Trump’s
diesel threat risks burning U.S. credibility
European
officials say the prospect of a U.S. cutoff is exposing the risks of relying on
American fuel.
By Zack
Colman and Ben Munster
09/26/2026
06:00 PM GMT+2
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/26/diesel-export-ban-energy-europe-01094058
President
Donald Trump’s threat to curtail diesel shipments abroad comes with a risk: the
perception that he’s reneging on his promise to shower the world with U.S.
fuels.
That move
would inflame tensions between the U.S. and Europe while jeopardizing American
credibility as a trading partner, energy experts and administration allies
said. And it could compel nations to seek other suppliers, limiting Trump’s
ability to wield energy as a negotiating tool in the future, they added.
“This is
going to damage our reputation,” said an external adviser to the Trump
administration, who was granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.
“The whole premise of energy dominance was that the United States would be able
to supply our allies around the world. Curtailing that is going to raise
question marks.”
Plans to
limit U.S. diesel exports are under discussion at the White House as the fuel’s
price soars because of oil supply disruptions stemming from the Iran war. The
Trump administration is considering different options, from a full-scale 90-day
export ban to incremental limits on outbound diesel. The idea is fiercely
opposed by the oil and gas industry over worries that it could make them less
competitive in overseas markets.
The
effort to corral fuel prices comes less than six weeks ahead of midterm
elections that threaten strip control of Congress from Republicans — and break
Trump’s unfettered influence over the Legislative branch.
A White
House official said Trump is evaluating all his options to lower diesel prices,
which have soared from $3.74 a gallon to $6.52 over the past year.
The
European Union has increased U.S. diesel imports to record levels because of
the Iran war, with imports rising by 1.5 million barrels a day in August, a 50%
increase since the conflict began in February, said David Jorbenaze, a senior
oil analyst at commodities intelligence firm ICIS.
According
to S&P Global Energy, U.S. diesel now accounts for 10% of the continent’s
consumption.
Finding
replacement supply would be extremely difficult, with refineries around the
world already operating at maximum capacity, Jorbenaze said.
“Removing
that source would pull away the leg Europe has been leaning on hardest,” he
said, adding that a ban would result in increased global competition for
cargoes from a “shrinking pool” of suppliers, a drop in output of other crude
products, and higher prices across the board.
The
logical endpoint is demand destruction, according to Debnil Chowdhury, a senior
fuel analyst at S&P Global Energy, with the cost falling on consumers to
preserve fuel for agriculture and industry. “Europe will have to drive less;
Europe will have to fly less,” he said.
It could
also bring political blowback for the U.S., said Landon Derentz, vice president
of energy and infrastructure at the Atlantic Council.
“Not too
many people are connecting the dots here — this is one more element of concern
with international partners about the reliability of U.S. supply,” said
Derentz, who worked on energy security policy in the Obama, Trump and Biden
administrations. “You can’t avoid some level of this leading into the broader
aspects of further investment into the U.S. energy sector.”
However,
there are already signs that Europeans’ trust in the U.S. is beginning to fray.
“If
they’re not listening to their own people, why would they listen to us?” said
one Eastern European energy official who was granted anonymity to describe
internal discussions, referencing the U.S. oil industry’s pushback against the
ban.
The
official argued that outreach through official channels was fruitless thanks to
a broader diplomatic breakdown.
“With
this administration, official channels tend to be a slow waste of time,” the
official said. “And yet that’s exactly why official channels are supposed to
work. If everyone tries to get in through the back door, the back door becomes
the front door.”
Another
official from a mid-sized European country said the government was caught off
guard by reports of a 90-day ban and was now scrambling to understand the risks
— highlighting the country’s growing awareness of the dangers it faces from
depending on U.S. imports.
“Nobody
has really done any … risk analysis for [scenarios that last more] than two
weeks,” the official said.
Other
countries say the diesel issue is emphasizing the risks of being reliant on the
U.S. as a fuel provider.
“We have
a huge dependency on the United States — we have to do everything to become
more independent,” Austrian Industry and Economy Minister Wolfgang
Hattmannsdorfer said at a press conference on Thursday, in response to a
question from POLITICO.
He said
it was a sign that Europe needs to deepen its engagement with other exporting
countries like Libya, Nigeria and Kazakhstan, while boosting its own output.
Others
said if the U.S. curtails diesel shipments, it could undermine trust in
American energy markets by continuing a trend of scattershot export policies,
such as former President Joe Biden’s pause of new liquefied natural gas
terminals.
The U.S.
advantage with global buyers is that private companies execute deals, said Ben
Cahill, director for energy markets and policy at the Center for Energy and
Environmental Systems Analysis at the University of Texas at Austin. Trump
meddling in private sector markets would be akin to the risks of dealing with
state-run companies beholden to political leaders, he said.
“An
action like this would definitely undermine the reputation of the United States
as a reliable exporter and trade partner,” he said.
