The path to net zero

The path to net zero

By Mehreen Khan

March 4, 2020

Brussels’ climate law has barely hit the printing press but angst over what’s in it and what’s missing is rife.

In case you missed the hype, the European Commission will today formally publish its draft law that aims to make Europe the first co¬ntinent in the world to hit climate neutrality by 2050. The proposal is the centrepiece of Ursula von der Leyen’s Green¬¬ Deal and has been fast tracked¬ under her “first 100 days” policy pledges.

As the Financial Times reported over the weekend, a leaked version of the proposal contains some eye-catching elements that are likely to get on the wrong side of member states. The most contentious is a bid to use a powerful legal instrument whereby the commission can unilaterally set new EU-wide climate goals in 2035, 2040 and 2045 with limited input from MEPs and governments.

Environmental NGOs, MEPs and diplomats have since had time to pore over the details and work out what else they don’t like. The most common complaint is the absence of a new emissions target for 2030 — the most significant medium-term milestone the EU will have to hit on the path to net zero emissions.

The commission has said it wants to take its time before enshrining the 2030 target into stone. Von der Leyen has promised it will be in the range of 50-55 per cent cuts — with green advocates pushing for the higher end. The EU currently has a target to cut emissions by 40 per cent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels.

The new target will only be set in September — too late for those who want Europe to agree on the figure ahead of international climate talks in Glasgow in November.

A group of 12 countries, dubbed Ocean’s 12, also want the commission to get a move on. ¬¬¬They’ve written to green commissioner Frans Timmermans to call for a June publication to allow the European Parliament and member states to agree their positions and put on a united front at Glasgow.

The 2030 fight is about a few percentage points of cuts but risks laying bare divisions between Europe’s climate warriors and those who are more reticent about accelerating the pace of reductions. Those tensions may come to a boil during the German presidency of the EU in the second half of this year, when Angela Merkel is in the driving seat of Europe’s policy agenda.

“It is entirely in Merkel’s hands on whether we go fast [on the climate law] or slow down,” says Pascal Canfin, a French MEP who heads the parliament’s environment committee. “We need to know where Germany stands.”

Berlin was not among the 12 signatories calling for an earlier 2030 target but Merkel has made encouraging noises about the need for Europe to hit climate neutrality. The country’s presidency — which begins on July 1 —  could prove instrumental in ensuring that Europe is united at the Glasgow talks.

As for the commission, its climate law is an attempt to achieve a tricky balance between ambition and focus. A sparse text running to one page would probably have been approved at record speed by Brussels’ standards. As it stands, diplomats say the current draft contains plenty of elements that the member states will want to water down and the MEPs will want to beef up.

The climate law, like most EU legislation, risks descending into a time-consuming bun fight. However it pans out, the EU’s journey to net zero starts today.

Chart du jour: dead cat bounce?

Europe’s equity markets have stemmed coronavirus-induced declines but investors are still nervously waiting for global policymakers to plan a co-ordinated fiscal response. The FT reports on how Europe’s stocks stuttered after G7 finance ministers said they were ready to take action — but failed to specify exactly what.