What do the EU elections mean for Brexit? It’s complicated
Anand Menon
Neither tribe won a clear advantage, and the main parties
stay internally deadlocked, with a general election less likely now
Mon 27 May 2019 11.43 BST Last modified on Mon 27 May 2019
12.03 BST
What a night, eh? The Conservatives turned in their worst
electoral performance since 1832. Labour managed to finish third in Wales and a
remarkable fifth in Scotland. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems have rediscovered their
mojo and the Brexit party has taken on and beaten all comers from a standing
start. What a night, and yet – whisper it quietly – it’s quite likely that nothing
much at all will change.
Let’s start with what happened before speculating about what
might transpire. The picture is relatively clear. The two big parties – those
same parties, remember, that hoovered up more than 80% of the vote at the 2017
general election – haemorrhaged votes.
We will, when MPs
come back from their recess, be confronted with the same hopelessly divided
House of Commons
The Tories attracted a vote share in single digits – 8.8%
(down 15% from 2014). As for Labour, it was only the second time it had failed
to win a national contest in Wales since 1918, and being wiped out in Scotland
is really astonishing. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats triumphed in the
constituencies of both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn, while picking up an impressive
20% of the vote – their best ever European performance.
And last but not least was of course the Brexit party.
Whatever one thinks of its leader (or, rather, CEO) it is hard not to be
impressed by the way Nigel Farage propelled his troops to outright victory on
the back of a platform accusing the “political class” of betrayal and insisting
on the need for a “clean” (no-deal) exit from the EU.
So apparently a political earthquake, but in no sense a
decisive one. For insofar as the tectonic plates have shifted, they have done
so in a way that renders the Brexit dilemma harder, rather than easier, to
solve.
What the poll underlines is that we are a country divided.
Claims to the contrary on Twitter notwithstanding, neither Brexit tribe secured
a clear advantage. What is more, there is no easy way for the large parties to
respond. As Will Jennings has argued, both Labour and the Tories lost votes to
both sides of the Brexit divide, meaning a shift towards one extreme or the
other would not be costless in electoral terms.
So clarity will not come from the big parties. Nor, it must
be said, will it be provided by parliament. Because when all is said and done,
we will, when MPs come back from their recess, be confronted with the same
hopelessly divided House of Commons as when May was trying and failing to get
her Brexit deal through.
If anything, polarisation will now be greater and possible
solutions thinner on the ground. The outcome of the election will strengthen
those on the extremes arguing either for a referendum or a no-deal exit. So do
not expect some new spirit of compromise to be in the air after half-term.
The shocking performances of the two big parties also means
that one possible way out of this bottleneck – a general election – is less
likely than it was. The one thing that Conservative and Labour MPs want less
than Brexit gridlock is an early encounter with the same electorate that just
issued them such a severe punishment beating.
So, as before, there are a number of possible outcomes to
this process – all of them apparently highly implausible. We could leave with
no deal, but it is hard to see how parliament would let that happen. In
extremis, I’d expect sufficient numbers of Conservative MPs to bring their own
government down via a vote of no confidence rather than risk a “clean Brexit”.
Alternatively, we might see moves towards another
referendum. Here, too, there are formidable obstacles. For one thing, the
parliamentary numbers remain stubbornly as they were. And, what is more,
Conservatives will be more wary than ever of seeming to resile on their promise
to deliver Brexit. Meanwhile their Labour counterparts from leave-voting areas
will be wary of the damage Farage could do to their hopes of re-election were
they to back a people’s vote.
And finally, there is the deal. The deal that has failed on
three separate occasions to garner a majority in the House, but which remains
the only deal on the table. It is conceivable that a new Tory leader might
traipse to Brussels and secure cosmetic changes – a word here or there, maybe a
subtle change in font – then come back declaring triumph. Conceivable, too,
that his or her colleagues would be wary about dealing a grievous blow to their
newly installed leader and might rally behind them to an extent they simply
were not willing to do for May. Yet here again, it is hard to make the numbers
add up.
So brace yourselves for a last week of October that looks
uncannily like the last week of March.
• Anand Menon is director of The UK in a Changing Europe and
professor of European politics and foreign affairs at King’s College London
Here was Nigel unplugged. His narcissism and self-deceit
exposed
John Crace
Today was the Brexit party leader’s day, the great disruptor
had achieved one of his greatest disruptions
@JohnJCrace
Mon 27 May 2019 19.01 BST Last modified on Tue 28 May 2019
07.41 BST
The crack team of UK negotiators lined up for a group photo.
