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Saudi Arabia's Red Sea oil pipeline knocked out by drone strikes: Analysis

 

Oil Prices Jump on Energy Supply Worries

 

Oil Prices Jump on Energy Supply Worries

Global crude oil prices jumped more than 3% in early trading on Monday, September 14, 2026, driven by a series of fresh military escalations in the Middle East that directly threaten major energy transport channels. Brent crude futures rose above $108 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures climbed past $103 a barrel, continuing a steep multi-day market rally fueled by deepening supply worries.

Key Drivers Behind the Price Spike

Market anxieties have intensified due to critical geopolitical disruptions:

• Saudi Pipeline Shutdown: The Saudi Arabian Energy Ministry closed its vital East-West pipeline as a precautionary measure following a Houthi militia drone strike. This shutdown puts a volume equivalent to roughly 4% of global oil supplies at immediate risk.
• Strait of Hormuz Bottleneck: Fresh Iranian attacks targeting shipping vessels have nearly paralyzed the strategic waterway. Crude flows through the Strait have plummeted from 8–9 million barrels per day down to below 2 million barrels per day.
• Houthi Territorial Advances: Iran-aligned Houthi forces have seized a strategic Red Sea island, the Yemeni port city of Mocha, and targeted infrastructure in Saudi Arabia's southern Jazan province.
• Diplomatic Stalls: A highly anticipated meeting between Iran and several Gulf Arab nations intended to de-escalate the crisis was indefinitely postponed, stripping away hopes for a near-term diplomatic breakthrough.

Analyst Forecasts and Market Scenarios

Financial institutions warning of tighter global supplies have adjusted their outlooks:

Financial Institution	Projected Scenario / Impact	Estimated Target Price
Goldman Sachs	If attacks on Middle Eastern shipping vessels continue to intensify	$120 / barrel
JPMorgan	Estimates a risk premium addition of $7 to $8 for every month the disruption persists	$114 / barrel (if disruption lasts 3 months)
Citi	Upgraded its Q3 baseline average due to prolonged timelines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz	$86 / barrel (up from $80)

 

Oil Prices Jump on Energy Supply Worries

 

Oil Prices Jump on Energy Supply Worries

By The New York Times

Sept. 13, 2026

 

Oil prices jumped and stock futures fell slightly on Sunday on concerns that energy supplies from the Persian Gulf would be further diminished by a drone attack on a critical pipeline in Saudi Arabia.

 

The Saudi Arabian Energy Ministry said it was closing the pipeline as a precautionary measure, but the shutdown came after reports that the Houthi militia had seized a strategic Red Sea island and a port city, which could further choke shipping in the area. Already, most shipping in the nearby Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, has been halted.

 

Adding to the uncertainty in the region, a planned meeting between Iran and several Gulf Arab countries it has attacked during the war was indefinitely postponed on Sunday.

 

The price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil, rose to about $108 a barrel, about 3.2 percent, when markets opened on Sunday.

 

West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, was up a little under $103 a barrel, about 2.9 percent.

 

Investors and analysts are focused on the continued disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that is a vital trading route for oil and natural gas. Before the war as much as one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passed through it.

 

Stock futures dip slightly.

Futures on the S&P 500 pointed to a small decline, a little over half a percentage point, when stocks resume trading in the United States on Monday.

 

Gasoline prices are steady.

Gas prices held steady over the weekend, at a national average of $4.31 a gallon, according to the AAA motor club. But prices at the pump have risen by about 16 cents a gallon in the last week. Prices for a gallon of regular gas are now nearly 45 percent higher than they were before the war began.

 

Gas prices don’t move in lock step with crude, usually trailing increases or drops by a few days.

 

The average price of diesel continues to rise. It was $6.20 a gallon on Sunday, up about 65 percent since the start of the war.

Satellite images show extent of damage to major Saudi pipeline, amid global oil supply fears

 

Satellite images show extent of damage to major Saudi pipeline, amid global oil supply fears

Saudis yet to provide details about damage from drone attack to key east-west pipeline to Red Sea that could affect 4% of global oil supply

 

Mark Saunokonoko and agencies

Mon 14 Sep 2026 03.44 BST

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/14/saudi-pipeline-drone-attack-houthis-global-oil-supply-prices

 

Saudi Arabia will run out of oil ⁠stocks for export if it ⁠doesn’t restart a drone-damaged major ​pipeline to the Red Sea within days, leading to the loss of up to 4% of global supply, Saudi oil buyers and traders said.

Satellite photos released on Sunday night appeared to show a pumping station on the key 1,200km (745-mile) Saudi east-west pipeline charred and badly damaged, after drone attacks on Friday.

A further decline in oil flow from Saudi Arabia, the world largest oil exporter, will worsen the ⁠global supply crunch, which has already pushed global fuel prices to record highs and spurred inflation around the world.

The news comes as Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi forces have launched attacks on targets in Saudi Arabia and captured the strategic island of Perim in the Bab al-Mandab strait, expanding their control of the narrow waterway.

On Sunday, the international oil benchmark, Brent crude, rose more than 3.4% to $108 per barrel, a level not seen since May.

Since the drone attacks forced the shutdown of the pipeline, Riyadh has yet to provide full details about the extent of the damage or how long the ​route will stay offline. The Saudis blamed the attack on drones launched by militants in Iraq.

 

Sources that spoke to Reuters gave varying estimates, ‌with one saying the damage could take ‌up to six weeks to repair, while another said it could be fixed sooner and could resume pumping partially while ‌repairs are ongoing.

Saudi Arabia’s government media office and energy ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

For the past six months, the pipeline running through the desert across the Arabian Peninsula has spared Saudi Arabia from the brunt of the impact of the wartime shutdown of the strait of Hormuz that has crippled exports from its neighbours.

The world’s biggest exporter has used the pipeline to reroute around 4m barrels per day – about 4% of global supply – to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.

But with the ‌pipeline out of service, Yanbu now has stocks to maintain exports for just five to seven days, according to three industry sources familiar with Saudi exports.

Saudi Arabia also has stocks to supply customers for several days from ​Egypt’s ports of Ain Sukhna on the Red Sea and Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean, a fourth source said.

Stocks are not full and will ultimately run out without the east-west pipeline resuming operations, the four sources said.

View image in fullscreen

Satellite image released by Vantor of the damaged pumping station on Saudi Arabia’s east-west pipeline. Photograph: Satellite image ©2026 Vantor/AFP/Getty Images

As the price of oil price of climbed, hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough in the near term faded when Oman’s foreign minister, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, posted late Sunday that a regional meeting scheduled for Monday had been postponed “in the interests of consensus”.

Iranian officials had said they would attend that gathering with Gulf Arab states to present ⁠an agreement with Oman on governing shipping routes through the strait of Hormuz.

The strait was free to transit before the war, but Iran now requires vessels to obtain permission and is considering a mechanism to impose service fees.

The disruptions to crude has driven up prices across refined derivatives such as petrol and diesel. Diesel prices in the US hit a record on Friday, soaring past $6 a gallon on average.

The Houthis are targeting Saudi oil infrastructure and shipping as part of a recently declared blockade. Recent advances by the Iran-aligned group puts them closer to a major US base in Djibouti.

The spiralling conflict in the Middle East is now in its seventh month, after US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on 28 February and Donald Trump declared the war would finished in four to six weeks.

With Reuters and Associated Press