China-US carbon deal: A historic milestone in the global fight against climate change. / US-China climate deal boosts global talks but Republicans vow to resist. / GUARDIAN. Acordo entre EUA e China lança nova fase na diplomacia climática.

China-US carbon deal: A historic milestone in the global fight against climate change

After 20 years of tortuous negotiations the agreement struck by the US and China marks the start of a solution to global warming

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Damian Carrington

Wednesday 12 November 2014 10.35 GMT / http://www.theguardian.com/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2014/nov/12/china-us-carbon-deal-a-historic-milestone-in-the-global-fight-against-climate-change

Be in no doubt, the agreement struck by the US and China on Wednesday to cut their carbon emissions is historic. It is the biggest step towards achieving a meaningful global deal to fight climate change in 20 years of tortuous negotiations. But also be in no doubt that, while absolutely necessary, it is a long way from being sufficient. As President Barack Obama says, it is a “milestone” – a marker on a longer journey.

Without sharp and rapid cuts in greenhouse gases the world faces “severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts” on people and the natural natural world: floods, droughts and even wars. That conclusion from the world’s scientists was signed off on 2 November by 194 nations.

But no progress was going to happen without the world’s two biggest polluters, the US and China. The deal they have struck has the potential to end the stand-off that doomed efforts to sign a global deal in Copenhagen in 2009. That coalition of the unwilling is now becoming a coalition of the willing.

The difficulty of tackling climate change cannot be underestimated. Emissions now mean damage later, making it tempting to stall. It is a “global commons” problem - the solution requires all nations to act together, not alone. Moreover, in practical terms, it requires re-engineering the entire world’s energy system, which is itself the engine of the global economy. And there’s the huge challenge of solving global poverty along the way.

With so much at stake, the negotiations are the among the toughest the world’s nations have ever undertaken. But, put bluntly, it’s a haggle. There is a limit to how much CO2 can be pumped into the atmosphere before dangerous climate change becomes inevitable. The bartering is over how much of that remaining space each nation deserves to get.

The significance of the China-US deal is that they have now put their first serious offers on the table. In fact they have done so early – the deadline for these bids set by the UN was March 2015. The deadline for a final global deal is December 2015 in Paris. Until now, it was unclear that deal would be done. But the US-China agreement has injected that most precious and rare of commodities into global climate negotiations: momentum.

There is a long way to go yet. The measures announced by the US and China fall well short of what is needed to defeat global warming. The key, as in any haggle, is to keep upping the bids.

Obama said the US pledge to cut carbon by 26-28% by 2025, compared to 2005 levels, would double the pace at which it is reducing its emissions. But it’s a smaller cut than that agreed in October by the EU. Its 40% cut by 2030 is compared to a higher baseline of 1990. China has pledged to get 20% of its power from zero-carbon sources by 2030. But is already on track for 15% by 2020.

The signal that these are opening bids is in the qualifying language. China’s emissions will reach their peak by 2030 “or earlier”. The EU’s carbon cut is “at least” 40%.

The US-China deal is also highly significant in the clear signal it sends to the energy industry, who will invest trillions of dollars in the coming decades. China has said clearly for the first time that its huge hunger for coal will soon be sated. The US has said its wants to use less oil and gas, not more. Those are warning signs for today’s climate deal refuseniks, coal-rich Australia and oil-sand-rich Canada, and their fossil fuel friends.

Instead, the US-China deal points to clean and renewable energy as the place for the smart money to go. China’s pledge of 20% clean energy by 2030 means 800-1,000GW of new wind, solar, nuclear and other zero-emission technology. That addition alone is about the same size as the entire US electricity sector today.

John Kerry, US secretary of state, provided a clear-headed summary of Wednesday’s US-China agreement. “There is no question that all of us will need to do more to push toward the de-carbonisation of the global economy. But in climate diplomacy, as in life, you have to start at the beginning, and this breakthrough marks a fresh beginning.”

Finally, 25 years after the world was first warned that global warming was a serious problem, we have reached the start of the solution.

US-China climate deal boosts global talks but Republicans vow to resist

US to double pace of emissions cuts, China to cap carbon pollution by 2030

Senator McConnell: deal means ‘higher utility rates and far fewer jobs’

Suzanne Goldenberg in Washington, Lenore Taylor in Canberra and Tania Branigan in Beijing

The Guardian, Wednesday 12 November 2014 / http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/12/us-china-climate-deal-boosts-global-talks-but-republicans-vow-to-resist

A secretly negotiated agreement between the US and China to lower greenhouse-gas output faced a wall of opposition on Wednesday from Republicans in Washington, who threatened to use their control of both houses of Congress to thwart the plan.

Under the deal, unveiled unexpectedly in Beijing early on Wednesday, China committed for the first time to cap its output of carbon pollution by 2030. Beijing also promised to increase its use of zero-emission energy sources, such as wind and solar power, to 20% by 2030.

The United States agreed to double the pace of the cuts in its emissions, reducing them to between 26% and 28% below 2005 levels by 2025.

The deal struck between President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, provides an important boost to efforts to reach a global deal to fight climate change at a United Nations meeting in Paris next year. The accord also removes the Republicans’ main rationale for blocking Obama’s efforts to cut carbon pollution – the claim that China is unwilling to undertake similar cuts.

But Republicans in the US Congress reacted strongly against the deal on Wednesday. The party already held a majority in the House of Representatives, and the midterm elections last week also delivered them control of the Senate, where the Republican leader, Mitch McConnell, said Obama would not be in the White House long enough to see the plan through.

“This unrealistic plan, that the president would dump on his successor, would ensure higher utility rates and far fewer jobs,” he said.

In his first meeting with the incoming Republican majority, McConnell, who represents the coal state of Kentucky, said he was “distressed” at the deal, adding that the diplomatic breakthrough would have no effect on his disdain for international climate negotiations.

“As I read the agreement it requires the Chinese to do nothing at all for 16 years while these carbon emissions regulations are creating havoc in my state and around the country,” he said.

The Republican speaker of the House, John Boehner, also attacked the deal, and suggested he would move legislation to further limit Obama’s ability to deliver the carbon pollution cuts he promised.

The White House has said the US can deliver the promised reductions in greenhouse gas emissions through existing regulations, including the Environmental Protection Agency’s new rules for power plants, which are the core of Obama’s climate agenda.

But Boehner said: “Republicans have consistently passed legislation to rein in the EPA and stop these harmful policies from taking effect, and we will continue to make this a priority in the new Congress.”

Jim Inhofe, the Oklahoma Republican and climate denier who is poised to take over the Senate environment and public works committee in January, said China’s end of the bargain was just a ploy to buy time.

“It’s hollow and not believable for China to claim it will shift 20% of its energy to non-fossil fuels by 2030 and a promise to peak its carbon emissions only allows the world’s largest economy to buy time,” he said. “As we enter a new Congress I will do everything in my power to rein in and shed light on the EPA’s unchecked regulations.”

President Obama hailed the deal at a joint press conference with his Chinese counterpart at the Great Hall of the People. “As the world’s largest economies and greatest emitters of greenhouse gases we have special responsibility to lead the global effort against climate change,” he said. “I am proud we can announce a historic agreement. I commend President Xi, his team and the Chinese government for the commitment they are making to slow, peak and then reverse China’s carbon emissions.”

President Xi said: “We agreed to make sure international climate change negotiations will reach agreement as scheduled at the Paris conference in 2015 and agreed to deepen practical cooperation on clean energy, environmental protection and other areas.”

The early opposition in Washington raised questions about whether the US and China will be able to deliver on their respective commitments. Obama administration officials argue the new US target is achievable under existing laws.

But with Republicans in control of Congress, there is virtually no prospect of new climate legislation, and there could be delays that would weaken regulations put in place by the EPA before they come into force. “The US target looks like it’s going to be really tough to meet without new laws,” Michael Levi, an energy and environment fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in a blog post.

