Analysis
Rise of
far-right leader Roberto Vannacci challenges Meloni as she celebrates Italian
milestone
Angela
Giuffrida
in Rome
Futuro
Nazionale party’s speedy poll rise poses questions whether PM will return to
her roots before election
Thu 3 Sep
2026 15.25 BST
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/03/roberto-vannacci-far-right-party-futuro-nazionale-dilemma-meloni
Giorgia
Meloni’s government has become the longest-running in Italy since the second
world war – a milestone the prime minister is determined not to let pass
unnoticed.
In the
port area of Bari, the capital of the southern Italian region of Puglia, where
Meloni hosted the G7 in 2024 and where she spends her summer holiday,
preparations are well under way for a festival-style showcase of her rightwing
administration.
On
Friday, there will be food trucks, water stations and traditional Puglian light
shows as part of celebrations to entertain an expected crowd of 10,000 people
bussed in from across Italy. Militants from the youth wing of Meloni’s
far-right Brothers of Italy party have fanned the city’s squares and beaches
for days, handing out flyers promoting the celebrations while wearing T-shirts
featuring the official slogan: Il Governo più stabile, l’Italia più forte (the
most stable government, the strongest Italy).
Meloni,
who just a few weeks ago was booed at the opening ceremony of the Mediterranean
Games in Taranto, farther south in Puglia, will address the audience in the
evening, surrounded by her coalition allies – Matteo Salvini, the leader of the
far-right League, and the conservative Forza Italia’s Antonio Tajani.
“This
moment will be written in the history books,” said Michele Picaro, a Brothers
of Italy MEP and former Bari councillor. “We are the longest government in the
history of the Italian Republic and this must be celebrated.”
Meloni
gives press conference with Italian and EU flags behind
Beneath
the triumph, however, the outlook for Meloni is less settled. True, she has
enjoyed a political stability that eluded her predecessors. Brothers of Italy
is still the country’s biggest party. But in recent months, the political
landscape has shifted with the emergence of a challenger – not from the left or
the centre, but from someone who is even further to the right than Meloni.
Since its
launch in February, Roberto Vannacci, a former army general, has seen his
far-right party, Futuro Nazionale, rise to about 8% in the polls, surpassing
his former compatriots in the League months ago and this week eclipsing Forza
Italia, too.
Vannacci
first entered the public eye in 2023 after self-publishing a book filled with
racism, homophobia, Islamophobia and antisemitism. The subsequent backlash cost
him his army job, but propelled him to the top of the bestsellers list. Helped
along by ample coverage in the Italian press, he capitalised on the notoriety
and in 2024 was elected as an MEP for the League, later leaving Salvini’s party
to set up his own.
“I read
his book because I always think you need to know the enemy,” said Giulia
Pastorella, an MP and vice-president of the small centrist party Azione
(Action). “And I thought, this is exactly the kind of thing you might hear
people talking about in the bar. Here’s a military man, who is really a mirror
of the worst impulses of people. The scary thing is, I think he’s genuine and
not a PR construct.”
Vannacci’s
policies, such as they are, are extreme. Futuro Nazionale’s recently published
manifesto says that “abortion is not a right” and calls for gay people to be
banned from TV between 6am and 11pm so children aren’t exposed to what it
describes as “homosexualist” content. It also proposes introducing military
education in high schools and a “remigration” plan to remove irregular
immigrants and foreign nationals who commit crimes.
On
foreign policy, Vannacci has campaigned to stop weapons and financial aid to
Ukraine, saying if he could choose between Vladimir Putin or the Ukrainian
president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he would choose Putin.
In July,
he organised a “Futuristic Triathlon” in the northern seaside town of Sanremo,
billed as an event to “temper the mind and body” in an echo of the fascist
aesthetics and themes of the Mussolini era.
Far from
being a treated as a pariah, however, Vannacci’s party has proved moderately
successful, luring defectors from the three main ruling coalition parties. It
is also actively courting disillusioned voters from the Five Star Movement, a
key ally in a broad but perennially fractious leftwing coalition led by the
Democratic party.
For the
government, he represents a dilemma. Meloni, whose Brothers of Italy has
neofascist roots, has governed more moderately than many had expected,
cultivating a pragmatic and, crucially, pro-Ukraine image abroad while still
deploying hardline rhetoric on choice occasions for domestic audiences.
That
positioning, however, has left a vacuum on the far right that Vannacci has
exploited. The question now is: how will Meloni respond? Until now her ruling
coalition had mostly coasted along, propped up by a strong parliamentary
majority. Her government is largely regarded to have been fiscally prudent, but
has steered clear of major structural reforms. Instead, it has heavily focused
on security and continues to vigorously expand legislation on law and order.
“This
government has wasted the huge occasion that stability gave them,” said Lia
Quartapelle, an MP with the Democratic party. “None of the core issues have
been addressed – we have stagnant productivity and growth, salaries that have
lagged behind for many years and an education system that is not up to the
pace.”
Pastorella
said a focus on foreign policy had also contributed to Vannacci’s success.
“Meloni hasn’t really done much at home but has been very present abroad,” she
added. “The Italian electorate is tired of talking about foreign policy and
would rather discuss national politics – this is precisely what Vannacci has
understood.”
Picaro
batted away questions about recent polls. “This is a government that is more
used to working than looking at percentages,” he said, citing lower
unemployment, reduced irregular immigration, cutting taxes for the
self-employed and an initiative in the south to boost entrepreneurial
investment.
Pastorella
said that, far from being strong and stable, Meloni had struggled to keep her
coalition united while dealing with various scandals, including ones that led
to a tourism and a culture minister being forced to resign.
With the
possibility of an election as early as April, time is now of the essence for
the prime minister. In recent weeks she has pivoted back to hardline rhetoric,
most notably in her reaction to the influx of migrants from Morocco into the
Spanish north African enclave of Ceuta.
She is
also trying to push through a highly contentious electoral law that would give
a majority bonus to any alliance winning more than 42% of the vote, which
critics say is aimed at increasing her group’s chance of victory.
If
Vannacci continues to strengthen, Meloni might be tempted to accommodate him
before the vote, a move that would risk repelling moderate supporters. Or she
could clinch a post-election pact to maintain power, resulting in what many
both inside and outside Italy would see as a frightening shift to the extreme
right.
As
government supporters head to Bari, Alessandro Cattaneo, an MP with Forza
Italia, thinks it won’t come to that. “We in Forza Italia believe that Vannacci
is too far removed from our political culture,” he said. “It would not be
possible to govern with him … the coalition needs to continue to work seriously
for the remainder of this administration and explain better to people what we
have done. The best antidote to the extreme right is to show our seriousness.”
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