Charlemagne
A
graveyard of ambition
Turkey
is where European foreign policy went to die
Feb 20th 2016 | From
the print edition
ONE of Turkey’s
more forlorn sights is tucked down an Ankara side street inside the
EU affairs ministry. At the top of a small staircase lurks a poster
depicting a sprawling tree, its lower branches bereft and leafless
but its top half a lush burst of greenery. A caption explains the
symbolism: “Let’s bring a dynamic industry, young workforce and
unique cultural diversity to freshen and revive the European Union.
By welcoming Turkey.”
This relic speaks of
a happier time, when Turkey was confident enough in its bid for EU
membership to present itself as a tonic to a tired continent. Travel
around the country today, as Charlemagne did last week on a trip
organised by the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank,
and you encounter a different mood. For many Turks opposed to the
ruling Justice and Development (AK) party, the EU’s name means
betrayal.
In Istanbul liberals
lament that Europe turns a blind eye to the authoritarian habits of
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a president with a penchant for beating up
journalists and tampering with the judiciary. Refugees in Gaziantep,
near Syria, do not understand why Germany worries more about the
migrants reaching rich Europe than the hundreds of thousands of
Syrians facing death at the hands of Bashar al-Assad and his Russian
enablers. Kurds in the south-east say that Angela Merkel, Germany’s
chancellor, ignores the plight of towns like Cizre, besieged by
Turkish troops.
Little wonder they
feel let down. Turkey’s south-east is a simmering cauldron of
violence. Since last summer Turkish forces and young rebels
affiliated with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) have been locked
in a spiral of violence that has left hundreds of civilians dead.
Cities are in lockdown; in Diyarbakir the air is thick with tear gas
and the crump of artillery. Locals warn of further escalation in the
spring, when battle-hardened fighters of the PKK leave their winter
redoubts in northern Iraq.
Elsewhere Mr Erdogan
continues his authoritarian march. Beset by allegations of corruption
in AK and opposed by former allies, he is single-mindedly pursuing a
constitutional change that would extend the powers of his presidency.
Terrified journalists censor themselves before government goons do it
for them. Public contracts reward friends; foes are fined for
supposed tax violations. Turkey’s political and ethnic cleavages
grow ever wider.
Meanwhile the region
is aflame. The fighting around Aleppo (see article), over the Syrian
border, has created a fresh stream of refugees. Desperate to stop
Syrian Kurds from expanding their territory along the border, Turkey
has begun shelling their positions. Russia’s escalation, and its
alliance of convenience with the Kurds, has weakened Turkey’s hand.
Mr Erdogan’s war of words with Vladimir Putin is dangerously
heated. Meanwhile America, a NATO ally, rejects Turkish demands that
it disown the Syrian Kurds, who are useful in fighting Islamic State
(IS). A car bomb which killed at least 28 people in Ankara on
February 17th showed that the violence is spreading to Turkey’s
heartland.
It is easy to see
why Europe’s refugee problem might not be at the top of Turkey’s
in-tray. Europeans optimistically say that Turkey’s troubles
present them with an opening, for Mr Erdogan needs friends. But that
misreads the view from Ankara. In Syria Mr Erdogan wants to smash the
Kurds and hold the line against Mr Assad; at home he seeks to
consolidate his rule and squeeze the opposition. The EU is not able
to help him achieve these goals. And so, while leaders like Mrs
Merkel (rightly) praise Turkey for welcoming 2.5m Syrians onto its
soil and express sympathy for its strategic predicament, Mr Erdogan
responds with insults and threatens to bus millions of refugees to
Greece and Bulgaria.
The Europeans will
have to accept such tough talk in their bid to secure Turkish help to
reduce the migrant flow. The EU’s promise of visa-free travel for
Turks in exchange for a cut in the number of migrants, agreed on late
last year, is a genuine prize for the Turks (“Visiting Germany is
harder than buying land in heaven,” says one). But Europe is in a
rush, and Mr Erdogan is not. Hence Mrs Merkel’s endless meetings
with Turkish officials. Hence the EU’s willingness to overlook Mr
Erdogan’s excesses. And hence the sense of betrayal among his
domestic antagonists. “We need pressure from outside,” says Firat
Anli, the co-mayor of Diyarbakir. “Otherwise we see where the
state’s reflexes lead.”
An insincere
invitation
In this telling, the
Europeans might be able to blunt Mr Erdogan’s sharper edges if only
they were brave enough to shed their hypocrisies. Certainly the EU
was once a force in Turkish politics. In the early years of AK rule
it was a useful anchor for Mr Erdogan’s economic and legal reforms,
and an ally in his battle against Turkey’s old secular elite and
their friends in the army.
Yet the EU lost its
clout years ago. Soon after membership talks began in 2005, Turkey
fell victim to the sharp tongue of Nicolas Sarkozy, a former (and
possible future) French president who once dismissed Turkey as part
of “Asia Minor”, and the veto-wielding Cypriot government, which
was let into the EU before solving its own Turkish problem. When
Turkish citizens realised that accession was going nowhere, they lost
interest. And once Mr Erdogan had got what he wanted from the
process, he discarded it and moved on. Pro-EU Turks were left adrift.
They have not lost
hope. Support for membership is climbing as Mr Erdogan tightens his
grip, and at least Turkey and Europe are talking again. Turkey’s
local troubles have left it more dependent on EU markets and
investment. Even the stand-off on Cyprus may be near a solution. Had
Europe pledged a decade ago to allow Turkey’s application to go
forward, and convinced Ankara (and itself) that membership was a
realistic prospect, it might not find itself so helpless today. Last
year’s deal may have been grubby and it may turn out to be
pointless, but by the time it was signed, the EU had nothing left to
lose. It is hard to think of a stronger indictment of Europe’s
foreign policy.
From the print
edition: Europe
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