quarta-feira, 15 de julho de 2026
The American E.V. Has Been Crushed. Will It Take the U.S. Auto Industry With It?
The
American E.V. Has Been Crushed. Will It Take the U.S. Auto Industry With It?
The
largest U.S. automakers have backed away from electric vehicles, even as global
sales are booming. The decision may make them obsolete.
Matthew
Shaer
By
Matthew Shaer
Matthew
Shaer spoke with dozens of auto industry analysts and academics for this
article.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/07/15/magazine/electric-cars-american-evs.html
July 15,
2026
The first
sign of real trouble arrived two years ago, in the guise of an electric S.U.V.
so new it did not yet have an official name. Fast and capacious, sleek and
quiet, with plenty of comfortable seating and enough juice to carry a family
350 miles on a single charge, the vehicle was unveiled in May 2023, at a Ford
investor event in the Michigan factory town of Dearborn. “It’s beautiful,” Doug
Field, the head of Ford’s E.V. unit, promised the audience. “And it’s unlike
anything else in the segment so far.” A “personal bullet train,” he called it.
He had
good reason to be optimistic. Buoyed by billions of dollars in federal
investment in charging infrastructure and a generous $7,500 consumer tax
credit, the electric vehicle market in the United States had recently hit
historic highs, climbing from annual sales of roughly 490,000 in 2021 to more
than 800,000 in 2022 — an increase of approximately 60 percent. Many experts
believed that the United States was now poised to enter the fruitful second
phase of what’s commonly known as an S-curve, in which early interest in an
emerging technology gives way to widespread adoption. If they were right — and
data from other parts of the globe suggested they were — the rollout of a
long-range electric S.U.V. was more than savvy thinking. It was an investment in
the future.
And yet
the project seems to have been cursed from the outset. Unlike many of the
earlier Ford E.V.s, the “bullet train” was not merely a retrofitted version of
an existing vehicle with an internal combustion engine — ICE, in the industry
parlance. It was an entirely new car, requiring a large and complicated battery
to match the vehicle’s projected heft. In April 2024, Ford pushed back the sale
of the “bullet train” by two years, to “enable Ford to take advantage of
emerging battery technology”; that August, it confirmed it was killing it
entirely. “These vehicles need to be profitable,” Ford’s chief financial
officer, John Lawler, explained in a conference call with reporters. “If
they’re not profitable, based on where the customer is and the market is, we
will pivot and adjust and make those tough decisions.”
At the
time, his comments went relatively unnoticed. But it soon became clear that
Ford — which went on to retire the Lightning, an electric variant of its
best-selling F-150 pickup — was not the only manufacturer to have suddenly
developed a case of cold feet. In July 2024, General Motors said it was
delaying the introduction of a Buick E.V. S.U.V., and the following September,
Volvo dialed back plans for an all-electric lineup of vehicles that would have
debuted in the United States. In 2025, Dodge followed suit, axing a
battery-powered Charger and its long-anticipated E.V. Ram pickup truck. Two
plug-in hybrid Jeeps were sent to the scrap heap in the sky, as were several
e-sedans that Honda and Nissan had designed for the U.S. market. Acura pulled
the plug on an electric S.U.V. built at a G.M. plant in Tennessee.
The
cancellations accumulated at such a rapid clip that the industry press often
struggled to keep up: Late last year, for example, MotorTrend published an
effusive review of the BrightDrop, a cutting-edge electric van from Chevrolet.
The cargo hold of the vehicle was “cavernous,” the magazine’s writers noted
approvingly, and the pedal feel supple. As for visibility, it was akin to
“looking out of a giant terrarium.” The only problem was that the BrightDrop
was no longer available, having been discontinued by Chevy two weeks after its
press team dropped the thing off at MotorTrend headquarters. (“Well, this is
awkward,” the article begins.)
