Merkel’s welcome to refugees comes back to bite her / Financial Times

September 14, 2015 6:06 pm

Merkel’s welcome to refugees comes back to bite her

By Stefan Wagstyl in Berlin

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/60264684-5af4-11e5-a28b-50226830d644.html#axzz3ltBJJ3zV

Chancellor Angela Merkel knew her decision earlier this month to relax the rules on Syrian refugees flooding into Germany involved risks.

But she cannot have expected that she would run into trouble quite so soon. A week after she announced that Europe’s biggest economy was in a position to welcome far more asylum seekers than previously thought possible, Ms Merkel has gone into retreat and imposed emergency border controls.

Before that, the chancellor was hailed as a saviour, not least by the asylum seekers, with some bearing banners saying “Merkel is our mother”. Germans spoke proudly of nothing less than a new chapter in their history, taking the country further away from associations with its grisly Nazi past.

While the reimposition of border controls, in line with EU law, is partial and temporary the mixed-messages it sends reveal the pressures facing Ms Merkel at home, in the EU and in the Middle East.

“I would not say there is panic [in Berlin],” says Carsten Nickel, an analyst with Teneo Intelligence, a political research company. “But they are feeling a little overwhelmed.”

In spite of government denials that its decision to relax the rules was a mistake it is clear that confidence in Ms Merkel’s judgment has been dented. The liberal Süddeutsche newspaper said: “Borders open, borders closed. Nobody dares to forecast what will happen . . . However, many ask whether the chancellor has any plan at all.”

The immediate reason for Ms Merkel’s shift is the worsening shortage of beds in refugee reception centres, notably in the southern region of Bavaria, where the bulk of the migrants have been arriving. Officials argue that a temporary reprieve will give regional administrations time to organise new arrival centres, for example in sports halls.

Also, Ms Merkel is faced with growing complaints from political leaders in Bavaria, which is ruled by the conservative CSU, regional sister party to her own CDU. CSU chief Horst Seehofer condemned her “open-doors” decision as a mistake and his colleagues complained other German regions were failing to pull their weight by taking refugees away from Bavaria in line with a longstanding countrywide pact. Mr Seehofer on Monday welcomed the decision to impose controls as “an opportunity to bring order into the whole system”.

Meanwhile, Berlin wants to apply the maximum pressure to fellow EU states that have mostly left it to Germany, Sweden and Austria to accept the latest wave of asylum seekers. Germany is particularly incensed that eastern European states are dragging their feet even after benefiting greatly from western European aid, with Germany paying the biggest share.

German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier failed to win significant concessions at a Prague meeting last week with his Czech, Slovak, Hungarian and Polish counterparts.

With EU interior ministers meeting on Monday — and a possible national leaders summit being touted — Berlin sent what a senior CDU official said was “a clear signal” to its reluctant EU partners.

“It is clear that our decisions [to reimpose border controls] are influenced by action in Europe and by simply looking at the situation in Munich station and other places in Germany,” said Steffen Seibert, a government spokesman.

With Austria following Germany in bringing back border controls, pressures will increase in Hungary, where many thousands of refugees arrive after crossing the Balkans. With the exit routes to Austria restricted, these new arrivals might force Budapest into a compromise with Berlin.

However, the real test of Sunday’s decision will be how it influences the refugees. Ms Merkel’s earlier welcoming statements generated a wave of euphoria about Germany, possibly encouraging more Syrians and others to head for the country. Wild rumours spread — for example that Germany was sending ships to bring asylum seekers directly from the eastern Mediterranean to Hamburg.

For the moment, the German public strongly backs the chancellor’s initial welcoming stance. But even government ministers wonder how long it will last.

Jens Spahn, a deputy finance minister, said in a weekend interview: “This [mood] is changing by the hour. The debate will look quite different in a few days’ time.”