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Don’t assume von der Leyen is coming back
The European Commission president is still the
front-runner — but is increasingly coming under fire.
APRIL 15,
2024 4:00 AM CET
BY BARBARA
MOENS, NICHOLAS VINOCUR AND JACOPO BARIGAZZI
A second
coronation does not come guaranteed for Queen Ursula.
Two months
ahead of June’s Europe-wide election, Brussels is abuzz with European diplomats
and officials warning that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
is not a shoo-in for another five year term leading the EU’s executive.
One EU
official called it the talk of the town.
“A big part of it is the arrogance of power,” the EU
official continued. “She mistakenly thought she could get away with everything.
So some smaller mistakes are now being used against her.” Like other officials
quoted in this article, the EU official was granted anonymity to speak freely
about the powerful German politician within the Brussels bubble.
At the
heart of the matter, there are two prime forces that could torpedo her in the
post-electoral horse-trading.
France —
whose relations with Germany are rocky — is still highly ambiguous about its
support, probably to extract concessions, though it could spy a late
opportunity to rejig the top table. If she passes that potential hurdle of
dissent from Paris, she will also have to worry about whether she can secure
confirmation from the new-look European Parliament, in which the far-right is
likely to be a larger player than today. Even the support from her own
center-right European People’s Party looks lukewarm.
“Von der Leyen’s periodic missteps, from Pfizergate to
her trip to Israel, are taking on new meaning as we get closer to the
election,” said Alberto Alemanno, a professor of law at HEC business school in
Paris. |
The
prospect of an upset only seems to be growing after a series of a series of
slip ups in recent weeks, stressed EU officials and diplomats. That’s quite a
turn-around from the beginning of the year, when she had seemed rock solid.
“Von der
Leyen’s periodic missteps, from Pfizergate to her trip to Israel, are taking on
new meaning as we get closer to the election,” said Alberto Alemanno, a
professor of law at HEC business school in Paris. “They acquire a pattern.”
“What this
boils down to is that we are moving away from TINA – there is no alternative –
to a situation which is more fluid, and where we are essentially opening
Pandora’s box,” he added.
Still, the
65-year old von der Leyen is the woman to beat. Not only is she the incumbent,
her EPP is polling way ahead of the competition, giving them the right — as
they see it — to have von der Leyen stay on. It’s also hard to see which other
candidate stands a chance of displacing her when EU leaders meet this summer to
divvy up the bloc’s top jobs, such as European Commission, Council and Foreign
Policy chiefs roles.
Still, as
one EU diplomat stressed: “She should not take it for granted.”
So, what
happened?
Two other
officials pointed to the March party congress in Bucharest as a key turning
point in the perception of von der Leyen.
In early
March, European conservatives met in the Romanian capital to officially endorse
the former German defense minister as the face of their EU election campaign.
But some, like French conservative heavyweight Michel Barnier, refused to back
her.
European
Commissioner Thierry Breton, who hails from the competing liberals (but works
under von der Leyen), publicly called out what he said was lackluster support
received by von der Leyen from her own EPP group. The liberals are also part of
the coalition backing von der Leyen in the European Parliament.
While von
der Leyen was the only name on the EPP’s ballot that day in Bucharest to be its
lead candidate and received 400 votes in favor, with 89 against — out of a
total 499 votes, the perception was set.
Since then,
there’s been mounting pushback against von der Leyen’s authority.
First, a
cross-party initiative in the European Parliament — which included von der
Leyen’s own EPP — legally challenged the Commission’s decision to grant Hungary
€10 billion in EU money, which was frozen over the country’s rule of law
issues.
Rule of law
issues — a topic where the EPP is seen as weak — have been a point of
contention between von der Leyen and the European Parliament, whose votes she
needs for a second term.
Von der
Leyen also faced an internal rebellion by four of her top commissioners — from
the social democrat and liberal camps — after awarding a lucrative envoy role
to European lawmaker Markus Pieper, who belongs to her German conservative
party.
The
so-called “Piepergate” affair came days after POLITICO revealed that the
European Public Prosecutor’s Office had opened an investigation into her highly
contentious (and maddeningly opaque) use of text messages to negotiate major
vaccine purchase contracts during the Covid-19 pandemic.
