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Who could take on von der Leyen for Commission
president?
Brussels is rife with speculation on who might be
chosen as the EU executive’s next chief.
APRIL 25,
2024 4:35 AM CET
BY BARBARA
MOENS, NICHOLAS VINOCUR AND JAKOB HANKE VELA
It’s going
to be Ursula von der Leyen again, right?
The
European Commission president is indeed still the clear front-runner to get a
second term atop the EU executive, but she is no longer a shoo-in for another
five years.
That means
an exciting new game is being played in town (chiefly by politicians, diplomats
and officials who are critical of the Commission chief, but you’re free to join
in too) of who could get the job, if not von der Leyen?
Below are
the runners and riders who are being floated either as genuine alternatives or
as a way to pressure von der Leyen to extract concessions from her.
Not on this
list … the lead candidates of the political parties competing with von der
Leyen. Notwithstanding the so-called Spitzenkandidaten process, the European
People’s Party is unlikely to give up the presidency of the Commission if they
remain the biggest political force in Brussels.
Mario Draghi
Why? The
76-year-old led a broad-based Italian coalition until it disintegrated in 2022,
and his name often comes up when international leadership roles fall vacant. So
far, the former Italian prime minister and European Central Bank president has
mostly been linked to the job of European Council president (when Charles
Michel exits).
Draghi is
already back in the thick of EU politics, working on an official Brussels plan
to make the bloc more competitive, which he’ll deliver just after the EU
election when European leaders will be haggling over the bloc’s top jobs. On
top of that, he’s close to French President Emmanuel Macron.
Why not?
The Italian doesn’t have a clear political affiliation, and it’s hard to see
why the EPP would surrender the powerful post of Commission president to
someone without clear political loyalties.
Chances of
replacing VDL:
Roberta Metsola
Why? As
outlined above, the EPP is unlikely to give up the Commission leadership in the
next term. However, if von der Leyen doesn’t get the support she needs, the
other top female EPP candidate could rise to the surface.
As European
Parliament president Metsola has managed to stay above the political fray, a
tactic which previously helped her secure her current post. At the same time
she has shown leadership on foreign policy, and was the first EU leader to
visit Kyiv after Russia’s February 2022 invasion. Hailing from Malta, Metsola
could be a win for southern Europe when the top jobs are doled out. In an
Instagram post last week Metsola was seen huddling with Greek Prime Minister
Kyriakos Mitsotakis and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk — a hint that
whatever the job may be, she has support in high places.
Why not?
Malta is the smallest country in the EU, by both size and population. Nor does
Metsola have any executive experience, even in her home country. Her
conservative record on abortion was used against her at the start of her
presidency of the EU legislature.
Chances of
replacing VDL:
Christine Lagarde
Why?
Because she’s French.
Macron’s
reluctance to endorse von der Leyen for the top job poses an obvious question:
After five years of German rule, and an even longer period of Germans or
Austrians holding the key post of head of staff to the Commission president,
does Macron want a French native to run the Commission? As an ex-finance
minister and current president of the European Central Bank, Lagarde would tick
the box of senior executive experience, and has the added advantage of being a
woman.
Why not?
Because she’s French. (Also: She’s not terribly popular among her own staff.)
There’s no
indication that Lagarde would be willing to leave the ECB before the end of her
eight-year term, or even that the Elysée is seriously considering putting her
name forward. Since she left the IMF Lagarde’s name has come up during
virtually every French government reshuffle as a possible minister. Plus ça
change…
Chances of
replacing VDL:
Klaus Iohannis
Why?
Romania’s president is seen as a steady hand and is a darling of European
leaders, particularly among conservatives. Both Macron and German Chancellor
Olaf Scholz have showered him with praise for keeping his country anchored in
the pro-Western and pro-European camp after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine —
which can’t be said of Hungary, Slovakia or Bulgaria. Unlike Poland, Romania
also strictly observed EU single market rules and didn’t unilaterally impose
restrictions on Ukrainian grain — strengthening Iohannis’ reputation as a
pro-European team player.
Many argue
it’s time for an Eastern European to lead the EU. If so, the German-speaking
Iohannis is well-placed, hailing from the same EPP political family as von der
Leyen. The decision by the EPP to hold its electoral congress in Bucharest also
testifies to his standing among the group’s conservative leaders.
With his
second term ending in December, Iohannis is looking for a top international
job. Last month he agreed to run as NATO’s next leader — but that will be an
uphill battle, given the widespread backing for Dutch PM Mark Rutte.
Why not?
Iohannis’ last-minute bid to steal the NATO leadership role from Rutte has
annoyed some Western European countries.
Chances of
replacing VDL:
Andrej Plenković
Why?
Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković also hails from the EPP, and as with
Iohannis, his appointment would answer growing calls for Eastern Europe to land
a top job. Choosing a Croatian as Commission president would also send a
positive signal to aspiring EU members (Croatia is the EU’s newest entry).
Plenković’s surprise announcement that he will lead the MEP candidates list of
Croatia’s ruling HDZ party has some suspecting he wants to abandon domestic
politics. His experience as prime minister since 2016 has certainly provided
him with authority and with networking opportunities with his fellow European
leaders.
Why not?
Plenković has dismissed rumors he could replace von der Leyen, which of course
could be seen as a good indication he’s interested in the job.
Chances of
replacing VDL:
Thierry Breton
Why? He’s
French. Breton told POLITICO last year that he had been a “Plan B” candidate to
become European commissioner back in 2019 (he only got the gig after the first
choice, Sylvie Goulard, was knocked out during confirmation hearings in the
Parliament). He has strongly hinted that he’s open to becoming Plan B once
again, should von der Leyen’s candidacy not pan out. As a former French finance
minister, Breton has senior executive experience, and although he’s not from
the EPP he does lean conservative. His track record as a former CEO who has put
industrial policy back on the Commission agenda allows him to argue he should
lead an EU executive that will be far more focused on competitiveness.
Breton has
also emerged as von der Leyen’s highest-profile critic in the Brussels bubble.
In an infamous tweet following her nomination as the EPP’s lead candidate,
Breton noted that the Commission chief didn’t exactly have unanimous support
within the EPP for a second term. He was also part of the group of
commissioners who criticized her choice of Markus Pieper as the Commission’s
SME envoy. And while a senior French official told POLITICO that Macron had
been “furious” about the von der Leyen tweet, other French officials have since
said that le président wasn’t so perturbed after all.
Why not?
Breton has perhaps more enemies than friends in top EU circles, including
within the Commission and among many EU countries, with many questioning his
track record. His brazen self-promotion and reputation for talking before
delivering has irked fellow Commissioners — chief among them Competition boss
Margrethe Vestager, but also many of the staff and civil servants he was
supposed to work with.
A vicious
(and anonymous!) article published in French outlet Atlantico described Breton
as “the worst French commissioner in 30 years,” suggesting he has rivals
determined to undermine him. In addition, he isn’t EPP, and the controversy
around his stint as head of French tech firm Atos is seen as a major liability
for any potential confirmation by the European Parliament.
Chances of
replacing VDL:
A surprise
Why? The
protracted horse-trading among political groupings over European top jobs after
EU elections is always full of surprises. Back in 2019, no one would have bet
on von der Leyen’s becoming Commission president; Brussels could well be
surprised by a candidate they’ve never heard of or met before.
Why not? We
have no clue who it might be (or else it wouldn’t be a surprise).
Chances of
replacing VDL:
Clea
Caulcutt contributed reporting from Paris. Šejla Ahmatović and Jacopo Barigazzi
contributed reporting from Brussels.
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