“The EPA power plant rules as they’re currently proposed are already spurring plenty of pushback; pressing them further will be a tall political and technical task. In particular, it’s near-impossible to imagine achieving these goals simply with actions taken during the Obama administration. President Obama’s administration may have developed and negotiated these numbers, but his successor will determine whether they’re achieved.”

China also faces technical challenges to reaching its targets.

The White House said in a statement that China could reach peak emissions even earlier than 2030 “based on its broad economic reform programme, plans to address air pollution and implementation of President Xi’s call for an energy revolution”.

But the White House acknowledged it would be more difficult for China to scale up to 20% energy from zero-emission sources by 2030.

“It will require China to deploy an additional 800-1,000 gigawatts of nuclear, wind, solar and other zero-emission generation capacity by 2030 – more than all the coal-fired power plants that exist in China today and close to total current electricity generation capacity in the United States,” the White House said.

Some campaign groups also pointed out that the agreement – while ambitious – still did not go as far as scientists say is needed to limit dangerous warming.

The European Union has already endorsed a binding 40% greenhouse gas emissions reduction target by 2030.

Diplomats said they hoped that the US-China deal would provide momentum to climate negotiations.

Officials are to meet in Lima at the end of the month to begin the last phase of negotiations for a global deal to cut emissions in Paris. As part of those talks, countries will also be preparing to put forward their own targets for cutting emissions by early 2015.

Herman Van Rompuy, the president of the European Council, and Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, urged other countries to show their hand on emissions cuts: “We welcome the announcement today by the presidents of the United States and China on their respective post-2020 actions on climate change.

“The announcements to date cover around half of the global emissions. We urge others, especially the G20 members, to announce their targets in the first half of 2015 and transparently. Only then we can assess together if our collective efforts will allow us to fulfil the goal of keeping global temperature increases well below 2C.”

Tao Wang, climate scholar at the Tsinghua-Carnegie Center for Global Policy in Beijing, said: “It is a very good sign for both countries and injects strong momentum [into negotiations] but the targets are not ambitious enough and there is room for both countries to negotiate an improvement.

“That figure isn’t high because China aims to reach about 15% by 2020, so it is only a five percentage point increase in 10 years, and given the huge growth in renewables it should be higher.”

Andrew Steer, president of the World Resources Institute, which promotes sustainable resource management, said the announcements would “inject a jolt of momentum in the lead-up to a global climate agreement in Paris”.

“It’s a new day to have the leaders of the US and China stand shoulder to shoulder and make significant commitments to curb their country’s emissions,” he said

Acordo entre EUA e China lança nova fase na diplomacia climática

RICARDO GARCIA 12/11/2014 – PÚBLICO

Depois de anos sob a aura de andarem de costas voltadas, Estados Unidos e China trocaram nesta quarta-feira um aperto de mão histórico na luta contra as alterações climáticas.

Os presidentes Barack Obama e Xi Jinping assinaram, em Pequim, uma declaração conjunta na qual anunciam metas para reduzir as emissões de gases com efeito de estufa, que estão a aquecer o planeta. Mas a iniciativa vale mais pelo que simboliza do que pelo conteúdo em si.

Os Estados Unidos dizem que “pretendem” reduzir as suas emissões em 26% a 28% até 2025, em relação aos níveis de 1990, fazendo “todos os esforços” para atingir a meta mais elevada.

Já a China afirma que “pretende” atingir o seu valor máximo de emissões “em torno de 2030” e aumentar para 20%, até essa data, o peso da energia que não venha da queima de combustíveis fósseis – ou seja, renováveis e nuclear.

“Este é um grande marco nas relações Estados Unidos-China e mostra o que é possível quando trabalhamos juntos num desafio global urgente”, disse o Presidente Obama, numa conferência de imprensa à margem de um encontro bilateral com o seu homólogo chinês, após à cimeira do Fórum para a Cooperação Económica da Ásia-Pacifico, em Pequim.