And the
carnage was far from over: Under the second Trump administration, the E.V. tax
credit was eliminated and tailpipe-emission standards were gutted, which more
or less instantly drove down sales of new battery-powered vehicles and
encouraged the so-called Big Three — Ford, G.M. and Stellantis North America,
the maker of the Dodge, Chrysler, Ram and Jeep brands — to refocus their
considerable resources on trucks and plus-size S.U.V.s. Assembly lines at E.V.
plants went dormant, and the battery plants that had sprung up around the
country in the Biden years were unceremoniously closed or repurposed for other
tasks, like the manufacture of industrial battery storage units. Thousands of
workers lost their jobs. One of them was Doug Field, the brain behind Ford’s
three-row “bullet train,” who departed the company this spring as part of an
internal restructuring.
In purely
financial terms, the combined cost of this industry about-face remains nothing
short of staggering: This year, Stellantis alone was forced to write down $26
billion in E.V.-related losses. (Ford reported a slightly less ghastly $19
billion loss.) But somehow, it’s the long-term repercussions that look worse.
“The way I’d put it,” the auto journalist Martin Padgett told me recently, “is
that we pulled a U-turn while the rest of the world was pushing forward.”
According
to the International Energy Agency, a Paris-based policy group, one of every
four vehicles sold globally in 2025 was battery-powered. Analysts with
Bloomberg have predicted that in the next decade, that number will more than
double, putting gas-powered cars — for the first time ever — in the minority of
overall new vehicle sales. Overseas, Asian and European manufacturers have
spent years preparing for this eventuality, dumping billions into the
development of battery technology. With predictable results: China now makes 75
percent of all E.V.s sold anywhere on earth. (The United States makes around 5
percent.) Many of those vehicles are produced by BYD, a Chinese company that
recently became the largest manufacturer of battery-powered cars in the world.
“Already,
the technological gap is getting dangerously wide,” says Stephen Ezell, a
senior economist with the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, or
I.T.I.F., a Washington-based nonprofit. “Today, China can get a new E.V. from
blueprint to launch about 33 percent faster than a U.S. company, give or take.
But that will accelerate, right? The speed of innovation, the speed of the
production cycles at these foreign companies, is just going to get faster and
faster. And at some point, the gap will get pretty close to fully impossible
for American automakers to close.”
For
Detroit, the timing could not be worse. Since the 1960s, the U.S. auto
industry’s once-dominant stake in the domestic car business has been slowly
chewed up by foreign manufacturers, sinking from a near monopoly of 92 percent
in 1965 to 46 percent in 2015. As of 2024, Ezell estimates, only a third of new
cars purchased in the United States were built by the Big Three. The E.V.
revolution was seen by its proponents as a way to reverse that trend. It was an
opportunity for Detroit to rediscover its capacity for ingenuity and to
re-establish credibility in an industry it helped to create.
Instead,
whipsawed back and forth by shifting political headwinds and afflicted by all
manner of self-enforced error, it appears to be in the process of sealing its
own doom — at the precise moment interest in E.V.s is surging in the United
States. In April, the analytics firm JD Power conducted a survey showing that
26 percent of prospective buyers in the United States were “very likely” to
consider an E.V. for their next car. And that was before the chaos in the
Strait of Hormuz helped push the price of unleaded gasoline to a four-year
high.
“We’ve
reached a genuinely existential moment,” Ezell told me. In a best-case
scenario, Detroit manages to meet it by crafting a viable, long-term E.V.
strategy while also servicing the still dependably lucrative existing market
for ICE trucks. In the worst, it retreats onto what the economist Susan Helper
calls a “shrinking island of ICE,” churning out outlandishly large trucks and
not much else. At which point, the obsolescence of the mighty U.S. automobile
industry — a sector once inextricably associated with American know-how and
economic might — would be all but guaranteed. As Ford’s chief executive, Jim
Farley, recently acknowledged in a statement that could apply to any member of
the Big Three, “If we don’t put our chips on the right number and the right
color, Ford could maybe not exist.”
“Is
Detroit resigned to its fate? Has it accepted the role of subordinate in the
world of cars?” Somewhat remarkably, these lines were not published this year
but nearly half a century ago, in 1983, in the last chapter of a book called
“The Decline and Fall of the American Automobile Industry.” Its author was the
legendary journalist Brock Yates; the eerily resonant topic was the threat
posed by a new breed of fuel-efficient Asian sedan — in this case, the Honda
Accord, which would go on to become one of the most popular vehicles ever sold
in the United States.
