quarta-feira, 11 de fevereiro de 2026
Point of no return: a hellish ‘hothouse Earth’ getting closer, scientists say
Point of
no return: a hellish ‘hothouse Earth’ getting closer, scientists say
Scientists
warn that continued global heating is bringing Earth closer to a "point of
no return" where self-reinforcing feedback loops could lock the planet
into an irreversible "hothouse Earth" climate. Recent reports,
including the Global Tipping Points Report 2025, indicate that the world is
already at or near critical thresholds for several Earth systems.
Key
Findings from Recent Science
Recent
scientific papers, such as one published in the journal One Earth, synthesize
current findings to emphasize that the risk of a "hothouse Earth"
trajectory is greater than previously believed, primarily due to accelerating
warming and under-appreciated feedback mechanisms.
Accelerating
Warming: The rate of global warming has accelerated, partly due to the decline
in aerosol emissions which previously had a cooling effect that masked some
greenhouse gas warming.
Tipping
Point Thresholds: Scientists suggest that many climate models may not fully
capture the risk, as several Earth systems appear closer to destabilization
than once believed. The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 notes that
low-latitude coral reefs have likely already crossed an irreversible tipping
point.
Interacting
Feedback Loops: The main concern is a "domino-like" cascade where the
tipping of one system (e.g., melting ice sheets) triggers others (e.g.,
weakening ocean currents or Amazon dieback), creating a self-amplifying cycle
of warming.
Irreversible
Change: If this threshold is crossed, the transition to a "hothouse
Earth" state could result in temperatures around 4-5°C higher than
pre-industrial levels, a state that would be difficult to reverse on human
timescales even with deep emissions cuts.
Tipping
Elements at Risk
Scientists
have identified 16 Earth system components that could reach tipping points,
with 10 having the potential to accelerate global heating.
Ice
Sheets and Glaciers: Melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, as
well as mountain glaciers, reduces Earth's ability to reflect sunlight (albedo
effect), amplifying warming.
Permafrost
and Forests: The abrupt thaw of boreal permafrost releases trapped methane, a
potent greenhouse gas, while the dieback of the Amazon rainforest could turn a
critical carbon sink into a savanna.
Ocean
Circulation: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a key
ocean current, is showing signs of weakening, which could have major regional
and global climate impacts, including affecting the Amazon's stability.
Despite
the urgency, scientists emphasize that the situation is not entirely "game
over". Every fractional reduction in temperature rise helps limit damage,
and rapid, bold action to cut emissions and end fossil fuel use can still help
avoid the worst-case scenarios.
Point of no return: a hellish ‘hothouse Earth’ getting closer, scientists say
Point of
no return: a hellish ‘hothouse Earth’ getting closer, scientists say
Continued
global heating could set irreversible course by triggering climate tipping
points, but most people unaware
Damian
Carrington Environment editor
Wed 11
Feb 2026 16.00 GMT
The world
is closer than thought to a “point of no return” after which runaway global
heating cannot be stopped, scientists have said.
Continued
global heating could trigger climate tipping points, leading to a cascade of
further tipping points and feedback loops, they said. This would lock the world
into a new and hellish “hothouse Earth” climate far worse than the 2-3C
temperature rise the world is on track to reach. The climate would also be very
different to the benign conditions of the past 11,000 years, during which the
whole of human civilisation developed.
At just
1.3C of global heating in recent years, extreme weather is already taking lives
and destroying livelihoods across the globe. At 3-4C, “the economy and society
will cease to function as we know it”, scientists said last week, but a
hothouse Earth would be even more fiery.
The
public and politicians were largely unaware of the risk of passing the point of
no return, the researchers said. The group said they were issuing their warning
because while rapid and immediate cuts to fossil fuel burning were challenging,
reversing course was likely to be impossible once on the path to a hothouse
Earth, even if emissions were eventually slashed.
It was
difficult to predict when climate tipping points would be triggered, making
precaution vital, said Dr Christopher Wolf, a scientist at Terrestrial
Ecosystems Research Associates in the US. Wolf is a member of a study team that
includes Prof Johan Rockström at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research in Germany and Prof Hans Joachim Schellnhuber at the International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria.
