terça-feira, 27 de outubro de 2026
What you need to know about the most consequential election in Israel’s history
What you
need to know about the most consequential election in Israel’s history
Benjamin
Netanyahu is seeking a new mandate in Israel’s first election since the 7
October 2023 Hamas attacks
Emma Graham-Harrison in Jerusalem
Mon 26 Oct
2026 12.17 GMT
On Tuesday Israel holds its first
election since the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks, the deadliest day in the
country’s history, which resulted in the deaths of about 1,200 people, the
majority of them civilians.
Since then
Israel has pursued a war of annihilation in Gaza, launched two inconclusive
wars with Iran, and intensified a campaign of state-backed ethnic cleansing in
the occupied West Bank.
Domestically
the coalition formed by Benjamin Netanyahu
has taken aim at democratic institutions, including the supreme court. Many
Israelis have described this election as the most consequential in their
country’s history.
Who are
the main players?
The prime
minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has led Israel for 19 out of the last 30 years,
most recently at the head of a far-right coalition. He is seeking a new mandate
with the endorsement of the US president, Donald Trump, and the fight is
personal as well as political. He is on trial for corruption; losing power may
mean a greater risk of jail time.
His main
rival is Gadi
Eisenkot, a former head of the Israeli military and relative political
newcomer, the son of Moroccan immigrants who rose to the heart of Israel’s
establishment from humble beginnings. His son and two nephews were killed
fighting in Gaza in 2024.
He lacks
Netanyahu’s charisma, but has embraced that as part of a campaign positioning
him as the opposite of Israel’s current leader, down to the name of his new
party – Yashar, or “Honesty”.
What are
the key issues for voters?
Israel’s
security is at the heart of the election, overshadowing even the soaring cost
of living. Opponents of the current government point to the catastrophe of the
7 October attacks, the erosion of democratic institutions, rise of religious
extremism and the cost of open-ended, multi-front wars.
They have
promised a state commission of inquiry into 7 October, and most have pledged to
end draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox men, a source of deep resentment among
families whose loved ones are serving or have been killed.
They are
also concerned about international isolation, amid broadening sanctions over
settlement expansion, and an accelerating brain
drain among the elite.
Netanyahu
has tried to shift blame for 7 October on to Israel’s security establishment,
and despite presiding over the deadliest day in Israel’s history, he claims to
be the only leader with the experience and international contacts to keep the
country safe.
He recently
posted an AI image of a nuclear bomb hitting Tel Aviv on social media, with the
claim “anyone who cares about their physical existence” should pause before
voting for the opposition.
His far-right
allies have called for the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and the occupied West
Bank, and expansion of settlements.
His
ultra-Orthodox partners want to preserve a decades-old exemption from
conscription and subsidies for religious study.
What are
the polls saying?
Most polls
show Netanyahu’s Likud and his current coalition parters losing their majority.
That fall in voter support has been fairly consistent for more than two years.
They also
show a clear anti-Netanyahu majority. However, those opposition seats are
divided between the bloc of Jewish Israeli parties, led by Eisenkot’s Yashar,
and parties representing Palestinian
citizens of Israel.
The Jewish
Israeli parties are unlikely to have a majority on their own, but have mostly
ruled out going into coalition with Palestinians.
Palestinian
politicians have indicated they might support a minority government of the
Jewish Israeli parties in order to unseat Netanyahu’s far-right coalition.
How does
the system work and when might we get results/a new government?
The Knesset
has 120 seats, with lawmakers voted in through a system of proportional
representation. No single party has ever claimed a majority of 61 seats, so
Israel has always been governed by coalitions.
When the
results are in, the president invites the party with the largest number of
seats to try to agree a governing coalition.
Exit polls
are released at 10pm Israeli time (8pm GMT), and the first indication of actual
voting counts usually emerges in the early hours of the morning.
Getting full
results could take much longer, with the outcome potentially hanging on the
electoral fortunes of two small parties, which need to win 3.25% of the overall
vote to take up seats in the Knesset. Polling puts both around this threshold.
If they cross it, they each get four seats, which would have a significant
impact on coalition building options.
The
far-right Amcha Yisrael is led by the former general Ofer Winter, who has
pledged to back Netanyahu for prime minister if he gets into the Knesset. The
Reservists is a rightwing Zionist party focused on ensuring universal
conscription whose leaders sit between the two blocs. They have ruled out
joining any government supported by either the ultra-Orthodox – key Netanyahu
allies – or Palestinian parties whose backing Eisenkot is likely to need.
If it goes
down to the wire, counting could take more than a day.
How
democratic is the vote – and who is being disenfranchised?
About 15
million people live in areas under Israeli control. Just over 7 million Jewish
Israelis and 1.7 million Palestinian citizens of Israel live within the
country’s pre-1967 borders, known as the “green line”, and have full voting
rights.
In the
occupied West Bank, more than 500,000 Israeli
settlers can vote. They live among 3.1 million Palestinians who are subject
to military rule and do not have the right to vote.
In occupied
East Jerusalem more than 230,000 Israelis with voting rights live among 350,000
Palestinians who cannot vote.
Two million
Palestinians in Gaza, who live under Israeli military
occupation, according to the international court of justice, also have no
vote.
Following his defeat in the presidential runoff election, Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro has been ordered by the Supreme Court to surrender his passports within 24 hours and is legally barred from leaving the country.