To Yates,
there was little question that the Accord was deserving of its popularity. The
vehicle was a “masterpiece,” he wrote, “the ne plus ultra of small cars.” But
he was far more interested in the Big Three’s reaction to its release, which he
characterized as alternately cocky and flat-footed. Trapped in their corner
offices, coasting on the fumes of earlier successes, many executives had hoped
that Americans would eventually go back to their preference for heavy gas
guzzlers. By the time they realized their error, Yates argued, Detroit had
found itself in a position analogous to today: lapped by outsiders, left
flailing in the wake of technological advances and cultural currents that it
should have anticipated — forced to play catch-up.
“I
remember it as basically all the stages of grief,” says Helper, who wrote her
1987 doctoral dissertation at Harvard on the rise of the Japanese auto
industry. Denial — how could the collective experience of Detroit come up short
against an overseas rival? Then anger. Why would anyone in their right mind
prefer a small car to a full-size one? Then bargaining, in the form of a few
ill-considered sedans designed to compete with the Accord and subsequently
rejected by consumers for being too pricey, too ugly and far too slow. Sales of
imports, meanwhile, were rising every year, as Honda and another Japanese
powerhouse, Toyota, established a bigger foothold in the U.S. market.
To the
Big Three — and to the American public — this was unacceptable. Detroit had
long been the defining force in American industry, contributing billions of
dollars to the domestic economy and regularly making up close to 5 percent of
the annual G.D.P. “When you think about it, it was the original American
start-up,” Ezell says. “I mean, look at what it unleashed in our society: The
Interstate highway system, the rise of the suburbs and so on. That’s the
coming-of-age story of our entire country.” It was a machine that had remade
cities and towns, lifted millions of Americans into the middle class and fueled
an array of downstream industries, from steelwork to the manufacture of radial
tires and antennas. It would have to be preserved, and the U.S. government
would have to help.
In the
early 1980s, under pressure from Detroit, President Ronald Reagan negotiated a
“voluntary” quota that restricted the number of Japanese imports that could be
sold in the United States; he also gave Toyota and Honda permission to build a
few factories in America, providing they were staffed by local workers. In
addition to stemming the loss of American jobs, these moves were designed to
buy time for the domestic auto industry — to allow executives to study (and
ideally, to ape) how the Japanese were able to produce their vehicles so
efficiently.
But even
with the assist from the White House, Detroit was never able to recover
anything like its previous market clout. In the United States, unlike Asia,
manufacturers had to contend with a layered corporate bureaucracy that hindered
innovation. More than that, they had to contend with their own history. In a
paper on the convulsions of the era, Helper noted that “problems of perception
— or of the failure to recognize that the world is changing — flow from the
fact that senior managers tend to become overly reliant on the mental models
and beliefs that undergirded the firm’s success in the first place.” A
well-grooved track can transform, with enough traffic, into a rut.
Through
the 1990s, sales figures continued to slide, as more foreign automakers
targeted U.S. consumers — Nissan, BMW, a Korean newcomer called Kia, all
apparently more in tune with what Americans wanted than the American companies
themselves.
What
recovery there was for Detroit came in fits and starts. The Dodge Neon,
introduced in 1994, was a smart and cheap clone of the top-selling Honda Civic
subcompact and a certified hit, generating millions in revenue. (“The Japanese,
then, had created a new American auto industry,” the authors Paul Ingrassia and
Joseph B. White quipped in “Comeback: The Fall and Rise of the American
Automobile Industry.” “In the end, Detroit decided to join in.”) And an
investment in the growing market in pickups, along with a focus on “shared
platform” vehicles — cars and trucks that used the same underlying
architecture, thus reducing production costs — helped the Big Three hit record
profits in 2000. Still, despite the stockpiles of cash it was accumulating,
Detroit entered the new millennium in a defensive crouch, low on innovation and
lower still on daring.
