Theresa,
meet Angela
Both
leaders hold impressive academic credentials, are childless, enjoy
hiking and rose to top of male-dominated conservative parties. But
Brexit will divide them.
By MATTHEW
KARNITSCHNIG and NICHOLAS VINOCUR 7/12/16, 5:56 AM CET
If nothing else,
Theresa May’s emergence Monday as the U.K.’s next leader gives
Europe much of the clarity it has demanded in the wake of the Brexit
referendum.
Just
don’t expect anyone in Paris, Brussels or Berlin to break out the
champagne.
While many officials
regard May, who supported the Remain camp, as the lesser of the
various evils that could have emerged from the Tory leadership
contest, they see little chance of Brexit being reversed once she
takes control.
The incoming prime
minister doused whatever remaining hopes there were for such an
outcome Monday morning with her declaration that “Brexit means
Brexit.”
“There will be no
attempts to remain inside the EU. We must leave the European Union
and forge a new role for ourselves in the world,” May said in a
speech delivered just hours before her remaining rival withdrew from
the race, clearing the way for May to become prime minister this
week.
Both Merkel and May
have a reputation for putting pragmatism ahead of ideology.
Most of the EU’s
key leaders had already come to terms with that reality. However, a
bigger question on their minds than ‘whether’ is ‘when.’ That
is, when will the U.K. invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to set
in motion the process of withdrawal?
Brussels, in
particular, is eager to press forward in order to settle the issue of
the U.K.’s status, uncertainty some worry could paralyze the bloc’s
ability to function.
May offered no
specifics on timing but the stridency of her remarks suggested she’s
not eager to wait.
At the core of the
waiting game is the question of what kind of post-Brexit arrangement
the U.K. will have with the EU. European leaders have insisted
repeatedly in recent weeks that talks over allowing the U.K. access
to the EU’s common market can only begin after the two-year divorce
procedure has been completed.
Pastors’ daughters
May’s first
challenge as prime minister will be to soften the EU’s resistance
to a more universal deal. U.K. officials are likely hoping German
leader Angela Merkel will help grease those skids.
Media in both
countries have focused on the unlikely parallels between the two
women.
Roughly the same
age, both are daughters of protestant pastors and grew up outside the
glare of the big city. They both have impressive academic
credentials, are childless and said to enjoy hiking with and cooking
for husbands they’ve been wed to for decades.
Behind their austere
official persona lies a sharp wit, rarely seen by either the public
or the press, for which they share a deep distrust. Each has a
reputation for putting pragmatism ahead of ideology.
The most important
similarity of all, however, is the most obvious: Both succeeded in
climbing to the top of male-dominated conservative institutions in an
age when such ascents for women of their generation remain rare.
Still, whatever
personal sympathy Merkel may harbor for new British counterpart will
be tempered by the necessity of maintaining consensus among Germany’s
key EU allies, especially France.
Germany, which sells
more cars to the U.K. than to any other country, has no shortage of
economic arguments for finding an amicable solution that would keep
Britain in the single market.
“Valls knows her
well. They have a lot of respect for each other” — French
government official
France’s Socialist
leaders are likely to be less accommodating.
French connection
President François
Hollande, who is doing his best to rein in Euroskeptic forces at
home, warned after Britain’s vote to leave that the country would
face consequences for its decision.
For now, there is
little need to attack Britain publicly — financial markets and
political turmoil are providing all the ammunition French Europhiles
need to argue against leaving the EU.
In addition to their
desire to make an example of the U.K. for other would-be exiters,
French leaders also want to benefit from Brexit by luring City of
London bankers to Paris.
Yet Europe’s
leaders also realize the risks of backing the U.K. into a corner. If
May doesn’t succeed in securing an attractive deal for the U.K.,
whoever replaces her could be much less to the EU’s liking. Given
the deep economic and security ties between the countries, a
disorderly Brexit is the last thing anyone wants.
U.S. President
Barack Obama raised those concerns with EU leaders at meeting in
Warsaw on Friday. Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, who is
not known for taking a soft line on the Brexit question, took pains
to reassure the American president, saying the talks wouldn’t be
“hostile.”