Nigel Farage, Richard Tice, Claire Fox, Ann Widdecombe, Annunziata Rees-Mogg
and the other 24 new Brexit party MEPs sticking it to the man in the er …
imposing establishment surroundings of Carlton House Terrace in the heart of
Westminster. But hey, even the men and women of the people need a little down
time away from the people they now represent. A chance to chill out and
celebrate their success.
These were the names who would strike terror into the
Brussels elite. “So Monsieur so-called Barnier, we are fed up with you
humiliating our country,” they planned to say in unison. “What we demand is
that we leave the EU on 31 October on World Trade Organization terms. Nothing
more, nothing less.”
“Um … OK,” Barnier would then reply. “If that’s what you
want, then be our guest.”
“But you don’t understand. We are here to negotiate a
no-deal Brexit. So we want to do some negotiations.”
“I see. But the whole point of a no deal is that it doesn’t
require a negotiation.”
“We don’t care. We are the crack team of negotiators. So can
we negotiate not having a negotiation?”
Repeat until everyone dies a little more inside. The Brexit
party may have the excuse of only being seven weeks old, but you might have
thought even they would have thought this one through.
The afternoon after the night before. The Tories had
mysteriously chosen not to celebrate their support almost reaching double
figures. Instead, Theresa May had posted a desultory tweet about the results
being a bit disappointing – since Friday she had better things to do with her
life rather than defend her failures – while the nine MPs who had declared
their intention to replace her were falling out over who was the best unifying
candidate.
Labour, too, was at war with itself over whether or not to
support a second referendum as Jeremy Corbyn waited for his advisers to tell
him what to think. He hadn’t got where he was today by showing leadership.
Change UK was about to be taken off life support as the consultants had
recommended “do not resuscitate”. The Greens were off meditating somewhere. The
Lib Dems had shot themselves in the foot by arranging their own post-election
love-in at precisely the same time as the Brexit party had scheduled theirs
some three days earlier. So almost no one turned up. Sometimes it’s as if the
Lib Dems don’t actually want to succeed.
What the EU elections had shown was pretty much what we had
already known. That the UK was hopelessly divided. Just over a third of the
country wanted a no-deal Brexit, just over a third wanted to remain and the
rest wanted some kind of deal but not the one that had been offered. By any
normal standards this would be considered a mess. But with the rest of the
parties largely missing in action, the Brexit party was happy to rewrite the
narrative as a huge success for itself. A Triumph of the Will of the People.
The press conference had been due to take place in a side
room overlooking St James’s Park. The chairs had all been laid out and the
stage prepared for the arrival of Farage and the wannabe shopping channel
presenter Tice. But it quickly turned into a complete free for all. For the
last seven weeks, Farage has been the model of professionalism, kept on a tight
leash by his handlers and sticking resolutely to a few soundbites of betrayal
and humiliation. The election over, Nigel was back to his old self. Making it
up as he went along and playing to any passing camera as the formal press
conference was abandoned while reporters formed a scrum round him at the
photocall. You can take the man out of Ukip, but you can’t take Ukip out of the
man.
“Who here actually wants to take up their seats in
Brussels?” Farage asked his assembled MEPs. A few looked as if they were about
to raise their arms, before remembering that wasn’t the expected answer. But it
was hard to blame them as no one looked more thrilled to be going back to the
European parliament than Nigel. A place in which he has – in a loose sense –
served and drawn a £120K-plus salary for the past 20 years.
Here was Nigel unplugged. His essential narcissism and
self-deceit exposed. For years Farage has always insisted his goal is to make
himself redundant, but without the attention he gets as a professional
politician he could never be sure if he really existed. He feeds off the
divisions he creates. The longer he spoke, the more obvious the fault lines
became. He claims to want the Westminster politicians to deliver a no-deal
Brexit, but is horrified at the thought they might actually achieve it. Because
then he would be little more than an ageing picture in the attic.
Today was his day, though. And nothing was going to spoil
it. The great disruptor had achieved one of his greatest disruptions. Who cared
if he didn’t have any policies? Those could wait for another day. Sooner or
later some of his MEPs are going to work him out. That there is less to him
than meets the eye. That they profoundly disagree with him on key issues. Then
it will all start to fall apart. But until then, Nigel will always be a moth to
the flame of any microphone. And smile. Fake it to make it.
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