“Crossing
even some of the thresholds could commit the planet to a hothouse trajectory,”
said Wolf. “Policymakers and the public remain largely unaware of the risks
posed by what would effectively be a point-of-no-return transition.
“It’s
likely that global temperatures are [already] as warm as, or warmer than, at
any point in the last 125,000 years and that climate change is advancing faster
than many scientists predicted.”
It is
also likely that carbon dioxide levels are the highest they have been in at
least 2m years.
Prof Tim
Lenton, an expert on tipping points at the University of Exeter in the UK,
said: “We know we are running profound risks on the current climate trajectory,
which we can’t rule out could turn into a trajectory towards a much less
habitable state of the climate for us. However, we don’t need to be heading
towards a hothouse Earth for there to be profound risks to humanity and our
societies – these will already be upon us if we continue to 3C global warming.”
The
assessment, which was published in the journal One Earth, synthesised recent
scientific findings on climate feedback loops and 16 tipping elements. The
tipping elements include the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, mountain
glaciers, polar sea ice, sub-Arctic forests and permafrost, the Amazon
rainforest and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), a system
of ocean currents that strongly influences the global climate.
Tipping
may already be happening in Greenland and west Antarctica, with permafrost,
mountain glaciers and the Amazon rainforest appearing to be on the verge, the
scientists said.
“Research
shows that several Earth system components may be closer to destabilising than
once believed,” they concluded. “While the exact risk is uncertain, it is clear
that current climate [action] commitments are insufficient.”
Prof
William Ripple, at Oregon State University, US, who led the analysis, said:
“The Amoc is already showing signs of weakening, and this could increase the
risk of Amazon dieback. Carbon released by an Amazon dieback would further
amplify global warming and interact with other feedback loops. We need to act
quickly on our rapidly dwindling opportunities to prevent dangerous and
unmanageable climate outcomes.”
Scientists
warned in 2018 of the prospect of a hothouse Earth. In this scenario, global
temperature stays significantly above the 4C rise of current worst-case climate
scenarios for thousands of years, driving a huge rise in sea level that drowns
coastal cities. The scientists said then that the “impacts of a hothouse Earth
pathway on human societies would likely be massive, sometimes abrupt, and
undoubtedly disruptive”.
EU moves closer to creating offshore centres for migrants and asylum seekers
EU moves
closer to creating offshore centres for migrants and asylum seekers
MEPs vote
to allow people to be deported to places they have never been to, as NGOs
express fears over new ‘safe third countries’ list
Jennifer
Rankin in Brussels
Tue 10
Feb 2026 16.38 GMT
The EU
has moved closer to creating offshore centres for migrants and asylum seekers,
after centre-right and far-right MEPs united for tougher migration policies.
MEPs
voted for legal changes that will give authorities more options to deport
asylum seekers, including sending people to countries they have never been to.
Under the
new rules, expected to apply from June, a person seeking asylum can be deported
to a country outside the EU, even if they have only passed through it, or to a
place to which they have no link, as long as a European government has signed
an agreement with the receiving state.
The vote
effectively underwrites Italy’s deal with Albania and the Dutch government’s
agreement with Uganda on the deportation of people whose asylum claims in the
Netherlands have been turned down.
In a
separate vote, MEPs also voted to create an EU list of “safe third countries”,
meaning that people from those places will face fast-tracked procedures and may
find it harder to claim asylum.
The list
includes all EU candidate countries, including Georgia and Turkey, where the EU
has expressed concerns about government crackdowns on the opposition in 2025.
The safe list also includes Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, India, Kosovo, Morocco
and Tunisia.
Rights
groups have raised the alarm about the inclusion of Tunisia, where President
Kaïs Saïed has cracked down on civil society and opposition figures have been
jailed for up to 66 years by politically controlled courts. Tunisian forces
have also forced back migrants to remote desert regions, where some have died
of thirst.
A
coalition of 39 NGOs said in a statement before Tuesday’s vote that designating
Tunisia as a safe country of origin deprived “Tunisian nationals of their right
to an individual, fair, and effective assessment of their asylum claims, while
giving the Tunisian authorities a renewed carte blanche to continue their
systematic violations against migrants, civil society and the wider civic
space”.
Alessandro
Ciriani, an Italian MEP, who led the European parliament’s work on the safe
countries of origin list, hailed the result: “This is the beginning of a new
phase: migration is no longer endured but governed.”
He said:
“For too long, political decisions in migration policy have been systematically
called into question by divergent judicial interpretations, paralysing state
action and fuelling administrative chaos.”
Ciriani
is member of Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, which has clashed with
Italian and European judges, who have ruled against the government’s
arrangements with Albania.
In 2024
an Italian court ruled that seven men at the Albanian facility would be
transferred to Italy, disagreeing with the safe country of origin argument
presented by Italy.
Italy had
argued that the men could be transferred to their “safe” home countries of
Bangladesh and Egypt, but the judges said there was a lack of transparency in
how safety was assessed.
The EU
has been tightening refugee rules since more than 1.3 million people claimed
asylum during the 2015 migration crisis, but the trend has accelerated with
electoral gains by nationalist and far-right parties.
In the
search for “innovative solutions”, EU leaders in 2024 endorsed the concept of
offshore return hubs – processing centres for people denied asylum in the EU.
The
rightwing Dutch government announced last September it had reached a deal with
Uganda to enable the deportation of Africans denied asylum in the Netherlands.
Denmark’s Social Democrat government had previously explored processing asylum
claimants in Rwanda, but never went ahead.
Last year
155,100 people risked their lives travelling in unseaworthy boats across the
Mediterranean, while 1,953 died or went missing, according to the UN refugee
agency.
The
deadly toll has continued in the first weeks of 2026. As many as 380 people
were feared drowned after a boat from Tunisia sailed into a cyclone last month.
Supporters
of the new measures argue they undermine the business model of people
smugglers.
“People
who genuinely need protection must receive it, but not necessarily in the
European Union. Effective protection can also be provided in a safe third
country, while individual assessment remains fully guaranteed,” said Assita
Kanko, a Flemish nationalist politician.
The
International Rescue Committee described the votes as deeply disappointing.
“The new
‘safe third country’ rules are likely to force people to countries they may
never have set foot in – places where they have no community, do not speak the
language and face a very real risk of abuse and exploitation,” said the IRC’s
senior advocacy adviser, Meron Ameha Knikman.
The two
laws were passed with strong support from the centre-right European People’s
party (EPP) and three nationalist and far-right groups.
The votes
were the latest sign of a new dynamic in the European parliament after the
election of a record number of nationalist and far-right MEPs to the right of
the traditional Christian Democrats in 2024.
While
critics accused the EPP of breaking the cordon sanitaire, voting lists revealed
a more complex picture. The centre-left was deeply divided, with significant
minorities of socialist and centrist MEPs voting in favour of the new laws,
while many centrists abstained.
EU moves closer to creating offshore centres for migrants and asylum seekers
EU moves
closer to creating offshore centres for migrants and asylum seekers
On
February 10, 2026, the European Parliament voted to approve landmark legal
changes that clear the way for offshore "return hubs" outside
European Union borders.
The key
developments include:
Legalized
Offshoring: The new rules allow member states to deport asylum seekers to
"safe third countries" even if the individual has no prior connection
or family link to that country, provided a bilateral agreement exists.
"Return
Hubs": These centers will host individuals whose asylum claims have been
rejected while they await final deportation.
Implementation
Timeline: The measures are expected to take effect in June 2026, coinciding
with the full implementation of the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum.
Italy-Albania
Model: The vote effectively provides a formal EU-wide legal framework for
arrangements similar to Italy's deal with Albania and the Netherlands'
potential agreement with Uganda.
Safe
Third Country List: Lawmakers also voted to establish a centralized EU-wide
list of "safe third countries" to fast-track asylum rejections and
deportations.
While
proponents argue these hubs will break the business model of human smugglers
and restore border control, Amnesty International and other human rights groups
have condemned the move as an "abdication of the EU's commitment to
refugee protection".
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