In
navigating these crises, she sometimes muscled aside her commissioners or
national governments, leading to grumblings which can cost her when she has to
be nominated again by European leaders (and then confirmed by the European
Parliament.)
Meanwhile,
von der Leyen herself has been slow to get her campaign going, clinging to the
advantages of incumbency. She appointed her campaign team weeks after her
nomination as lead candidate.
The choice
of her campaign chief, her trusted right-hand Björn Seibert, who was her
European Commission Chief of Staff until Apr. 5, led to renewed criticism in
Brussels.
“This shows
she can only rely on a very small circle of trusted people. It’s not a sign of
confidence in her party,” said one senior parliamentary official who asked not
to be named while commenting on Commission affairs.
Alexander
Winterstein, the chief spokesperson of the von der Leyen campaign, stressed
that von der Leyen has a double workload as president and as a candidate.
“Ursula von
der Leyen has travelled to Greece, Germany and Latvia already on her campaign,
with a lot more to follow,” Winterstein said. “She will campaign hard on the
three issues she deeply cares about: democracy, prosperity and security. In
particular, she will continue confronting head-on those who want to undermine
European democracy, both from outside and within Europe. A lot is at stake in
these elections.”
‘Lame
duchess’
Of course,
as a prime minister once noted, a week is a long time in politics.
With two
months to go before the elections, von der Leyen has time to change the
perception, for example, by touting her legacy. She has emerged as the most
powerful Commission president since Jacques Delors, rolling out emergency
measures to protect Europe through the pandemic and then the war in Ukraine.
French
President Emmanuel Macron, however, who was key to landing her the job in 2019,
has been ambiguous in his support — in what seems a classic power move to have
as much leverage as possible.
While
Germany has no other choice than to back the former German defense minister for
a second term — despite that her party is not part of the ruling coalition —
France is playing hard to get.
In an
interview with POLITICO, the head of French President Emmanuel Macron’s Renew
group in the European Parliament, Valérie Hayer, declined to endorse von der
Leyen for a second term. “I won’t rule out voting for her again, I won’t rule
out not voting for her again,” she said.
Several EU
diplomats interpret the signals from Paris as a way to derive concessions from
von der Leyen for her second term.
“The French
don’t want Ursula walking on a red carpet with flowers thrown on her at the
June European Council,” said another EU diplomat.
“The idea
of a German Commission president who can do whatever she wants during a second
mandate is a nightmare for them.”
Macron’s
support is key for von der Leyen.
To win a
second term, she will need to convince a qualified majority of EU leaders at
the European Council table to back her. While she’s likely to get a nod from
Europe’s 12 conservative leaders, it remains to be seen how much support she
can rally beyond her party.
Hungary and
Slovakia are highly critical toward the Commission’s policies, while Spanish
Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has repeatedly been at odds with the Berlaymont
over the Israel-Hamas war. Von der Leyen’s resolute support for Israel
triggered a backlash from Spain, Ireland, Belgium and voices across the
European left.
The
potentially fatal challenge however is set to be the European Parliament. In
2019, she was placed in office with the support of the EU’s self-described
pro-European parties: the conservative European People’s Party, the Socialists
and the liberal Renew group. That landed her only a narrow majority: 383 votes,
slightly above the minimum of 374. With the far right surging across Europe,
von der Leyen could struggle to repeat that win.
As of June
10, von der Leyen will have to start courting the newly elected European
lawmakers to secure their votes. “She will be the object of huge pressure by
lawmakers to win their support,” said a second EU official.
That risks
limiting her room for maneuver during her second mandate, or even making her a
lame duchess, a third EU official put it.
Meanwhile,
her critics have started floating other names for European Commission
president. Some hail from her own party, as they are set to hold the majority
of seats in the European Parliament, such as European Parliament President
Roberta Metsola or Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković.
“We will
enter the top job discussion with von der Leyen as European Commission
President,” the first EU official said, the one who said von der Leyen thought
she could get away with things.
“Whether
she’ll still be there at the end, is another question.”
Clea
Caulcutt contributed reporting from Paris.
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