High
turnout in Portugal presidential runoff despite storms, floods
Abstention
rates could determine if center-left candidate António José Seguro or far-right
leader André Ventura becomes the country’s next head of state.
February
8, 2026 2:28 pm CET
By Aitor
Hernández-Morales
More than
45 percent of Portugal’s 11 million eligible voters had defied extreme weather
to cast their ballots in the second round of the country’s presidential
election as of 4 p.m. on Sunday, the National Electoral Commission reported.
Center-left
candidate António José Seguro, who won the first round of the election on Jan.
18, is facing off against far-right leader André Ventura in the first runoff in
a presidential election in Portugal in four decades. While polls conducted
earlier this month suggested the front-runner could pull off an easy victory,
the devastating storms that have hit the Iberian Peninsula over the past two
weeks have cast doubt on that outcome.
Low
turnout could favor Ventura, whose Chega party supporters have proven to be
reliable supporters in the last few elections. The ultranationalist group is
growing at a remarkable pace and the popularity of its anti-Roma,
anti-immigrant and anti-establishment rhetoric has led it to jump from having
just one lawmaker in parliament to being the country’s leading opposition party
in the span of seven years.
Participation
rates are substantially above those registered in 2021, when pandemic-related
restrictions led to a record-low turnout of 35 percent at the same hour. In
2016 participation rates were slightly over 37 percent of registered voters.
At least
14 people have died during, or in the immediate aftermath of, extratropical
cyclones Kristin, Leonardo and Marta, which have caused severe flooding from
the southern town of Alcoutim to the bustling northern city of Porto, where the
Douro River’s waters overflowed into the Ribeira neighborhood. Fierce winds
have knocked out the power supply to more than 100,000 homes across the
country, and the Portuguese Institute of the Sea and the Atmosphere has placed
all coastal municipalities under yellow alert.
Weather-related
interruptions of the country’s public transport networks could complicate
voters’ attempts to reach polling stations. Traffic is suspended on Coimbra’s
urban railway network and the railway linking Lisbon with seaside suburbs like
Estoril and Cascais is operating on a reduced schedule.
To
postpone or not to postpone?
Ventura
this week called for the runoff to be postponed, insisting the country was “not
capable of holding elections in this environment.”
Although 19 especially hard-hit municipalities — home
to 31,862 voters — have been given permission to delay the vote by one week,
polling stations are open everywhere else. Both outgoing President Marcelo
Rebelo de Sousa and the National Electoral Commission insisted postponing the
vote nationwide would contravene electoral law.
Center-left
candidate Seguro on Friday suggested Ventura was attempting to create confusion
over the status of the election because he “has many incentives to push for the
electoral demobilization of the Portuguese people.”
In a
televised address on Saturday evening, Rebelo de Sousa once again confirmed the
vote was moving forward and urged electors to “overcome the calamity” to cast
their ballots. Comparing the current conditions to those experienced when
presidential elections were last held in 2021 — in the midst of the Covid
pandemic — the outgoing president declared “voting means freedom, voting means
democracy, voting means Portugal.”
Consequential
vote
Portugal
is a semi-presidential republic in which the president serves as the country’s
head of state and has the power to appoint the prime minister and dissolve
parliament.
The
president also has the right to veto laws, ratify international treaties,
appoint some members of key state and judicial bodies, and issue pardons.
Moreover, as supreme commander of the country’s armed forces, the president
wields significant influence on Portuguese military deployments.
Although
Ventura performed strongly in the first round of voting, his likelihood of
becoming president has generally been considered low because moderate electors
on both sides of the aisle are expected to mobilize to stop him from becoming
head of state. The far-right leader has himself hinted that his presidential
run is actually meant to gauge support for his eventual candidacy for prime
minister.
But
António Costa Pinto, a political scientist at the University of Lisbon’s
Institute of Social Sciences, said if Ventura pulls off a surprise win, the
impact on the country’s political landscape would be enormous.
“In the
unlikely scenario that Ventura secured the presidency, there is little doubt
that he would use it to do everything to give his party control of the
government,” he said, adding that having the far-right leader as head of state
would “pose a serious threat to the institutional functioning of Portuguese
democracy.”
This
article has been revised to reflect updated turnout figures.