For every
Ford Focus — a compact car that sold well both domestically and overseas,
through a partnership with the Japanese company Mazda — there was an
embarrassing stumble, like the Dodge Avenger, a cartoonishly proportioned,
strangely underpowered pseudo-muscle car introduced in the European market in
2007 with predictable results. Rather than choosing to refine their export
strategy or encouraging their engineers to think more creatively, the Big Three
responded to these setbacks, as they would in 2024, by pouring more capital
into trucks and S.U.V.s. “Basically, the paragons of the American vehicle — the
sort of products that manage to persist even in the midst of financial messes
and industry catastrophes,” says Martin Padgett, the auto reporter. “It was
blinkered thinking, of course. It was an attempt to maximize profits.”
The
downsides of the approach became abundantly clear in the mid-2000s, when a
global energy crisis drove up the price of gas. To many American consumers, all
those heavy trucks were no longer so appealing — not if they were going to cost
a day’s pay to fill up. Sales of new S.U.V.s and pickups slid precipitously.
And there was little diversification to offset the losses: Of the small handful
of sedans and subcompacts that Detroit was still making, many had been plagued
with wiring and engine issues, requiring sweeping, expensive recalls to
rectify. (Today, the Big Three have all but fully ceded the category to foreign
manufacturers.) The rest were blandly designed, their cabins lined with cheap
and coarse plastics. “What we were seeing, I’d argue, was the
‘enshittification’ of American vehicles,” Padgett told me, referring to a term
coined by the technologist Cory Doctorow to describe a purposeful,
profit-minded degradation in product quality. “We were being told to expect and
accept less.”
Still, it
took the financial crisis of 2008, and the ensuing global recession, to truly
push Detroit to the brink. Americans stopped spending; reasonable auto loans
were close to impossible to find. In a single year, sales of new cars in the
United States fell by an astonishing 40 percent. Facing the very real prospect
of bankruptcy, the Big Three chief executives traveled to Washington to plead
for federal assistance. (They opted to fly private, a tragicomic detail that
did not go unignored by journalists or lawmakers.) Not everyone was in a
listening mood. As the presidential hopeful Mitt Romney wrote in a now-famous
editorial in The Times, there were plenty of good reasons to turn the
executives away. Assenting to a bailout, argued Romney, the Michigan-born son
of a former auto industry exec, was practically a guarantee that “automakers
will stay the course — the suicidal course of declining market shares,
insurmountable labor and retiree burdens, technology atrophy, product
inferiority and never-ending job losses.”
To
Romney, the solution was obvious: Allow the Big Three to go broke and push them
to rebuild more wisely. “The federal government,” Romney wrote, “should invest
substantially more in basic research — on new energy sources, fuel-economy
technology, materials science and the like — that will ultimately benefit the
automotive industry.”
But
Romney wasn’t in Congress. He didn’t get a vote. And in late 2008, after months
of pitched debate on Capitol Hill, President George W. Bush authorized the use
of Troubled Asset Relief Program funds to bail out the automakers. G.M. and
Chrysler were forced into a structured bankruptcy, and Washington allocated
$17.4 billion to keep them afloat. (Ford was in better shape, having mortgaged
its assets ahead of the financial crisis.) An estimated 1.5 million jobs were
preserved; sales gradually rebounded as automakers were pushed to embrace more
fuel-efficient options. “The auto industry has proved that any comeback is
possible,” President Barack Obama, who tied ongoing federal support for the Big
Three to a commitment to fuel efficiency, said in 2012. “And by the way, so has
Motor City.” Unfortunately, the comeback proved short-lived.
In
February 2008, several months before the Big Three chief executives threw
themselves on the mercy of the federal government, a Silicon Valley start-up
called Tesla unveiled its inaugural E.V., which it named the Roadster.
Effectively a Lotus Elise sports coupe with an electric motor in place of the
original four-cylinder engine, the car was far from the first E.V. to be built
in America: As early as the late 19th century, inventors had been experimenting
with battery-powered people carriers. But it was, as the car site Edmunds
noted, “the first car to prove that electric power and high performance need
not be mutually exclusive.”