“It’s in our
interest and the global interest to keep Britain as a strong ally,”
Juncker said at a press conference with Obama after their meeting.
May’s biggest
obstacle in dealing with EU leaders is that few know her. As the
U.K.’s home secretary, she has had little exposure to key figures
such as Hollande and Merkel.
To the degree May is
known in France and Germany, it is for being tough on immigration —
an area where May’s approach diverges sharply from Merkel’s.
May did get to know
French Prime Minister Manuel Valls, having dealt with him when he was
interior minister on the issue of migrants heading to Britain from
France, where thousands live in makeshift camps in the port city of
Calais.
“Valls knows her
well,” said a French government official. “They have a lot of
respect for each other.”
The response of a
Socialist French MP heavily involved in EU affairs was more typical.
Asked what he thought about May, he responded: “Nothing. She’s
British conservative, I don’t know much more.”
6
things to expect from Theresa May’s premiership
Like
David Cameron, Britain’s next prime minister is a liberal
Conservative. That’s where the similarities end.
By TOM MCTAGUE
7/12/16
LONDON – David
Cameron will leave Buckingham Palace as a backbench MP on Wednesday
afternoon, his career cut short in the most humiliating
circumstances. Minutes later Theresa May will arrive to take his
place as head of Her Majesty’s Government.
This is how British
politics works.
After the short
drive back to Downing Street with her husband Philip, May will walk
into Number 10 for the first time as prime minister where she will be
briefed by the cabinet secretary, Britain’s most senior civil
servant, before issuing orders to the military on what should happen
in the event of a nuclear attack. Then it’s down to work.
But what can Britain
– and Europe – expect from this reserved, almost shy,
Englishwoman with the most daunting in-tray of any prime minister
since the Second World War?
Here are six things
to know about Britain’s formidable new leader:
No more Notting Hill
set
May’s first job in
Number 10 will be to name her new Cabinet.
While reshuffles
give prime ministers the chance to assert their authority, they are
also fraught with political danger: for every winner, somebody else
loses out.
MPs overlooked by
Cameron are reassured by her record in the Home Office. “The people
she promotes will be there because they are the best people to do the
job,” one Tory minister who has worked closely with her said.
“We will see a
return to proper cabinet government. People will like that because
they will feel that they can work themselves up through the ranks.
She doesn’t have an inner circle.”
The remark reflects
widespread frustration among Tory MPs at Cameron’s so-called
“chumocracy” that saw old friends and allies of the prime
minister given plum jobs. It also helps to explain the support May
has picked up among older Tory MPs such as Chris Grayling, David
Davis and Liam Fox who feel their time may have come again.
In contrast to
Cameron, Boris Johnson and George Osborne, May has no “set” to
speak of. Those who have flocked to her leadership team are notable
for their ordinariness, for going under the radar in parliament.
While Cameron was forming alliances over university escapades and
convivial “kitchen suppers,” May, who is a decade older than her
predecessor, worked at the Bank of England and then at the European
affairs unit of the U.K.’s Association for Payment Clearing
Services before being elected to parliament.
Her core team is
packed with “quiet achievers,” one Tory backer said. Expect
promotions for backbench loyalists Simon Kirby and George Hollingbery
and a key role for Gavin Williamson, May’s influential campaign
chief. Housing and Planning Minister Brandon Lewis is also tipped for
a key cabinet role.
Jobs for the girls
It is inconceivable
that a May government will not include more women in senior
positions.
In 2005 May founded
Women2Win, a campaign group to elect more female Tory MPs, and has
spent more than a decade mentoring a host of Conservative candidates
into parliament.
“There is a huge
loyalty to Theresa,” one Tory MP said. “People overlook just how
important she has been to so many women in the party. She has been an
enabler for lots of women in Parliament.”
Amber Rudd, Priti
Patel and Karen Bradley are all tipped for promotions, while
government whip Sarah Newton is an outside bet for a ministerial job.
Inspires fierce
loyalty
May received support
from virtually everyone who has ever worked with her in government,
which allies say is testament to her leadership.
