There's an
unlikely beneficiary of coronavirus: The planet
Bex Wright
By Rebecca
Wright, CNN
Updated
0613 GMT (1413 HKT) March 17, 2020
Hong Kong
(CNN)Factories were shuttered and streets were cleared across China's Hubei
province as authorities ordered residents to stay home to stop the spread of
the coronavirus.
It seems the lockdown had an unintended benefit --
blue skies.
The average
number of "good quality air days" increased 21.5% in February,
compared to the same period last year, according to China's Ministry of Ecology
and Environment.
And Hubei
wasn't alone.
Satellite
images released by NASA and the European Space Agency show a dramatic reduction
in nitrogen dioxide emissions -- those released by vehicles, power plants and
industrial facilities -- in major Chinese cities between January and February.
The visible cloud of toxic gas hanging over industrial powerhouses almost
disappeared.
"This
is the first time I have seen such a dramatic drop-off over such a wide area
for a specific event," says Fei Liu, an air quality researcher at NASA's
Goddard Space Flight Center. "I am not surprised because many cities
nationwide have taken measures to minimize the spread of the virus."
A similar
pattern has emerged with carbon dioxide (CO2) -- released by burning fossil
fuels such as coal.
From
February 3 to March 1, CO2 emissions were down by at least 25% because of the
measures to contain the coronavirus, according to the Center for Research on
Energy and Clean Air (CREA), an air pollution research organization.
As the
world's biggest polluter, China contributes 30% of the world's CO2 emissions
annually, so the impact of this kind of drop is huge, even over a short period.
CREA estimates it is equivalent to 200 million tons of carbon dioxide -- more
than half the entire annual emissions output of the UK.
"As a
measure that took place effectively overnight, this is more dramatic than
anything else that I've seen in terms of the impact on emissions," said
Lauri Myllyvirta, lead analyst at CREA.
But while
lockdown measures designed to stem the spread of the virus have caused a
momentary uptick in China's pollution levels, experts warn that when the county
starts to reboot its economy the toxic chemicals could up to higher levels than
before the epidemic hit.
Coal
consumption falls
A fall in
oil and steel production, and a 70% reduction in domestic flights, contributed
to the fall in emissions, according to the CREA. But the biggest driver was the
sharp decline in China's coal usage.
China is
the world's biggest producer and consumer of coal, using this resource for 59%
of its energy in 2018. As well as running power plants and other heavy
industries, coal is also the sole heat source for millions of homes in the vast
rural areas of the country.
The
country's major coal-fired power stations saw a 36% drop in consumption from
February 3 to March 1 compared to the same period last year, according to CREA
analysis of WIND data service statistics.
"The
largest consumers of coal -- coal-fired power plants -- have been affected a
lot because electricity demand is down," said Myllyvirta. "I think
it's clear that this effect will continue for the next weeks and months,
because there has also been a major impact on the demand side of the
economy."
In 2017,
President Xi Jinping promised to make combating pollution one of China's
"three battles," and the following year the Ministry of Ecology and
Environment was created.
The
policies have resulted in a significant impact, with overall pollution levels
10% lower across Chinese cities between 2017 and 2018, according to a report
released last year by Greenpeace and AirVisual.
Climate
activists say the crisis could provide a window to ramp up these promised
reforms.
"We
would very much advocate for China to foster this opportunity to transform its
economy, to break apart from the old," said Li Shuo, a senior climate
policy adviser for Greenpeace East Asia.
"Revenge
pollution"
The
concern, Li said, is that once the coronavirus threat has passed, China will be
solely focused on restarting its economy, which was already hurting in the wake
of the US-China trade war. That could come at the expense of the environment.
"There
might be a round of economic stimulus which would inject cheap credits to heavy
industries in China, and as a result of that we might see increasing pollutants
and also carbon emissions in the second half of this year," Li added.
This
bounce-back effect -- which can sometimes reverse any overall drop in emissions
-- is something Li calls "revenge pollution." And in China it has
precedent.
In 2009,
the Chinese government launched a giant $586 billion stimulus package in
response to the global financial crisis -- the majority of which went to
large-scale infrastructure projects.
But the
resulting explosion in pollution in the following years -- particularly in the
"airpocalypse" winter of 2012-2013 -- led to a public outcry which
ushered in the Chinese government's first national air pollution action plan in
September 2013.
President
Xi has made clear that workers and factories need to ramp up activity as soon
as possible if the country is to avoid a steeper economic downturn.
Myllyvirta
hopes China has learned lessons from the past.
"It
was really those previous episodes where it boiled over," says Myllyvirta,
who also warns of a public backlash if the skies turn gray again.
"The
reduction in air pollution has been very clear so if the pollution does come
back, because of stimulus measures, because of heavy industry going into
overdrive to make up for lost time, there could be a counter reaction."
Hong Kong
pollution falls
In
neighboring Hong Kong, air quality has also improved since the city entered
partial shutdown mode to combat the spread of the coronavirus.
Key air
pollutants dropped by nearly a third from January to February, according to
data from Hong Kong University School of Public Health, which was analyzed by
environmental organization Clean Air Network.
Monitoring
of stations in the busiest areas of Hong Kong, including Central, Causeway Bay
and Mongkok, revealed that the fine particle pollutant PM2.5 decreased by 32%,
while the larger particle pollutant PM10 fell by up to 29%, and nitrogen
dioxide (NO2) was reduced by up to 22%.
Pollution
in the city is mostly caused by motor vehicles, marine vessels, and power
plants in Hong Kong and around the Pearl River Delta, the government says.
The
declines in harmful pollutants came in direct correlation with the Hong Kong
government's introduction of measures including working from home procedures,
the closure of some public facilities, and a partial closure of the border with
China. A drop in pollution in mainland China during this period also resulted
in less regional smog from the industrial powerhouse cities in the southern
province of Guangdong.
"There
are lots of people who work from home, and that has reduced the traffic and the
traffic congestion," said Patrick Fung, chairman of the Clean Air Network.
Hong Kong's measures were nowhere near as drastic as those in mainland China,
but there was still a significant impact.
Fung has
been campaigning about the long-term health impact of the air pollution in Hong
Kong, which he says causes on average 1,500 premature deaths per year in the
city.
"For
the last decade, Hong Kong's air pollution has been double the World Health
Organization's recommended safe level," Fung says. "Especially at the
roadside, where a lot of pedestrians and commuters are exposed to that kind of
toxic and carcinogenic air pollutants."
Hong Kong's
government did introduce a raft of green policies in its recent budget,
including a roadmap on cleaner public transport vehicles. Fung says the
announcement was a good "first step," but much more needs to be done.
Now, Fung
believes this brief period of cleaner air should send a message for people to
push for longer-term changes. "If we want the children, the elderly, who
could live healthily in Hong Kong, then we should think how to make business as
usual change," Fung says.
CNN's
Shanshan Wang contributed reporting from Beijing.
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