The
Roadster had a range of 220 miles and traveled from a standstill to 60 m.p.h.
in about six seconds. The handling was supple, the torque neck-jerking. (Quite
literally: Many of the early articles on the car likened the driving experience
to being strapped into the cockpit of a fighter jet.) More important, it had
curb appeal. If the Toyota Prius resembled a hyphen on wheels, the Roadster was
Ferrari-pretty, with swooping curves, an aggressive stance and a removable
targa top. You could picture yourself piloting it through the undulating
switchbacks of a slot canyon.
No
matter, as Elon Musk later admitted, that the car “didn’t really work.” (As
with many first-generation E.V.s, the software was cantankerous, the
reliability abysmal.) Nor that the price tag — $150,000 in today’s dollars —
was out of reach for most consumers. The Roadster was a statement piece: an
advertisement for the E.V. industry writ large. And in subsequent years, Tesla
used what it learned in making the Roadster to develop the considerably more
affordable Model S — a sedan, as the cognoscenti at Top Gear magazine had it,
that “almost single-handedly forced mainstream manufacturers to embrace
electricity.”
In 2012,
Tesla sold fewer than 3,000 Model S sedans. In 2013, aided by a drumbeat of
positive press — including the top prize in MotorTrend’s Car of the Year
awards, a first for an E.V. — it sold more than 22,000. Other early E.V.s, like
the Chevrolet Volt and the Nissan Leaf, proved more popular still, to the
extent that G.M. had to revise its production capacity to keep up with demand.
And the fuel-efficient Toyota Prius — a hybrid that paired an ICE powertrain
with an electric motor — surpassed 200,000 in U.S. sales for the second year in
the row.
Encouraged
by the consumer response, the Obama administration proposed creating a $2
billion Energy Security Trust to fund the development of non-ICE vehicles.
“With more research and incentives, we can break our dependence on oil,” said
Obama, who predicted that by 2015, the United States would “become the first
country to have a million electric vehicles on the road.”
During
his second term in office, production and sales of E.V.s did indeed climb
steadily, flattening temporarily when fuel prices stabilized and reaching a
respectable 1 percent of the total U.S. new car market in 2016. But it wasn’t
until 2018 that the millionth E.V. was finally sold in the United States — by
which point the dynamics of the global market had been all but set. Even with
the temporary boost engendered by the Biden administration’s $7,500 tax credit,
American E.V. adoption, according to Pew, has repeatedly lagged behind the
international average of 25 percent of new car sales — to say nothing of the 53
percent recorded by China, or the 68 percent in Nepal. Last year, 97 percent of
all vehicles sold by dealers in Norway were electric. The United States has
stalled out at 10 percent.
The most
straightforward explanation for the discrepancy can be found in an innovative
paper published in 2024 in Green Energy and Intelligent Transportation, a
peer-reviewed journal. Titled “Barriers and Motivators to the Adoption of
Electric Vehicles: A Global Review,” the meta-analysis illustrated what compels
new-car buyers to go electric — and the fears, including “range anxiety,” that
kept them away. Tellingly, regardless of region and nationality, consumers were
far more likely to buy an E.V. if reliable incentive programs were in place.
Hence the rates of adoption in a place like Norway, which has long offered E.V.
subsidies — and the comparably pitiful numbers in the United States, which
adopted its own federal incentive program only to retract it three years later,
leaving both consumers and manufacturers in the lurch.
Executives
are “essentially being asked to maneuver a giant warship in a space that
changes every four years, if not every four days, in terms of tariffs,” says
Helper, the economist. For an industry that thinks in specific increments of
time, that’s a recipe for disaster. “Most legacy automakers put a business case
together up to four years ahead of launch, based on how many cars they expect
to sell and the price of goods and labor,” says Adam Bernard, a former G.M.
strategist and the founder of AutoPerspectives, a Michigan-based consultancy.
“You’re anticipating what everything will cost and where the vehicle will be
assembled. The price of steel. The price of computer chips. You’re making a
bet, but it’s an educated bet. You have to be able to gauge where things are
headed to get it right.”
