“Croatia
faces a historical election, as a mass wave of migrants threatens the
country” — Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
Croatian
election hinges on migration and the economy
The
country’s two main parties are neck-and-neck ahead of the vote.
By ANDREW MACDOWALL
11/7/15, 5:13 PM CET Updated 11/7/15, 5:46 PM CET
ZAGREB — The
Croatian parliamentary election Sunday was supposed to be dominated
by the struggling economy and corruption scandals, but it’s
garnering broader European interest instead for the role that the
migration crisis will play in the outcome.
More than 300,000
refugees and migrants have crossed the country of 4 million in recent
months, but unlike other parts of Central Europe, the political right
has not been able to exploit the issue for electoral gain.
Polls show the
ruling center-left Social Democrats (SDP) and the conservative
Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) each with the support of about a
third of the electorate. That means neither one is likely to win a
majority of the 151-member parliament, in the country’s first
election since joining the EU in 2013.
Prime Minister Zoran
Milanović has scrambled back into contention in recent weeks, in
part thanks to his handling of the migration crisis, which has
balanced a humane response to those crossing his country with a
commitment to protect its borders. Croatia is at the frontline of the
EU, though not in the Schengen zone, making it a crucial link in the
route taken by refugees heading for Germany.
The politics of
migration
The HDZ flirted with
pushing the crisis to the forefront of the campaign. Conservative
President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović toured the parts of the country
affected and suggested that Croatia build a border fence like Hungary
has constructed on its frontiers with both Serbia and Croatia.
However, Milanović’s
government retains the support of two-thirds of Croatians for its
management of the situation, with migrants moved swiftly through the
country to neighboring Slovenia — helped by the fact that most
refugees have no intention of settling in one of the EU’s poorest
countries.
“Grabar-Kitarović
marched all over saying that the government wasn’t ready, but in
fact the government really got organized, and reacted very quickly,”
says Krešimir Macan, a Croatian political consultant.
There is also
sympathy for the refugees, as memories of the dislocations caused by
the 1991-1995 Yugoslav Wars are still fresh in Croatia, not least in
the eastern provinces where the Syrians, Iraqis, and others arrive
and are temporarily housed in camps.
The HDZ started the
campaign with promises to enact sweeping reforms to get Croatia’s
economy moving again — after six consecutive years of recession,
the economy is expected to grow by a sluggish 1.1 percent this year
and 1.4 percent in 2016.
Playing the
nationalist card
But in recent weeks
it has slipped back into flag-waving. Leader Tomislav Karamarko has
repeatedly evoked the name of Croatia’s wartime president Franjo
Tuđman, founder of the HDZ, and hinted that the SDP is a
Yugoslav-era throwback which never wanted Croatia to be independent.
The government,
meanwhile, emphasizes the economic recovery and portrays Karamarko,
once head of the internal security agency and then interior minister,
as a shadowy figure. The HDZ has also been trying to rebuild support
after former prime minister and HZD leader Ivo Sanader was jailed on
corruption charges.
“Croatia faces a
historical election, as a mass wave of migrants threatens the
country” — Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.
There are
similarities with Poland’s election last month, with a
socially-conservative party shunned by some urban liberals as
jingoistic facing off against a ruling party associated with a
liberal elite seen as discredited and out-of-touch.
Despite its
increasingly strident patriotic rhetoric, if elected the HDZ is
unlikely to implement a tougher approach to refugees than the current
government. The party — and Karamarko in particular — deeply
values its ties with the European People’s Party and specifically
with German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU.
“They will simply
support whatever the Germans say. Merkel is running the show and they
will listen to what the Germans say,” said Macan.
However, Hungary’s
Viktor Orbán is trying hard to recruit a regional ally to his
anti-migration crusade by endorsing Karamarko. “Croatia faces a
historical election, as a mass wave of migrants threatens the
country,” Orbán wrote in a letter read out at a party rally. “A
change is desperately needed, and I see the one man who can do it:
Tomislav Karamarko.”
But party sources
say that electoral speeches should not be taken at face-value, and
that the party is trying to shift towards a modern European
conservative stance, quietly embracing economic liberalism, without
losing its core support.
Post-election
scenarios
In any case, the HDZ
is highly unlikely to win a majority of the sort that Orbán has
enjoyed. The party is widely expected to win the most votes —
Croatian polls tend to underestimate HDZ’s support — but forming
a coalition with a workable majority will be very difficult thanks to
the large number of smaller parties jostling for power, each with
their own demands.
Concerns about the
effect of weeks of horse-trading with smaller factions while the
refugee crisis continues and the economy stagnates is reportedly
leading to growing pressure on the SDP and HDZ to form a grand
coalition.
“The leaders of
center right and left may be left without enough physical votes to
put together a coalition,” Luka Orešković, a Harvard academic
with close links in Zagreb’s political circles, told POLITICO. “In
this case, as diplomatic inputs suggest, a grand coalition might be
suggested.”
A figure from the
last HDZ government concurred.
“Croatia may be
heading for its first-ever grand coalition since independence,” he
told POLITICO.
Authors:
Andrew MacDowall
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