromises though “painful” for some members, were necessary, she insisted, quoting the minutiae of the U.K.’s four “baskets” of demands chapter and verse.

But Merkel knows that for Cameron the “three-shirt” summit is more about symbolism than substance. Cameron needs to leave Brussels bruised and battered, having fought a hard fight.

What’s more, the U.K.’s referendum, still months away, won’t be decided by the number of years migrants have to work before winning access to social benefits, but by factors well beyond Merkel’s scope of influence.

In Merkel’s world, the refugee crisis represents the far greater threat to both Europe’s and her own future.

Losing control

Before heading out, Merkel told reporters the evening’s most important outcome was that all countries had agreed that enlisting Turkey to help reduce the influx of refugees should be the EU’s “priority.”

“The urgency to accelerate this is definitely there,” she said.

During a marathon dinner to discuss migration, Merkel pushed through an extraordinary summit with Turkey at the beginning of March.

Ankara is her last hope.

With spring fast approaching and refugee numbers again expected to increase, Merkel needs to find a solution fast. She is keen to show progress before mid-March, when Germany holds three regional elections that risk turning into a proxy on her refugee strategy. The right-wing Alternative for Deutschland party has been surging in the polls amid the growing backlash against refugees.

Meantime, one country after another has begun tightening its border controls. Countries along the so-called Balkan route stretching from northern Greece toward Germany plan to organize special trains to take refugees directly to the Bavarian border.

Merkel downplayed the plans early Friday, saying the refugees’ mode of transportation was not important. Yet images of trainloads of Syrians traveling from Macedonia to Germany would further stoke the debate in Germany, reinforcing concerns that Merkel has lost control of the situation.

Most worrying for Berlin is Austria. Germany’s Alpine neighbor, once Merkel’s staunchest ally in the crisis, threw the Brussels summit into disarray late Thursday by announcing it would limit the number of asylum applications it would accept to 80 per day, further isolating Germany.

“Experience shows that the Council can’t deal with two problems at once” — Alain Lamassoure, MEP.

Vienna also plans to reintroduce border controls on the Brenner pass, its mountain frontier with Italy and the most important north-south trade route in Europe.

With the Schengen agreement on open borders collapsing, the refugee flow showing no signs of abating and little willingness on the part of other EU countries to take in asylum seekers, Brexit is nothing more than a minor nuisance for Merkel.

Some worry it has become too much of a distraction. Instead of addressing the existential threat to the EU — refugees — leaders are holed up in windowless rooms in Brussels discussing how to place limits on child benefits for Poles working in the U.K.

“Europe’s major problem is the refugee crisis,” Alain Lamassoure, a former French secretary of state for Europe who now sits in the European Parliament, told Les Echos. “Experience shows that the Council can’t deal with two problems at once. We will therefore lose time discussing problems that are domestic U.K. political issues and no solution will be found for the refugee crisis.”

Authors:

Matthew Karnitschnig