And you
have to do it in an environment almost comically disadvantaged to widespread
E.V. adoption. The United States comprises roughly four million square miles of
forest, desert and farmland, strung together by 4.1 million miles of paved road
and an uncountable number of winding dirt lanes, making the construction of a
national charging network considerably more difficult than it would be in a
smaller country.
“If you
think the longest distance you’re going to drive on a regular basis is 50
miles,” Helper says, “you might not worry as much about that. But if you’re
regularly commuting sizable distances, like a lot of Americans, your anxiety
about battery life is going to be heightened.” Especially when the alternative
— an ICE vehicle — can run on fuel that is often not only more readily
available than a charging station but also deeply discounted courtesy of a
variety of indirect governmental subsidies.
In
general, Helper told me, “I think that sometimes people overlook what we’re up
against here. If you’re an automaker, you’re basically starting out with one
hand tied behind your back.”
This
year, a group of researchers combed through new E.V. registrations in the
United States and discovered that from 2012 to 2023, close to half of them had
been logged in the 10 most Democratic counties in the country, while a third
were made by buyers in ultraliberal enclaves like California’s Bay Area and
Cambridge, Mass. “Here’s where my pessimism comes from,” says Nate Jensen, a
University of Texas professor who studies the auto industry. “We had a rush of
early adopters, right? They lived in cities. They were tech savvy. But now
you’re asking: Well, OK, how do you get to the more marginal consumer, without
any incentives? How do I persuade a person with range anxiety, or who’s worried
about paying an electrician to rewire their house for the right charger?”
To a
large degree, the answer may reside with cost: In 2026, many E.V.s sold in the
United States are considerably pricier than the typical ICE car. But the more
investment Detroit makes in battery technology, and the more it experiments
with purpose-built E.V.s, rather than modified ICE cars, the cheaper those
vehicles will become. If some sort of price parity can be achieved, as it has
been in Asia and Europe — and if prices at the pump keep yo-yoing — the
hesitancy of many holdouts is likely to erode.
“I talk
to a lot of car dealers, a lot of automakers in the U.S.,” says Scott Case, the
chief executive of Recurrent, an E.V. analytics company. “And I think all of
them would agree with the statement that we’re headed toward a fully electric
future.” Good E.V.s, he pointed out, are superior products to ICE cars in
nearly every way: They accelerate faster; they’re quieter; maintenance costs
are lower. “The debate isn’t about that,” he went on. “The debate is about the
rate at which we’ll get there. The whole globe is aimed in one direction.”
Which to Case demonstrates that market receptivity is less of a lasting problem
than the quality of the cars themselves.
Next time
you’re driving on the highway, take a tally of the E.V.s hurtling past you.
Many will be built by Tesla. A few by Rivian, a California-based start up. But
a surprising number will most likely carry the badge of Hyundai, a Korean
automaker that last year sold twice as many E.V.s in the United States as Ford,
thanks in large part to several reasonably priced offerings, like the $35,000
Ioniq 5 compact.
“It’s
funny to me, because if you look at U.S. sales right now, the single hottest
category in E.V.s is the three-row, full-size electric S.U.V.,” Case said,
laughing, when I brought up the three-row “bullet train” unveiled by Doug Field
at the Ford investor event in 2023. “The Kia EV9 is totally crushing it. Toyota
and Subaru are both rushing out new three-row competitors. And the most
desirable cars in the used E.V. market are the Tesla Model X and the three-row
Model Y,” he said.
“Look, I
don’t envy of the job of the planners for these manufacturers,” he continued.
“But it just feels to me like the Big Three have been so overreactive to the
government swings and overreactive to small demand shifts — when, really, if
they had just picked a path and stuck with it, and hadn’t jammed the rudder to
one side, they would have been a whole lot better off.”
Predicting
the downfall (or resurgence) of the Big Three is practically a national sport.
There should be a semiannual award devoted to it. In addition to Brock Yates’s
“The Decline and Fall of the American Automobile Industry” (1983) and Paul
Ingrassia and Joseph B. White’s “Comeback” (1994), there is Micheline Maynard’s
“The End of Detroit: How the Big Three Lost Their Grip on the American Car
Market” (2003), Kenneth Whyte’s “The Sack of Detroit: General Motors and the
End of American Enterprise” (2021), as well as “Wrecked: How the American
Automobile Industry Destroyed Its Capacity to Compete” (2019), by the
sociologists Joshua Murray and Michael Schwartz. Throw in “American Icon: Alan
Mulally and the Fight to Save Ford Motor Company” — the reporter Bryce G.
Hoffman’s 2012 chronicle of the company’s efforts to recover from the bailouts
— and the apparently endless stream of academic papers on the topic, and you’ve
got enough reading material to last you years.
What kind
of books will be written about the current crisis? And what will they be
called? If history and the current industry headwinds are any indication, the
answer is probably something along the lines of “Should Have Seen It Coming:
How the United States Lost the Last of Its Automobile Industry to Asia.” As
Stephen Ezell, the I.T.I.F. economist, noted in a trio of white papers
published this year, manufacturers in Korea, Japan and China now dominate large
parts of the global car business.
For the
time being, China is being held back from the U.S. market courtesy of a 100
percent tariff on its E.V.s. But Mexico imposes no such tax on the Chinese, and
new data indicates that around 15 percent of new cars sold in that country are
made by the likes of BYD and Geely, another Beijing-based automotive
powerhouse. (“If you see a new car on the road here now, it’s likely to be
Chinese,” a Mexican analyst recently told The Financial Times. “We clearly
haven’t reached the peak.”) This spring, 2,900 Chinese E.V.s landed at a port
in Canada, where the government has lowered the tariff on the imports to 6.1
percent. In the next five years, the country could import as many as 70,000
more.
It may be
true, as Musk once warned, that if “trade barriers” were not established
against Chinese E.V.s, BYD and Geely would “pretty much demolish most other
companies in the world.” But our neighbors seem less concerned, and it’s a
short drive from Mexico to the United States, as evidenced by the flood of
social media footage of influencers carting their sleek new BYD sedans over the
border. Even if more restrictive measures, like a proposed bill in Congress
that would fully ban Chinese imports in the United States, were to pass to the
president’s desk for signing, China would still be able to exercise free rein
in the rest of the globe. (In June, Polestar, an E.V. company owned by Geely,
was informed by American regulators that it could no longer sell new cars in
the United States.)
And as
companies like BYD build more vehicles, refining battery life and efficacy,
they would steadily improve on an economy of scale. “They’ll be able to
innovate more rapidly and keep costs down,” Ezell told me. “Then there’d be us,
over here in Fortress America,” warding off the Chinese but not other Asian
manufacturers. “You also need to think about the side effects of protecting
yourself from China,” says Jensen, the University of Texas professor. “Yeah,
you preserve a bit of your market for now, but what happens to the products we
make? Are you going to want to go out, in 10 years, and buy a new Ford or G.M.
truck that has been completely shielded from real competition? Maybe not.”
The
“fortress” approach would leave the American auto industry isolated in more
ways than one. Left with masses of trucks and S.U.V.s unappealing to the rest
of the world, and reliant on domestic sales of gas-powered vehicles, Detroit
would inevitably be forced to shrink further. And this time around, Washington
might not come riding to the rescue. “I don’t know exactly who is going to be
part of Detroit 10 years from now,” Case says. “But I don’t think it’s going to
be the same as the companies that are here now.”
It’s not
necessarily too late to abandon hope: In the wake of the cancellation of the
“bullet train” and the F-150 Lightning, Ford has put its weight behind a line
of smaller, more affordable E.V.s that it hopes will prove more palatable to
American buyers. (The first of those cars, a light pickup, will retail for
around $30,000 and debut next year.) And in late June, Slate Auto, a start-up
backed in part by Jeff Bezos, began taking preorders for its own bargain
e-truck; prices start at less than $25,000. For that amount, says Slate’s chief
executive, Peter Faricy, consumers will “get the most beautiful, simplified,
E.V. pickup that’s ever been built. And it’s a game changer.”
But the
vehicles would have to be phenomenally successful to have a truly
transformative effect on a market that is no longer goosed by the federal tax
credit — or supported in any meaningful way by the Trump administration. Even
Tesla, which saw its European sales skyrocket in the early months of this year,
has watched its U.S. presence dwindle. (The backlash to Musk’s politics didn’t
help.)
