Dreaming of Pedro Sánchez, Brussels could be
headed for a rude awakening
Spain’s PM is a hot tip to run the European Council.
Would he be any good?
For Pedro Sánchez, moving to Brussels could prove a
deft exit from Spain’s fractured — and toxic — political scene. |
APRIL 26,
2024 4:00 AM CET
BY BARBARA
MOENS, CLAUDIA CHIAPPA AND AITOR HERNÁNDEZ-MORALES
Could Pedro
Sánchez, the Spanish prime minister nicknamed “Mr. Handsome,” be the next
president of the European Council?
That’s what
European officials and diplomats have been asking since Sánchez’ surprise
announcement Wednesday that he is considering resigning as the head of Spain’s
government. The news triggered feverish speculation regarding Spain’s political
future — as well as on Sánchez’s odds of netting a top job in Brussels.
In a
bombshell four-page letter, Sánchez expressed exasperation with the constant
attacks on his family by newspapers and right-wing militants. The extreme
nature of the assaults, he said, had led him to ponder whether leading the
country was worth the trouble.
“I need
time to reflect,” Sánchez said. “I urgently need to answer a question that I
keep asking myself: Is it worth it for me to remain [in office] in spite of the
right and far-right’s mudslinging?”
Brussels is
gearing up to allocate the EU’s most senior jobs following June’s European
Parliament election. The political parties that get the most votes will stake
their claims to the leadership of the European Commission, the European
Council, the European Parliament and the EU’s foreign policy arm.
The
socialists, who are likely to remain the second-largest group in the
Parliament, are eyeing the top job at the European Council, currently held by
Belgian liberal Charles Michel.
For
Sánchez, moving to Brussels could prove a deft exit from Spain’s fractured —
and toxic — political scene. The socialist’s domestic public image has never
been great, and his controversial decision to grant Catalan separatists a
blanket amnesty in order to secure their support for his continued tenure has
only increased public resentment.
Europe calling
Sánchez may
not be popular in Spain but he is well-liked in Brussels, and is appreciated by
his European peers.
That
doesn’t mean he’s a shoo-in for a top job, however.
EU
officials and diplomats are divided on a prospective Sánchez candidacy. For
starters, it remains to be seen if and how he leaves office, and who takes over
on the home front. If Sánchez were to leave Spain, Europe’s fifth-largest
economy, in a state of political chaos it could tarnish his appeal in Brussels.
There are
also doubts as to whether Sánchez has the right profile for European Council
president. The EU leaders who will decide who gets the job would likely prefer
someone at the end of their political career — someone such as Herman Van
Rompuy, the former Belgian prime minister who was the first to hold the role
and who proved to be a discreet referee keen to broker compromises.
Michel,
meanwhile, has been faulted for his perceived preoccupation with his own
ambitions and international profile.
“We need an
older man or woman who doesn’t do turf battles with Ursula [von der Leyen] and
doesn’t have his or her next job in mind,” said one EU official, who expressed
pessimism about the 52-year-old Sánchez’s chances. The official, like others
quoted in this piece, was granted anonymity to speak freely about future
European leaders.
Sánchez,
who took office in 2018 and won a third term as prime minister last year,
raised eyebrows in Brussels when Spain was in charge of the rotating presidency
during the second half of last year.
He didn’t
hesitate to use his agenda-setting power in Brussels to further his own
domestic goals, while some diplomats chafed at his push to get Basque, Catalan
and Galician recognized as official EU languages — a campaign he launched to
secure Catalan support for his preferred candidate to preside over Spain’s
parliament.
And then there’s Palestine
Sánchez’s
outspoken support for Palestinian statehood — Spain intends to extend official
recognition within two months — could also be a liability. It’s unclear whether
EU members with close links to Israel will back a Council president that some
in the Israeli government view as an antagonist.
Others may
resent Sánchez for saddling the EU with its current and problematic foreign
affairs chief, and could be reluctant to see another Spaniard in a top post so
soon.
“Sanchez
doesn’t have a good name for some EU countries … He gave us [outgoing High
Representative Josep] Borrell, who proved unable to steer countries together on
sensitive topics like Israel or previously Russia,” said a senior EU diplomat.
Ultimately,
there are so many “buts” regarding Sánchez’ getting a top EU job that “the
speculation … says more about the lack of candidates among the socialists than
about Sánchez’s actual chances,” said one EU diplomat.
The names
that are currently on the socialist shortlist for the Council job do indeed
come with serious question marks. Former Portuguese Prime Minister António
Costa is still under investigation for his alleged connection to an
influence-peddling scheme, while Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen is
disliked because of her government’s controversial immigration policies, which
are a source of discomfort for other socialist leaders.
Sánchez is
poised to address the nation on Monday and to reveal whether he will step down.
Spanish citizens and European diplomats are struggling to decipher whether the
prime minister’s threat to quit is a political maneuver intended to unite the
left against the country’s right-wing forces, or whether he truly is
considering walking away. The center-right Popular Party has accused the prime
minister of playing the victim.
Sánchez’
letter comes, after all, with two major elections on the horizon. On May 12 a
snap regional vote is set to take place in Catalonia, while a month later
Spaniards will vote in the European election.
The Sánchez
speculation in Brussels could therefore be short-lived. But as one female EU
diplomat quipped: “We can only dream, right?”
Stuart Lau
and Jakob Hanke Vela contributed to this report.
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