Few diplomats believe that
relocation policy will actually work
What does
it say about Europe’s refugee policy that many of those setting it find
themselves agreeing more with Viktor Orban than Angela Merkel? It is certainly
not the razor wire or tear gas the Hungarian prime minister has deployed at his
country’s borders that has won over converts, nor his incendiary speeches about
the coming Islamification of the continent.
As
frequently happens with the combative Mr Orban, his tactics and rhetoric have
made it nearly impossible for serious policymakers publicly to ally themselves
with Budapest
But
privately, many admit that the man has a point. On Tuesday, unless an
eleventh-hour compromise is found, EU interior ministers, at the German
chancellor’s insistence, will force all countries to accept a portion of
160,000 Syrian, Eritrean and potentially Iraqi asylum-seekers that have arrived
in overburdened Greece and Italy in a decision taken by a majority vote — an
act of diplomatic bloodletting rarely seen in Brussels’ corridors of power.
The lack of
diplomatic nicety is only part of what has unsettled even those sympathetic to
the Berlin-backed policy. Outvoting Czechs, Slovaks and Hungarians — and
strong-arming Poles, Latvians and Romanians — on an issue so central to a
country’s sovereignty, and so politically radioactive, has left diplomats from
other EU members wringing their hands at what they are about to do. Their
country, after all, could be next.
The
arm-twisting from Berlin has added to the sense of unease. German leaders have
publicly and privately warned their former Communist neighbours that the EU
development money promised to the bloc’s poorer east could be withdrawn if they
do not agree to refugee sharing — a linkage so blatant that more than one
diplomat used the word “blackmail” to describe it.
Even this
German geopolitical power play might have been overlooked but for one thing:
very few diplomats in Brussels
As refugees
drown at sea or wilt under a Balkan sun as they dash from border to border, EU
capitals are debating a relocation scheme that will take months to implement.
EU interior ministers agreed in July to move 40,000 refugees from overwhelmed Greece and Italy
Most experts
believe that if tens of thousands of refugees are moved to EU countries where
they do not want to be, they will simply hop on a train to Germany
While all
this political capital is being spent on a plan most think will not have any
real impact, scant attention is being paid to addressing the problem at the
source. The UN has for months been warning anyone who will listen that its
refugee food programme in Jordan ,
Lebanon and Turkey Europe ’s promise.
So why is
the EU about to undergo a week of damaging discord for a policy that has little
chance of success? The answer, many diplomats believe, is domestic German
politics.
Initial
admiration for German generosity has given way to impatience. Many officials
involved in the talks suspect that Ms Merkel first signalled Germany ’s open arms to refugees as a way to
counter the reproval she suffered on the global stage after Berlin
strong-armed Greece
That signal
backfired badly, those officials say, encouraging thousands of refugees to hop
into rickety boats, cross the Hungarian border and find their way to Germany Berlin to reimpose border
controls on its frontier with Austria
Forcing
other countries to agree to take in thousands of refugees is a symbolic gesture
intended to reassure the German public that the EU is ready to share the
burden, even if it has little practical effect.
Like so
much that happens in Brussels , other European
leaders are being forced to make political sacrifices to ensure domestic
political tranquillity in Germany
peter.spiegel@ft.com
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