To
Helper, a coherent national strategy is needed — and fast. “Coming from a
trailing position,” she and several colleagues note in a new paper, “America’s
Retreat in E.V.s: Economic Security, Prosperity and the Industrial Future,” “we
must establish a forward-looking agenda that invests in American innovation,”
starting with battery research, private-public partnerships and joint ventures
with Asian corporations.
In short,
the United States will require the same type of incentive and investment
programs that have paved the way for E.V. growth in other parts of the world.
“The
precedent that comes to mind for me is semiconductor chips,” Ezell told me.
From 1990 to 2020, he pointed out, China’s share of the global market increased
substantially, compelling the U.S. government to pass the CHIPS Act — a 2022
package of incentives for manufacturers that allowed the industry to rebound.
“We saved ourselves,” Ezell went on. “And I think something like that is the
only thing that saves Detroit — Congress wakes up and realizes we’re about to
lose this industry.”
Matthew
Shaer is a contributing writer for the magazine based in Atlanta. He often
writes about technology, politics and the American criminal justice system.
Seven Romanians arrested in human trafficking bust in Amsterdam's Red Light District
Seven
Romanians arrested in human trafficking bust in Amsterdam's Red Light District
Four
suspects were arrested in Amsterdam’s Red Light District and three additional suspects
were arrested in Romania during a coordinated international law enforcement
crackdown on human trafficking. The seven individuals of Romanian
nationality are suspected of belonging to a large-scale criminal network
that forced dozens of women into prostitution over multiple years.
Details
of the Operation
- Tactical Raids: Heavily armed and masked
police officers used battering rams and sniffer dogs to breach properties
on the Oudekerksplein and Oudezijds Achterburgwal, a
localized hub for window brothels.
- Targeted Arrests: Aside from the residential
property raids, specific arrests across Amsterdam included a bicycle taxi
driver and an individual detained inside the TrainMore gym on Oosterdok.
- Victim Assistance: Officers on the scene
immediately approached active sex workers believed to be victims of the
syndicate to secure protective statements and offer support.
Legal
Status & Investigation
- Restricted Custody: All suspects are being held in
strict isolation (restricted custody) and are legally barred from
contacting anyone except their defense attorneys. [1,
2]
- Bilateral Cooperation: The operation is part of an
expansive, long-term investigation managed jointly by the Amsterdam
Police and Romanian authorities.
Due to the
sensitive nature of the active investigation, Dutch law enforcement has
cordoned off portions of the district and stated that no further specific
details will be released to the public at this time
Seven Romanians arrested in human trafficking bust in Amsterdam's Red Light District
Wednesday,
15 July 2026 - 12:00
Seven Romanians arrested in human trafficking
bust in Amsterdam's Red Light District
The
police arrested seven suspects in connection with a large operation against
human trafficking in Amsterdam’s Red Light District. Four suspects were
arrested during raids in the Amsterdam neighborhood on Tuesday evening. Another
three were arrested in Romania, the police said on Wednesday.
The
police released no further details. According to Parool, the suspects all have
Romanian nationality and form part of a large pimp gang that allegedly forced
dozens of women into prostitution for years.
Masked
police officers armed with battering rams and sniffer dogs raided multiple
locations in the Red Light District on Tuesday evening, drawing many stares
from the tourists and locals in the popular area.
Parool
reporters saw officers raid a home on Oudekerksplein. They also raided several
properties on Oudezijds Achterburgwal, including a home situated between two
window brothel companies. Among the arrests in Amsterdam were the driver of a
bicycle taxi and a man pulled out of the TrainMore gym on Oosterdok.
Police
officers also approached sex workers whom they believe are victims of human
trafficking, asking them to give statements.
The raids
were part of a long, ongoing, and large-scale investigation into forced
prostitution in Amsterdam, working closely with the Romanian authorities. The
investigation is ongoing, and the police will not provide further details at
this time.
The
suspects are all in restricted custody, which means they are only allowed to
have contact with their lawyers.




