terça-feira, 15 de setembro de 2015

Spare a thought for Hungary. Europe’s emotional response to the migrant crisis is fraught with terrible danger.


OPINION
Spare a thought for Hungary
Europe’s emotional response to the migrant crisis is fraught with terrible danger.

By MELIK KAYLAN 9/15/15, 5:30 AM CET Updated 9/15/15, 7:21 AM CET / http://www.politico.eu/article/spare-a-thought-for-hungary-migration-crisis-east-west-divide/

The feverish rancor and self-loathing among Europeans over the migrant crisis should alert us to a potential catastrophe that would eclipse even the Syrian boat people’s suffering: the danger of instability within Europe itself.
Under constant pressure from recurrent crises — the great recession, Ukraine, Greece, Islamist terror — the EU’s fabric is showing signs of acute stress. And now the picture of young Aylan Kurdi, dead on a beach, has set off a firestorm of acrimony across and within European national borders, with ugly accusations of racism and fascism, avowals of shame at being European, and name-calling between countries.

The old familiar hostilities are beginning to resurface: the continent threatening to ostracize the U.K. for not taking enough refugees; Greece and Italy sick of bearing the burden for others; and Hungary resenting Germany and Austria for inducing migrant chaos inside its borders.
We mustn’t forget that Europe itself lay in ruins within living memory of many citizens, and many more remember the continent more recently divided by tanks and walls and barbed wire backed by nuclear weapons. No doubt this should make Europeans especially sensitive to the plight of refugees fleeing from similar horrors. But it should make Europeans even more sensitive to their own survival foremost.
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The first point to understand, one that cannot be emphasized enough, is that Europe’s resistance to uncontrolled inflows of migrants stems not from a sense of superiority or strength, or racial snobbery, but from a fraught sense of weakness, an abiding fear of itself and its own history of fragmentation and strife. The EU’s leaders know what a creaky and contrary architecture of nationalities they’re upholding. They know how constantly it cracks, threatening increasingly to do so irreparably. They know where it might lead. Moral outrage at their caution, so evident in recent days, only adds to the strain. Sir Bob Geldof calling the U.K. “a f—–g disgrace” is a typical, and typically nauseating, example.
All of this might seem like whining when thousands risk death on the high seas. But it will hardly reward their ordeal if their seat of refuge becomes unstable. Witness the plight of Turkey, housing over a million Syrian refugees, hurtling towards a civil war in part triggered by the Syrian conflict which aggravated its ethnic tensions. Now consider the pressures on Europe, already troubled by problems with assimilating a large Muslim population. Can we not imagine how Charlie Hebdo haunts the conscience of EU leaders poised to take in migrants by the thousands, perhaps ultimately millions, with no end in sight to the numbers? In the case of Germany, its Vice-Chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, has now said that it could take 500,000 a year, no doubt goaded by ubiquitous reminders of its Nazi past. One wonders what the recently reunited, formerly East German, citizens make of this declaration.
The East-West divide in Europe is one of its many tectonic flaws. Countries that finally escaped from decades of imposed Marxist internationalism and gained their right to unfettered nation-statehood by joining the West now find themselves shackled to another supranational system enforcing its own rules of diversity and multiculturalism. They thought they were finally allowed to recover their own identity, traditions and customs, their sense of “ethnos,” of being a cohesive “people.” Instead, Hungarians get roundly abused by one and all, not least by another of their former tormentors, Germany, for insisting on their national inviolability. Indeed, they have to suffer moral shame for harboring such aspirations at all, now equated with ethnic elitism, racism, nativism and the like.
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The outcome of this drift is not hard to foresee. As the EU’s dominant capitals demand that all constituent members fall in line with migrant-intake numbers and distribution, the Eastern bloc of populations from Poland to Romania will want to resist. They never invaded anybody; they don’t have sins to expiate, but are dictated to by the guilt of others. Who knows what percentages of total population make for proper assimilation? Europe has shown no real talent in making that calculation up to now and the consequences are not pretty.
The intake will reach whatever arbitrary limit was dreamed up under global media pressure, at which point the same disorderly farce of recent weeks will recur — repeatedly — until the Union turns against itself for this and other reasons as it did three times last century. If you think the scenario too fanciful, consider the indigenous popular support for the Orbáns and Le Pens, and how we legitimize them by driving decent patriotic folk into their camp. Consider Vladimir Putin waiting in the wings, acting as their champion. Consider Europe’s past and its likely future.

Melik Kaylan, an Anglo-Turkish writer based in New York, is the co-author of “The Russia-China Axis: The New Cold War and America’s Crisis of Leadership” (Encounter Books, 2014). He tweets at @melkayan

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