.jpeg)
Brazil:
defeated Flávio Bolsonaro ordered to surrender passports
Following
his defeat in the presidential runoff election, Brazilian Senator Flávio
Bolsonaro has been ordered by the Supreme Court to surrender his passports
within 24 hours and is legally barred from leaving the country.
The
Election Context
The passport
order came directly after the official results of the 2026 presidential runoff
election were certified:
26 Oct,
07:46
From Superior Electoral
Court (TSE) via Reuters
2026
Brazil Presidential election Round 2
Lula wins.
Superior Electoral Court (TSE) has called this race. 100,00% reporting.
Official results.
Lula
51,79%
Workers'
Party
64.256.232
votes
Flávio
Bolsonaro
48,21%
Liberal
Party
59.826.041
votes
Invalid/null
-
4.153.801
votes
Core
Details of the Court Ruling
- The Mandate: Issued by Supreme Federal Court
Justice Alexandre de Moraes, the confidential ruling cancels all of
Bolsonaro’s passports—including his diplomatic passport as a sitting
congressman—and orders him to turn them over to the Federal Police.
- Criminal Investigation: The ruling is tied to an
ongoing federal criminal inquiry regarding a massive money-laundering and
illegal foreign exchange scheme. The police suspect that hundreds of
millions of pounds were laundered through links to betting companies.
- Restricted Contacts: The court has explicitly
prohibited Bolsonaro from having any contact with his associate, lawyer
Willer Tomaz, who is a co-target in the money-laundering probe.
- Flight Risk Concerns: The restriction reportedly
stems in part from recent public remarks made by the candidate's brother,
Eduardo Bolsonaro, who suggested during a podcast that Flávio should flee
Brazil if he lost the election.
Bolsonaro's
Response
Flávio
Bolsonaro confirmed he received the police notification on Monday on the
streets of Brasília right after visiting his father, former president Jair
Bolsonaro (who is currently under house arrest). In a video broadcast on social
media, the younger Bolsonaro denied any intention of fleeing the country,
stated he would comply with the passport order, and vowed to legally defend
himself against the corruption allegations
Brazil: defeated Flávio Bolsonaro ordered to surrender passports
.jpeg)
Brazil:
defeated Flávio Bolsonaro ordered to surrender passports
Far-right
senator banned from leaving country as supreme court judge’s ruling makes
reference to money-laundering case
Tiago Rogero
in Brasília
Mon 26 Oct
2026 23.02 GMT
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/26/flavio-bolsonaro-brazil-lula-election
The
far-right senator Flávio Bolsonaro was banned from leaving Brazil and ordered
to surrender his passports just hours after his dramatic loss in the
presidential election to the leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The ruling
was issued by supreme court justice Alexandre de Moraes, the same justice who
oversaw the trial of the senator’s father, the former president Jair Bolsonaro,
for attempting a coup.
Bolsonaro
posted a video saying the decision was based on an interview his brother,
Eduardo Bolsonaro, gave last Friday urging his brother to leave Brazil if he
lost the election.
On Monday
night, Bolsonaro’s party issued a statement acknowledging the election result,
saying: “We recognise the presidential result proclaimed by the electoral
court, but believe that the questions raised need to be properly clarified
through a balanced and democratic political debate.”
Bolsonaro,
like his father four years ago, has still not conceded defeat to Lula.
The court’s
brief ruling regarding his passport only refers to a criminal case in which the
federal police are investigating Flávio Bolsonaro over his possible involvement
in a money-laundering scheme. The ruling orders him not to have any contact
with his friend Willer Tomaz, a lawyer linked to betting companies that police
suspect were being used to launder about £680m.
It also
cancelled all of Bolsonaro’s passports, including the diplomatic one he holds
as a congressman, and ordered him to hand them over within 24 hours.
Bolsonaro
was the first to speak publicly about the matter, before Brazilian media were
even aware of the judge’s decision.
In a video
posted on social media, he said he had just left a visit to his father, who is
under house arrest in Brasília, when “Lula’s federal police were at his door
and in the middle of the street, and I was served with an order to hand over my
passports and I am also prohibited from leaving the country”.
He added
that, although his brother – who is in self-imposed exile in the US – told a US
podcast on Friday that he favoured the senator leaving Brazil if he lost the
election, “I never said that”.
When his
Senate term ends early next year, Bolsonaro will be out of public office for
the first time in 24 years, and therefore without the special jurisdiction
afforded to officeholders.
He is under
investigation in another criminal case, too, over what happened to the £20m he
was captured on tape asking a disgraced banker accused of corruption to provide
for a biopic about his father.
The Folha de
S.Paulo newspaper reported that Flávio Bolsonaro had been persuaded to drop his
plan to seek to annul the election, which he had announced after the result was
declared on Sunday night.
Bolsonaro
had claimed that the two-hour extension of voting – intended to allow voters
who had been unable to access the mandatory free public transport to cast their
ballots – had harmed the election, despite the fact that his own campaign had
also argued for an extension.
According to
the newspaper, allies and lawyers told him his argument was legally weak.
Bolsonaro
had still not publicly reversed his demand for an annulment, and in the same
video he said he would file another case to have Lula’s ticket disqualified
over alleged abuse of economic power, a similar case to others his legal team
brought during the campaign.