Every member of her
ministerial team in the Home Office backed her leadership bid while
former members of staff dropped their private sector jobs to
volunteer on her campaign.
Her communications
chief Katie Perrior took a break from her PR firm to help, while
former special advisers Fiona Cunningham and Nick Timothy returned to
the fold to run her leadership bid. One minister who has worked with
her said: “It takes a while to get her trust but once you do she is
rock solid. At the same time what amazed me was just how quickly
people develop an enormous respect for her. When you arrive at work
she’s there and when you leave she’s still there.”
The MP Guy Opperman,
a junior government whip who supported May’s campaign, said she
reveals a much warmer, kinder side in private which helps explain the
loyalty towards her.
He said that when he
was diagnosed with a brain tumor during the last parliament he
received lots of get well cards from colleagues. “But I only got
one two-sided hand written letter – and that was from Theresa. She
didn’t have to do that, I wasn’t in the home office. In fact I
hardly knew her. She offered to help out in any way she could.”
Former aides say May
still sends hand-written birthday and Christmas cards each year.
Loyalty to her staff
and close colleagues can however produce a “bunker mentality”
former Downing Street aides have complained. Hers was the only
department in government that Number 10 felt it could not control and
May’s staff regularly clashed with Cameron’s.
Hard but fair
May built a
reputation for stubbornness bordering on obstinance.
“She’s a bloody
difficult woman,” veteran Tory MP Ken Clarke let slip in an
accidentally-honest assessment caught on tape last week. The remark
was immediately taken as a compliment by Team May, who realized their
candidate’s reputation for steeliness was a strength and not a
weakness at a time of political turmoil.
“She’s the only
person I’ve ever seen stand up to both George [Osborne] and Dave
[Cameron] in cabinet,” one former ministerial colleague said
admiringly. “They’d obviously planned a one-two on her but she
just sat there and said no. You have to admire that.”
Her reputation has
provoked comparisons to Britain’s first female prime minister
Margaret Thatcher, who famously “hand-bagged” Brussels until she
won Britain’s budget rebate and declared she was “not for
turning” when faced with massive protests over her economic policy
at home.
May’s supporters
admit that when she has made up her mind she is unshakeable.
But she is no
knee-jerk conservative. She has won praise from former Liberal
Democrat colleagues for her record in government, supporting gay
marriage, legislating against modern-day slavery and human
trafficking and overhauling the police.
Milibandism in
kitten heels
In May’s final
speech as home secretary Monday, she set out her pitch to be prime
minister. It was not just a step into the center ground, it was a
giant leap.
She called for an
industrial strategy, attacked George Osborne’s record as chancellor
and promised more help for ordinary families and “not just the
privileged few.”
“Good to see
Theresa May reaffirming her commitment to the 2015 election
manifesto,” wrote Stewart Wood, the former Labour leader Ed
Miliband’s policy guru. “Especially as it’s Labour’s one.”
In the same speech
she even risked distancing herself from Thatcher, the Tory
grassroots’ pin up.
“We don’t just
believe in individualism, but in society,” May said in sharp
contrast to Thatcher’s famous line that there is “no such thing
as society.”
Despite her
toughness on migration, her left-leaning policy prescriptions are not
so new. In a speech in 2013 she followed the same script, calling for
government action against corporatism and a greater focus on
fairness.
Tory to her core
Whatever noises the
new Conservative leader makes about bringing the country together
should not mask the fact that May hopes to crush the Labour Party,
which she has opposed since she was a teenager.
In her speech to the
Tories’ backbench 1922 committee on Monday, she was cheered to the
rafters by MPs who see her as one of their own in a way they never
did with Cameron.
There was loud
banging on the tables and walls of the small conference room in
Westminster’s Portcullis House as she mocked the Labour Party over
its leadership troubles.
“She had a great
reception,” one minister in the room said afterwards. “She got a
good laugh when she said ‘now this is how you do leadership
elections.'” The remark was a dig at Labour MPs who are currently
locked in a seemingly endless battle to get rid of their leader
Jeremy Corbyn.
May has been working
towards being prime minister since her days at university. Above all
she believes in competent government — something she regards as
incompatible with Labour rule.
.webp)
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário