sexta-feira, 27 de março de 2026
Saudi Arabia urging US to keep up Iran attacks, intelligence source confirms
Saudi
Arabia urging US to keep up Iran attacks, intelligence source confirms
Crown
Prince Mohammed bin Salman said to view US-Israeli war as ‘historic
opportunity’ to remake Middle East
Julian
Borger and Aram Roston in Washington
Fri 27
Mar 2026 08.16 GMT
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/27/saudi-arabia-us-iran-attacks-mohammed-bin-salman
Saudi
Arabia has urged the US to ramp up attacks on Iran, a Saudi intelligence source
has confirmed, while it is weighing a decision on whether to join the fight
directly.
The Saudi
source confirmed reporting in the New York Times, which said the kingdom’s de
facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has urged Donald Trump not to
cut short his war against Iran, and that the US-Israeli campaign represented a
“historic opportunity” to remake the Middle East.
The
intelligence source said Riyadh was not just calling for the military campaign
to be continued, but to be intensified. Trump appeared to confirm the report
about the crown prince’s role, telling journalists on Tuesday: “Yeah, he’s a
warrior. He’s fighting with us.”
There are
no reports of active Saudi military involvement in the nearly four-week-old war
so far, but a Saudi political analyst said the kingdom was likely to take that
step if current peace efforts led by Pakistan failed.
“What
matters now is Iran’s decision,” Mohammed Alhamed, a Saudi geopolitical
analyst, said. “If Iran engages seriously, there is still a path to contain
escalation. If it rejects the conditions and continues its attacks, the
threshold for Saudi action will be crossed.”
Alhamed
added that Saudi Arabia “is not reacting impulsively”.
“It is
calibrating its response and preparing for a scenario where escalation, if it
happens, will be deliberate and decisive,” he said, adding that Saudi Arabia
“has not been pushing for war.”
“It has
been trying to avoid being drawn into it, while keeping all options on the
table,” he said.
Saudi
Arabia has come under Iranian drone attack, as part of Tehran’s response to the
US-Israeli attack on 28 February. One drone strike a week ago hit an oil
refinery in Yanbu on Saudi Red Sea coast.
Saudi
Arabia’s ability to transport its oil exports by pipeline to the Red Sea has
meant it is not as vulnerable as its neighbours to Iran’s tactic of imposing a
near-total blockade on oil tanker shipments leaving the Gulf through the strait
of Hormuz. The attack on Yanbu signalled an Iranian warning that it could also
threaten that economic lifeline.
That
threat would be multiplied if Iran’s allies in Yemen, the Houthi movement,
joined the war with its own missile arsenal.
“I
believe that Saudi Arabia still maintains cautious neutrality in the
Iran-Israel-US war,” Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi defence expert told Agence
France-Presse. But he added: “If the Houthis strike Saudi assets, Riyadh may
shift toward defensive coalition support or limited retaliation.”
Saudi
Arabia and Iran, claiming leadership roles of the Sunni and Shia Islamic worlds
respectively, have long been regional rivals. According to a leaked US state
department cable, the crown prince’s paternal uncle King Abdullah urged the US
military in 2008 to “cut off the head of the snake”, a reference to the
theocratic regime in Tehran.
Khalid
Aljabri, an exile Saudi commentator, said in recent years the kingdom’s
preference had been a negotiated solution to the standoff over Iran’s nuclear
and missile programmes. However, Trump and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin
Netanyahu, launched the joint attack in the midst of talks focused on nuclear
limits.
“In this
scenario, when the war occurs anyway and escalation is happening anyway, a
partially degraded Iran, a wounded lion, would be more unpredictable and more
dangerous. The policy was don’t start the war, but if you start it, finish the
job,” said Aljabri, who is also a US-based cardiologist and the son of Saad Al
Jabri, a former Saudi security chief who served as intelligence liaison with
Washington until he fell out of favour with Prince Mohammed in 2015.
The crown
prince solidified his hold on power by cultivating a close relationship with
Trump, but will now have to rethink Saudi reliance on the US for its security,
observers have argued.
“MBS
[Mohammed bin Salman] has lost the bet on all his investments over the last
several years,” Ellie Geranmayeh, senior policy fellow at the European Council
on Foreign Relations said. “He financially invested in Trump and Trump’s family
and his corporation and his White House, but at the end of the day the views of
the Saudis and of the whole Gulf have been sidelined by the wishes of Benjamin
Netanyahu.”
Prince
Mohammed had begun to recalibrate his position after a missile attack on a
Saudi oil facility in 2019, which Riyadh blamed on Iran. The US, under the
first Trump presidency, offered verbal support but did not carry out the
reprisals the Saudis were demanding.
Four
years later, Saudi Arabia tried detente by signing a surprise agreement with
Iran to restore mutual diplomatic relations, a deal brokered by China.
“After
the US refused to come to their defence, the Saudis pivoted to hug Iran close,
in the hope it wouldn’t lash out against them in a conflict,” Geranmayeh said.
“Now the war has started and MBS lost the bet that Iran wouldn’t retaliate, he
has reportedly urged the US to end the Iranian threat once and for all. So
Saudi Arabia is now facing the conundrum of whether to get more involved.”
The
United Arab Emirates has seen its oil exports comprehensively blocked and has
openly called for a decisive military defeat of Iran. The UAE ambassador to
Washington, Yousef Al Otaiba, wrote in the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday: “A
simple ceasefire isn’t enough. We need a conclusive outcome that addresses
Iran’s full range of threats.”
Saudi
Arabia, with its Red Sea export option, still has something to lose and has not
overtly called for more bombing. Its active military participation could bring
forth a more punishing Iranian response targeting its Red Sea oil pipeline,
quite possibly in collaboration with the Houthis.
“Once the
bombs stop falling there will be some deep thinking in Riyadh,” Geranmayeh
said. “It is not about pushing the US away but about having more options.”