Os dois países somam cerca de 44% das emissões globais de CO2 – o principal vilão do aquecimento global. “Temos uma responsabilidade especial em liderar os esforços globais contra as alterações climáticas. Estou orgulhoso que possamos anunciar um acordo histórico”, acrescentou Obama.

"O chão e não o tecto"

As promessas em si não são suficientes perante aquilo que é necessário para travar o termómetro global. Há pouco menos de duas semanas, o Painel Intergovernamental para as Alterações Climáticas (IPCC, na sigla em inglês) divulgou um relatório no qual diz que é preciso reduzir as emissões de CO2 em 40% a 70% até 2050 e a zero em 2100, de modo a evitar que a temperatura média global suba a níveis que seriam catastróficos para a humanidade – ou seja, 2oC acima dos valores pré-industriais.

O mundo está, no entanto, longe disso. Segundo a mais recente avaliação da Agência Internacional de Energia, divulgada nesta quarta-feira, se não houver novas políticas climáticas e energéticas, as emissões da queima de combustíveis fósseis poderão aumentar em cerca 20% até 2040. Com isso, a temperatura subirá 3,6 oC até ao final do século.

“O anúncio de hoje [dos EUA e da China] deve ser apenas o chão e não o tecto das acções a tomar”, defende a organização ambientalista Greenpeace, num comunicado.

O acordo foi, no entanto, saudado com entusiasmo, por aquilo que significa na arena internacional. Juntos, os Estados Unidos e a China podem ajudar a desbloquear as negociações para um novo tratado climático, que deverá ser adoptado pela ONU no final de 2015, numa conferência em Paris, para entrar em vigor em 2020.

Ban Ki-moon, o secretário-geral da ONU, disse que o acordo representa “uma importante contribuição” para ser alcançado um resultado positivo em Paris. “Apelo a todos os países, em especial às grandes economias, para que sigam a via da China e dos Estados Unidos”, afirmou nesta quarta-feira.

O presidente do IPCC, Rajendra Pachauri, falou de “um desenvolvimento encorajador” e a Agência Internacional da Energia classificou a iniciativa como “um passo de gigante para a humanidade”.

“Estes dois importantes países anunciaram hoje um caminho crucial para um futuro melhor e mais seguro para a humanidade”, afirmou também a secretária executiva da Convenção Quadro das Nações Unidas para as Alterações Climáticas, Christiana Figueres.

Um novo caminho

Estados Unidos e China estão de facto a trilhar um novo caminho, mas não tanto no que anunciam. As metas norte-americanas coincidem genericamente com o que Obama espera do seu plano para conter as emissões das centrais térmicas para a produção de electricidade, anunciado em Junho. E a China já tem em marcha estratégias para aumentar a contribuição das energias renováveis e do nuclear, embora nunca até agora tenha admitido uma data para começar a reduzir as suas emissões de CO2.

O que é de facto novo é os dois países surgirem de mãos dadas no tema do clima, um sinal forte de que está a cair o muro que separava os países ditos desenvolvidos e as nações em desenvolvimento nas negociações climáticas. Historicamente, Estados Unidos e China colocavam-se em campos opostos. Washington não queria um novo acordo climático no qual as grandes economias emergentes não assumissem compromissos quanto às suas emissões de gases com efeito de estufa. E Pequim insistia em colocar-se na posição de país em desenvolvimento, apontando o dedo à responsabilidade histórica das nações ricas e torcendo o nariz à imposição de metas.

Agora surgem juntos a anunciar potenciais compromissos, com a deliberada intenção de “criar momento” para um bom resultado em Paris e de liderar o processo – um desejo já manifestado publicamente por Obama.

A União Europeia, que no mês passado se comprometeu unilateralmente a reduzir em 40% as suas emissões até 2040 e que também quer ser líder no processo, reagiu dizendo que o acordo “mostra que o apelo dos líderes da UE a 24 de Outubro para que os outros países avançassem rapidamente com as metas de redução das emissões de gases com efeito de estufa está a ser respondido”.